Three generations of Texas' most famous family - Neil, Barbara, Jenna and George H.W. - watch George W.'s nominating party at Madison Square Garden.

September 1, 2004

Despite Chance for Big Texas Victory, Bush
Less Popular than Nixon, Reagan and LBJ

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

NEW YORK - Barring a dramatic and unforeseen shift of public opinion, President George W. Bush appears to be substantially stronger in Texas heading into the campaign's final two months than he was at the close of his first White House race four years ago.

But even with the home state advantage, former President George H.W. Bush's oldest son doesn't appear to be quite as popular in the Lone Star State as California Republicans Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan were in their White House re-election bids. The current President Bush seems to be almost as popular as Texas Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson was among Texans during his only race for the presidency - but not quite.

A Scripps Howard Texas Poll this week shows Bush with 57 support among Texas voters compared to 33 percent for Democratic nominee John Kerry. Nine percent of Texans polled were undecided - and one percent turned thumbs down on both Bush and Kerry. The Texas Poll shows Bush with a bigger margin of support than Survey USA found the president to have in his home state in a poll conducted 10 days ago. Bush had 58 percent in the Survey USA poll - one point better than the Scripps Howard survey. But Democratic opponent from Massachusetts saw his Texas support slip four points from the level recorded in the Survey USA poll, which showed Bush with a 21-point home state lead. Kerry had cut Bush's margins to 18 percent and 17 percent respectively in Rasmussen polls of Texas voters in May and June when the president mustered only 55 percent support from fellow Texans.

With several Congressional and state House races on the line in November, Texas Democrats have been hoping to cut off potential Bush coattails or to hold them to a minimum by chopping the president's 59 percent Texas support to 55 percent or less this year. Bush defeated former Vice-President Al Gore in Texas by a 21 percent margin four years ago when Ralph Nader received more than two percent of the vote. If the Scripps Howard numbers are an accurate reflection of voting probabilities in Texas this year, Democrats would have to collect about four out of every five undecided votes just to keep Bush at his 2000 percentage. Democrats would need seven out of every 10 undecided votes to prevent Bush from winning by an even bigger margin this year than he did four years ago. To achieve the goal of reducing Bush's Texas support to 55 percent, Democrats would have to receive all remaining undecided votes and wrestle away votes that voters already have pledged to Bush in the pre-election surveys.

On the other hand, Bush would have to pick up almost all of the remaining undecided votes in Texas to finish stronger than Nixon did during his campaign for the White House in 1972. Democrats have complained in past elections that the Texas poll is often weighted in such a way that gives Republicans an artificial advantage. But if the poll announced this week is on the money, Bush would have to claim about seven out of every 10 undecided votes to surpass Reagan and Johnson as the presidential candidates who received the second and third highest percentages of support in Texas in the past four decades.

Nixon won more than 66 percent of the Texas vote when he and Spiro Agnew faced a Democratic ticket of George McGovern and Sargent Shriver in 1972. McGovern's campaign had been crippled when his initial VP nominee - Thomas Eagleton - dropped off the ticket amid reports that he'd received shock treatment for a psychological disorder. Reagan pulled more than 63 percent of the vote in Texas en route to an easy victory over liberal Democrats Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. Johnson also won over 63 percent of his home state vote in defeating Barry Goldwater in 1964 - a year after the Texan assumed the presidency in the wake of John Kennedy's assassination.

Despite calling Texas home, Bush's father only managed 56 percent support among Texans in 1988 when Texas Democrat Lloyd Bentsen was Michael Dukakis' running mate. The first Bush president was held to less than 41 percent support in Texas in 1992 when Bill Clinton claimed 37 percent of the vote and Texan H. Ross Perot finished with 22 percent.

Reagan only collected 55 percent of the Texas vote in his initial White House campaign against Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter, the last Democrat at the top of the ticket to carry the Lone Star State. Carter won 51 percent of the Texas vote compared to 48 percent for Gerald Ford in 1976.

Why isn't Bush as popular in Texas as a pair of California Republicans were when they were seeking re-election in the 1970s and 1980s? "you can sum it up in one word - Iraq," said one key Republican strategist.