CD 28 Race May Shape Up

August 8, 2006

Valley Power Brokers See County Judge
as Best Hope for Special U.S. House Race

Despite Primary Defeat, Garcia Appears to Be Consensus
Choice for Race Versus Cuellar with Part of Hidalgo in CD 28

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

Political power brokers in the Rio Grande Valley appear prepared to rally behind outgoing Hidalgo County Judge Ramon Garcia in a special fall election for a South Texas congressional seat if he decides to challenge U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo in a contest that a court ordered as part of the latest redistricting plan.

Garcia was the consensus choice among business and political leaders who huddled late Monday to see if they could agree on a potential candidate to get behind in a race against Cuellar in a newly-designed district that now includes about a third of Hidalgo County and other parts of the Valley that weren't in it before. The meeting was apparently called by U.S. Rep. Ruben Hinojosa, a Mercedes Democrat who represents one of the five Texas districts that a three-judge panel redrew in order to fix another district that the U.S. Supreme Court declared to be in violation of the Voting Rights Act.

Garcia, a highly successful trial lawyer who lost his bid for re-election in a Democratic primary nail-biter in March, is expected to make a decision on a race for Congress within the next day or two. Leaders in the western part of the Valley see Garcia as viable because he has extensive name identification in South Texas, the ability to fund a campaign with his own personal wealth and the personality and style it would take to run an aggressive campaign like Cuellar has been known to do so well in races for Congress and the Legislature over the years.

While Democratic voters ousted the incumbent county leader in favor of former County Clerk J.D. Salinas in the primary battle for county judge earlier this year, Garcia is not considered to be damaged goods because he only lost by 296 votes in a contest that turned out to be one of the most competitive primary races in the state in 2006. The publicity that Garcia reaped in a failed re-election bid could actually prove to be a benefit in a special congressional contest as a result of higher name recognition that both candidates enjoy in its wake.

While the spotlight so far has been on the plight of Republican U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla of San Antonio and potential challengers in the district that inspired the latest changes to the Texas U.S. House map, a decision by Garcia to take on Cuellar could turn the Congressional District 28 race into the hottest special election contest in the state this fall. Three other Texas congressional members - Republican U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith of San Antonio, Democratic U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Austin and Hinojosa - appear to be less vulnerable in reconfigured districts than Cuellar and Bonilla. The deadline for submitting applications for the five special elections is August 25.

The stage for a showdown in CD 28 was set when the three judges assigned to the redistricting case moved most of the Bexar County voters that Cuellar represents into Bonilla's district and replaced them with about 190,000 Hidalgo County residents and all of the people who live in nearby Starr and Jim Hogg counties. Cuellar picked up more than 90,000 Webb County voters who'd remained in CD 23 when Republicans shifted half of the county that's anchored by Laredo into CD 28 in an attempt to protect Bonilla amid declining support among Hispanics. With Laredo split down the middle in a district that stretches to San Antonio, Cuellar defeated former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in a bitterly contested race in 2004 and held him at bay in a primary election rematch this year. Cuellar's initial victory came two years after he'd lost a close race against Bonilla in CD 23.

The judges responsible for the latest reshuffling of congressional boundaries took a chunk of the Rio Grande Valley from districts represented by Hinojosa and Doggett and put it in CD 28 to compensate for the loss of San Antonio voters who will cast ballots in CD 23 on the newly tailored map. CD 28 - as a result - now has almost as many voters in Hidalgo County as it has in Webb County. Most of the Hidalgo County residents who've been moved into CD 28 live in McAllen.

While Cuellar carried Webb County with almost 85 percent of the primary vote in March, he's not popular with some of his hometown's most high-profile Democratic leaders including former gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez and State Senator Judith Zaffirini. A bitter feud erupted between Sanchez and Cuellar in the early stages of the governor race four years ago - and Zaffirini backed Bonilla when Cuellar ran against him in the general election that fall.

Cuellar angered some Democrats when he campaigned for then-Governor George W. Bush in his first White House race before resigning his Texas House seat in early 2001 after being appointed by Republican Governor Rick Perry as secretary of state. Rodriguez, who represented CD 28 for eight years, had campaigned for Cuellar in his battle with Bonilla in 2002 and considered him a good friend before losing to him in a primary election that required several recounts two years ago.

Since winning a seat in Congress, Cuellar has been more of an independent member than a diehard Democrat who votes in lockstep with the leadership. But after the close verdict in 2004, Cuellar won the Democratic nomination in round two against Rodriguez this year with more than 53 percent of the vote. Rodriguez received less than 41 percent while former U.S. Senate nominee Victor Morales put his name on the ballot and picked up the remaining six percent even though he didn't live in the district.

Other names that have been mentioned as potential challengers in the special election in CD 28 include several area lawmakers such as Democratic State Reps. Kino Flores of Mission, Veronica Gonzales of McAllen, Aaron Peña of Edinburg and Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City.

Rodriguez, former San Antonio City Council member Julian Castro and other Democrats are contemplating races against Bonilla in CD 23. On the Republican side, Laredo businessman Francisco "Quico" Canseco may also be interested in a race for CD 23 or CD 28 as a Republican candidate.