April 6, 2005

Democrats Set Sights on Two Dozen
Incumbents for 2006 Texas Elections

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

Democratic leaders have already drawn tentative targets on more than a dozen Texas House Republicans and several of their own as they prepare to run in next year's elections on a novel platform as the party that fought higher taxes on the middle class and small businesses. The Democrats are also planning to go after several Republican members of Congress from Texas in 2006 and one fellow Democrat in the spring primary election.

The aggressive early strategy is a work in progress by the same general forces that helped engineer the defeats of a handful of fellow House Democrats and three Republican incumbents at the polls last year. The Democrats' think their Republican adversaries have handed them an ideal issue on which to run in 2006 with the tax shift proposed in House Bill 3. Democrats also will try to capitalize on votes by members who oppose Children's Health Insurance Program funding at 2002 levels in the debate on the state budget today. The reductions in CHIP funding in 2003 proved to be a potent issue in successful Democratic campaigns last year against former State Reps. Talmadge Heflin, Arlene Wohlgemuth, Jack Stick and Ken Mercer. Democrats also plan to play up their roles in fights against campaign finance loopholes, higher education tuition hikes and toll roads during the elections next year.

Democrats say they will try to make U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay a main issue in congressional races - and they plan to start by targeting the powerful Sugar Land Republican himself. Democratic leaders and strategists also plan to take aim at U.S. Reps. John Carter of Georgetown, Ron Paul of Surfside Beach and Lamar Smith of San Antonio in hopes of narrowing the 21-11 advantage that the GOP holds in the congressional delegation after picking up six seats last year in the wake of the redistricting in 2003.

Several of the Republican incumbents that Democrats will try to oust from the state House are veteran legislators who are members of Speaker Tom Craddick's leadership team. The Democrats are planning to set their sights high by taking on Republican State Rep. Joe Nixon, the House leader on tort reform in his role as the Civil Practices Committee chairman, and State Rep. Kent Grusendorf, an Arlington Republican who's leading the fight on school finance as the powerful chairman of the Public Education Committee. The list of probable GOP targets also includes State Affairs Chairman David Swinford of Dumas, Higher Education Chair Geanie Morrison of Victoria, Urban Affairs Chairman Robert Talton of Pasadena and County Affairs Chairman Ray Allen, a Grand Prairie Republican who was targeted last year as well.

Veteran State Reps. Warren Chisum of Pampa, Tony Goolsby of Dallas and Gene Seaman of Corpus Christi are also on the list of GOP members who Democrats hope to retire from the House at the ballot box in 2006. Three of the targeted Republican House members - State Reps. Todd Baxter of Austin, Martha Wong of Houston and Bill Zedler of Arlington - are members of the sophomore class that was initially elected in the fall of 2002. Democrats tried without success to knock out Baxter and Wong in their bids for re-election last year. Wong won more than 53 percent of the vote against a Democrat who didn't have near as much money to spend on the race. Baxter held on to win re-election to a second term by a margin of only 147 votes against a Democrat who did have the resources needed to be competitive in that district. Zedler captured 60 percent of the vote against the same Democratic foe in both 2002 and 2004.

The Democrats will also try to pick off freshman State Rep. Roy Blake Jr., a Nacogdoches Republican whose father served as a Democrat in both the House and the Senate. It's not clear at this point if the Democrats will try to wrestle back seats that State Reps. John Otto of Dayton and Charles "Doc" Anderson of Waco won last year by defeating Democratic incumbents.

Swinford, Talton, Chisum and Seaman were all unopposed on the general election ballot six months ago. Nixon held off a primary challenger who managed to get only 27 percent of the vote despite support from trial lawyers seeking revenge for the incumbent's starring role in the medical malpractice liability debate. Morrison won easily against an independent candidate while Goolsby and Grusendorf overcame Democratic opposition with 53 percent and 63 percent of the general election vote respectively.

On paper, the Democrats' best chances for upsets would most likely be in the districts represented by Wong, Nixon, Goolsby, Allen, Zedler and Baxter. The seats held by Talton, Morrison and Grusendorf would present uphill challenges for Democrats while the Panhandle districts represented by Swinford and Chisum would appear to be all but out of reach barring something unforeseen between now and November 2006. Swinford's seat will be vacant if he follows through with plans to run for agriculture commissioner next year.

Democrats are optimistic about their chances in Houston against Nixon and Wong as a result of a large population of Vietnamese-American voters in their west Houston districts. The Democrats think Vietnamese-Americans will turn against Republicans in the wake of a dispute that put State Rep. Hubert Vo's election in limbo for several months.

Democrats also think Seaman is vulnerable based on fairly close general election votes in his initial election to the House in 1996 and again in 2002. But Seaman doesn't appear to be worried. Told recently that Democrats might field an opponent, Seaman said there are no Democrats who can beat him in his district and that the D's will be throwing their money away if they try.

Four Democrats could face challenges from within in next year's Democratic primary election: State Reps. Al Edwards of Houston, Kino Flores of Mission, Vilma Luna of Corpus Christi and Mike Villarreal of San Antonio. All four have been members of Craddick's leadership team since the GOP claimed control of the House more than two years ago. Edwards, however, is the only one of the four Democrats who might be targeted to cross party lines in votes on the House floor on school finance and taxes this year. Villarreal backed HB 3 in committee then cast a vote against it on the floor. While Edwards doesn't appear worried about opposition from within his own party's primary, other Democrats who've been close to Craddick appear to have taken some notice of the plight of five former Democratic colleagues who were ousted by primary voters after being targeted by party leaders a year ago. Two other House Democrats - State Rep. Allan Ritter of Nederland and former State Rep. Dan Ellis of Livingston - overcame primary challenges fueled by party leaders. But Ellis lost in the fall election to Otto.

U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo already faces a probable primary challenge next year from the Democrat he knocked out of Congress last year - Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio. State Rep. Richard Raymond of Laredo has been raising funds for a possible race for Cuellar's seat. The Democratic state leadership may not take sides between the two possible challengers if both make that race. But at this point it plans to oppose Cuellar's re-election one way or the other.

None of the intramural targets at this point are set in stone - and Democratic strategists could end up adding more Republicans and Democrats to their list between now and 2006.