December 19, 2005

Republican Polling in Democrats' Districts
Suggests that Gay Marriage Could Be Issue

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

Republicans have been gauging support for same sex marriages and Democratic state representatives in polling that got under way during the past few days in Texas House districts that the GOP sees within striking distance in next year's elections.

The questions have come up in telephone calls to residents in the districts represented by at least two House Democrats - State Reps. Stephen Frost of Atlanta and David Leibowitz of San Antonio - and several other Democratic incumbents can probably assume the polling will be conducted in their districts as well if it hasn't already started. Calls to at least one of the districts posed an additional question about whether U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay was being treated fairly by Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle - a reference to the money laundering case that prosecutors are pursuing against the powerful Republican leader from Sugar Land.

The calls, which include a disclaimer that says they are being sponsored by the Republican Party, are the second wave of push polling in state House districts held by lawmakers that the state GOP would like to retire at the polls in 2006. The initial polling concentrated on districts represented by about a dozen Republican House members who have crossed party lines on key votes on issues such as education, taxes and spending on programs like children's health insurance.

Republicans who want to cleanse the GOP's legislative delegation in the primary elections and those who hope to knock off Democrats in the fall have two more weeks to identify potential candidates and to recruit them to file before the January 2 deadline for submitting campaign applications for the 2006 vote.

Whether the Republicans behind the targeting push can use the homosexual marriage issue against Democrats effectively remains to be seen. While Democrats cast all 29 votes in late April against a measure that put a proposed gay marriage ban to a statewide vote in November, the House Journal shows that 15 Democratic members voted for HJR 6 by Republican State Rep. Warren Chisum of Pampa.

Frost cast a vote in favor of the measure to let voters decide if gay marriages should remain illegal in Texas. Three Democrats - including Leibowitz - and one Republican told the journal clerk after the proposal had passed that they'd intended to vote for it as well. Leibowitz said he'd been shown as present but not voting when he had intended to vote for the measure that authorized the statewide vote on the same-sex marriage prohibition.

Three out of every four Texans who voted in the November 8 election backed the gay marriage ban that was contained in a constitutional amendment dubbed Proposition 2. An analysis of the statewide vote indicates that a significant number of Democrats voted for the ban on same sex marriages while some Republicans opposed it. Prop. 2 was approved by large margins in counties that are heavily Hispanic with Democratic voting majorities.

Leibowitz and Frost are both lawyers who had to overcome opposition in the primary and general elections last year to win their first terms in the Legislature's lower chamber. Frost beat Republican H.E. (Pete) Snow - a former city councilman in Texarkana - to stake claim to a Northeast Texas seat that Democrat Barry Telford had represented for 18 years.

Leibowitz had a steeper hill to climb en route to unseating a first-term Republican incumbent - Ken Mercer - who'd won the HD 117 seat in 2002 after a Democratic nominee who'd been favored was indicted in connection with a public corruption probe. Leibowitz didn't get a shot at Mercer until after he won a primary runoff against an opponent that some Democrats had considered the initial favorite to win the nomination in a House district that stretches across western Bexar County.

The districts represented by Leibowitz and Frost - like those held by other Democrats who could be targeted next year - have leaned Democratic with an ever-growing number of Republican voters who give the GOP cause for guarded optimism about picking them up at the polls next year. Frost so far has drawn no apparent incumbent with only two weeks to go before the filing deadline. San Antonio attorney Ted Kenyon has filed to run for the Republican nomination and a chance to challenge Leibowitz in the fall.

Republicans think they have better odds in East Texas districts represented by Democratic State Reps. Mark Homer of Paris, Chuck Hopson of Jacksonville and Jim McReynolds of Lufkin. All three are expected to face general election opposition in 2006. The GOP sees potential opportunities to pick up seats held by several other Democrats around the state including State Reps. Mark Strama of Austin, Hubert Vo of Houston and David Farabee of Wichita Falls. Republicans also have an eye on seats held by Democratic State Reps. Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles of Alice, Veronica Gonzales of McAllen, Robby Cook of Eagle Lake and Patrick Rose of Dripping Springs.

Strama, who lives in the state's only county where Prop. 2 failed, voted against the measure to send it to voters. So did Vo. Gonzales registered as present but not voting on HJR 6. All of the other Democrats who might be targeted next year by the GOP voted for HJR 6.