|
Governor
|
Rasmussen |
Zogby |
| Bell |
13 |
21 |
| Friedman |
19 |
21 |
| Perry |
40 |
38 |
| Strayhorn |
20 |
11 |
|
U.S. Senate |
Rasmussen |
Zogby |
| Hutchison |
58 |
52.2 |
| Radnofsky |
31 |
36.7 |
July 25, 2006
Perry
Holds Steady Lead as New Polls
Fluctuate Widely for Strayhorn and Bell
By
Mike Hailey
Capitol
Inside Editor
For Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn,
the latest Rasmussen poll is a case of one step
forward, two steps back. A new Zogby poll is more
like a free fall for her.
A Rasmussen survey of 500 Texas voters shows
Strayhorn moving into second place in the governor's
race with her share of support up from 19 percent
to 20 percent support. But while Strayhorn gained
one point, Republican Governor Rick Perry
jumped two as Rasmussen showed him hovering above
the pack of contenders with 40 percent support
in a July poll.
|
Democrat
Slices Senator's
Lead in One Poll and Falls
Further Behind
in Another
Democrat Barbara Radnofsky is
either closing the gap quickly on U.S. Senator
Kay Bailey Hutchison or
fading into the dust fast - depending on
which July poll turns out to be the most
accurate once the general election ballots
are cast four monthjs from now.
According to a new Wall Street Journal/Zogby
poll, Radnofsky has sliced the Republican
incumbent's lead in the U.S. Senate race
from more than 23 points in June to 15.5
points this month. The Zogby poll shows
Hutchison with support from 52.2 percent
of the Texans polled while the Democratic
challenger who's making her first run for
public office had 36.7 percent.
That might give the heavily-favored Hutchison
campaign slight cause for consternation
if not for a new Rasmussen poll that shows
Texas' senior U.S. Senate member leading
by 27 points. After holding a 19-point lead
in June, Hutchison received a show of support
from 58 percent of the Rasmussen sample
while 31 percent backed Radnofsky.
Whatever the lead might be with less than
four months to go before the general election,
Hutchison continues to enjoy high popularity
ratings among the Texans she represents.
Hutchison was rated favorably by 65 percent
in the Rasmussen survey while a new Survey
USA poll put her overall favorability at
60 percent.
In addition to Hutchison's high approval
scores, she has had six times more money
to spend on the race than her Democratic
foe. Radnofsky, nonetheless, hopes that
a fundraiser that U.S. Senators John
Kerry and Ted Kennedy
hosted for her last night in Boston and
other events will help her have enough funding
for a competitive fall battle.
|
Strayhorn essentially swapped places in the Rasumussen
survey with the contest's other independent contender,
Kinky Friedman, who dropped from
20 percent in May to 19 percent this month while
Democrat Chris Bell ended up at
13 percent after his support fell a point as well.
Trailing two to one in the Rasmussen poll is
good news for Strayhorn from a relative perspective
compared to the findings in a new Wall Street
Journal/Zogby survey that shows the comptroller
plummeting by more than three points all the way
down to a distant fourth at 11 percent. Bell and
Friedman were running neck-and-neck in Zogby's
July poll with 20.8 percent and 20.7 percent respectively
after the Democratic nominee picked up a point
and the country musician and mystery novelist
gained three points compared to their scores in
June. Perry's numbers held relatively steady with
a half-point boost in support to 38.3 percent
and a 17.5 point lead in the new Zogby report.
While the two new polls were as different as
night and day for Strayhorn and Bell and largely
a wash for Friedman, they both reflected what
Rasmussen, Zogby and other polling organizations
have been showing all year in terms of support
for the Republican incumbent in the neighborhood
of 40 percent and a lead close to 20 points over
his nearest competitors.
Bell's campaign is touting the second place showing
in the Zogby poll and theorizing that the additional
point he picked up might have been a response
to a television advertisement that began airing
last week almost two months ahead of the traditional
kickoff of major media buys.
Dubbed "Think Big," the ad shows Bell
as a giant who's articulating his visions and
goals while towering above downtown skyscrapers,
protruding from a canyon through which he's strolling
and standing almost as tall as a space ship in
the launch position before leaving the ground.
But the new Bell ad's potential impact on Zogby's
latest finding could only have been minimal considering
that the candidate didn't launch it until the
day before the firm wrapped up a week's worth
of polling. The Zogby poll claims a margin of
error of 3.7 percent.
Strayhorn's bump up in the Rasmussen poll and
dramatic dip in the Zogby survey come on the heels
of her losing battle with Secretary of State Roger
Williams to have Grandma inserted into
the name that will appear on the November ballot.
Despite that setback, Strayhorn is pinning her
hopes for a come-from-behind victory on television
advertising that she will be able to purchase
in the campaign's closing months with more than
$8 million in the campaign bank at the end of
last month. Bell spent a considerable portion
of the $653,000 cash surpluses that he reported
on June 30 on the ad that's already running in
markets across the state. With $10 million in
cash on hand, Perry had more money for the final
four months of the race than his three rivals
combined.
The Rasmussen poll that shows Strayhorn leading
Bell by seven points in the battle for second
place shows the comptroller to be more popular
with Democrats than their own nominee for governor.
Strayhorn, a former Democrat who was elected to
her current post twice as a Republican, had a
57 percent favorable rating from Democrats in
the Rasumusse survey while Bell was viewed favorably
by 50 percent of voters from his own party.
Bell's support in Rasmussen polling has declined
four percent in the past three months. But Strayhorn's
support in the Zogby polls - despite her runner-up
status in the new Rasmussen survey - has tumbled
more than nine points since the start of the year
and fallen three points since April.
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