August 1, 2007

Houston House Contests Might Feature
City Council and School Board Members

Democrat Who Backed Craddick Might Face Primary Fight
from U.S. House Aide as Dems Eye House Republican Pair

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

A city council member, a school trustee and a top aide to a popular congressman are among the potential candidates considering campaigns for four Houston state House seats that incumbents plan to seek again and another that's expected to be open next year.

While Houston School Board member Greg Meyers tests the waters for a race as a Republican against Democratic State Rep. Hubert Vo, Democrats are debating whether they should try to clear the deck for outgoing City Council member Carol Alvarado in the district that State Rep. Rick Noriega appears ready to give up in order to run for the U.S. Senate in 2008.

The hottest potential primary race that appears to be shaping up in the state's largest city could pit State Rep. Kevin Bailey against Armando Walle in a litmus test of the Democratic incumbent's loyalty to Republican Speaker Tom Craddick. Walle is the community liaison for U.S. Rep. Gene Green and chairman of the Harris County Tejano Democrats.

A pair of Republican lawmakers - State Reps. Dwayne Bohac and Jim Murphy - could end up facing Democratic challengers in next year's general election in their respective bids for re-election in GOP-leaning districts that Democrats consider to be within striking distance. Kristi Thibaut has been weighing a possible rematch with Murphy in House District 133 while Ginny Stogner McDavid ponders whether to run for the seat that Bohac successfully defended last year in a battle with her husband, Mark McDavid.

Democrats are also keeping an eye on the seat that Republican State Rep. Robert Talton of Pasadena would be giving up if he decides to run for Congress in 2008.

The early sparring among Democrats in Houston stems from an internal battle over the city council seat that term limits bar Alvarado from seeking again and the revolt that erupted in the Texas House when several powerful Republican committee chairs teamed up with Democrats in an attempt to overthrow Craddick in the final days of the regular session this spring.

Alvarado supporters hoped she'd have a clear path to the Democratic nomination in HD 145. But the uncontested primary race that Alvarado forces envisioned has apparently run into some potential obstacles with State Reps. Jessica Farrar and Ana Hernandez reportedly resisting. While Alvarado has the baggage of an ongoing investigation into a scandal involving pay raises and bonuses for several employees when she was mayor pro tem, the problem that other Hispanic state lawmakers in nearby House districts appear to have with her possible candidacy for Noriega's seat seems to center more on her association with consultant Marc Campos.

The longtime Democratic strategist supported Hernandez's main rival in a special election battle for a seat that opened when Joe Moreno died in a car wreck in 2005. Farrar was arguably Hernandez's most influential supporter in the special House race. Campos has also drawn the ire powerful Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia for opposing her in a past race and backing Alvarado aide James Rodriguez against the candidate she favors for the open council seat. Alvarado has been a Campos client as well.

Despite her ties to the lightning rod consultant and the probe that led to the indictment of four employees in the mayor pro tem's office, Alvarado still appears to be well-liked by many Houston Democrats and could be tough to beat in a primary battle in the state House contest.

Bailey's potential primary troubles are linked directly to his support for Craddick at the beginning of the regular session in January and at the end during the mutiny. Bailey was one of about 15 House Democrats who stuck with the Republican House leader despite intense pressure from within their own party to join the coup aimed at toppling him.

Bailey, a 16-year House veteran, had been the General Investigating Committee chairman during Craddick's first two regular sessions as speaker in 2003 and 2005 - and he was tapped to be the Urban Affairs Committee chair after the first round in the speaker's race in January. While Bailey has cause for concern, he doesn't appear to be as vulnerable as Democrats Ron Wilson and Al Edwards were when they lost House seat in primary races to candidates back by party leaders and activists in 2004 and 2006 respectively.

Walle, nonetheless, represents a significant threat as an aide to Green, who's been one of the city's most popular elected officials among Hispanics even though he's Anglo. Walle will apparently have help from Campaign Strategies - a Democratic consulting firm that played a key role in victories that State Reps. Alma Allen and Borris Miles claimed over Wilson and Edwards in primary battles.

Some Republicans think that Meyers could prove to be Vo's toughest foe yet. A school trustee since 2004, Meyers has been the Houston school board's legislative liaison. A former West Houston Chamber of Commerce chairman and director, Meyers is a co-chair of the Texas Institute for Educational Reform, a group of business leaders and lobbyists who are mostly Republicans. Meyers owns a dental products business that operates in three states.

Vo ousted veteran House Republican Talmadge Heflin in a close race in 2004 - the year after he'd been appointed to lead the powerful Appropriations Committee. Heflin, who was hired this week to be the executive director of the Texas Republican Party, challenged Vo's razor-thin victory in an election contest in the Texas House. Heflin fell short last year in a rematch when Vo won 54 percent of the vote.

Meyers has similar credentials to those that Murphy touted in his winning bid against Thibault in 2006. Murphy won 56 percent of the vote while Bohac was receiving 58 percent en route to a victory over McDavid in a nearby district last year. McDavid's wife was on the ballot as Virginia "Ginny" Stogner when she lost a close primary race for the Democratic nomination in former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's district in 2000.

Murphy and Thibaut were competing for an open seat in 2006 while Bohac battled McDavid in his second re-election bid since winning his first trip to the House in 2002.

Vo's victories came in a district where Republican statewide candidates have been winning a majority of the votes. While the GOP's slates at the top of the tickets have carried the districts represented by Talton, Murphy and Bohac, Democrats think their chances in those parts of Houston could be better than ever in 2008 as a result of public unrest over the war in Iraq and the Bush Administration's continued support of it.