June 29, 2006

Democrat Rodriguez and Republican Canseco
Could Have Most to Gain in New Remap Shuffle

Bonilla-Cuellar Rematch is One of Many Possibilities When
South Texas Lines are Redrawn to Meet High Court Demands

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

The biggest potential winner in this week's U.S. Supreme Court decision on the Texas redistricting plan may have been a San Antonio Democrat who lost his seat in Congress in the first primary election held on the map that Republicans drew in a special session of the Legislature almost three years ago. Or the big winner could have been a Laredo Republican who's heavily armed with his own money and eager to run for Congress as soon as he sees an opportunity in a district that he thinks he can win.

The Texans who have the most cause for concern in the high court order's wake include a San Antonio Republican who's been in Congress for the past 13 years and a Laredo Democrat who came close to beating him in 2002 before winning a separate seat by ousting the aforementioned San Antonio Democrat two years later.

In that event, U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, the Laredo Democrat who knocked Rodriguez out of the CD 28 seat in 2004, could end up having to run against Bonilla in a rematch of a 2002 general election race in CD 23 if he hopes to remain in Congress. Cuellar, a former Texas House member, held Bonilla to under 53 percent in the battle four years ago that prompted Republicans to rearrange CD 23 to improve the incumbent's chances for re-election there in subsequent years.

When the necessary changes are made to the plan that Republican lawmakers drafted under the guidance of former Congressman Tom DeLay, the subsequent elections that must be held on a reconfigured map could provide a deja vu for Bonilla, Cuellar and Rodriguez while essentially forcing them back to the past. But the new plan that will either be drawn by a federal court panel or the Texas Legislature in special session this summer if not in regular session next year could open the door to the future for a candidate such as Francisco Canseco - a Laredo lawyer who was prepared to seek the Republican nomination in CD 23 this year if Bonilla had run for a U.S. Senate seat as he'd tentatively planned to do.

While Bonilla was gearing for a race for U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison's seat if she opted to run for governor as many Republicans expected, Canseco was pouring $1 million of his own money into a campaign war chest for a CD 23 bid and organizing a base of supporters in San Antonio and Laredo. Before shifting his sights to the district that Bonilla represents, Canseco fell short in a primary runoff race against Seguin attorney James Hopson for the GOP nomination in CD 28 in his debut political bid two years ago. Canseco, who's also a banker, has served as an appointee to the City Charter Revision Commission in Laredo and has played a key role in promoting the annual George Washington Birthday celebration there. He was the chairman of the Credentials Committee at the state Republican Convention earlier this month.

While Canseco had said that he wouldn't seek Bonilla's seat in Congress in this year's primary election unless it was open, all bets may be off if he thinks he thinks he's the Republican with the best chance to win an election that's held after CD 23 has been fixed to meet the Supreme Court's order.

Rodriguez could have an inside track back to Congress in a district that no longer contains Webb County if Cuellar were to be paired with Bonilla when the boundaries are revised. Rodriguez was in Congress for seven years until Cuellar edged him out after a series of recounts in primary election thriller in 2004. Running as an incumbent, Cuellar won 54 percent of the primary vote this year while Rodriguez received 40 percent when he attempted a comeback. Victor Morales claimed the remaining votes in the March primary contest in CD 28.

With Cuellar out of the picture, Rodriguez presumably would have a jump on other potential candidates with a base of support and fundraising apparatus already in place in a district similar to the one he used to represent.

State Rep. Richard Raymond, who campaigned for several months for the Democratic nomination in CD 28 before deciding to seek re-election this year in a Laredo district instead, could also be a factor in the competition for Congress in South Texas on a map that's been altered as a result of the court ruling. Raymond won an April primary runoff against a popular former county judge with 57 percent of the vote in his bid for re-election after concentrating on a congressional campaign most of last year.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Austin could be affected if residents in CD 25 are moved into Bonilla's district to correct the flaws cited by the Supreme Court. But at this point few Democrats seem concerned that he will end up being threatened in a heavily-Hispanic district that was created during the 2003 redistricting process to help mitigate possible voting rights issues in CD 23. The districts represented by Republican U.S. Reps. Mike Conaway of Midland, Lamar Smith of San Antonio and even Michael McCaul of Austin could also be affected when the lines for congressional districts are reshuffled in south and west Texas to comply with the court demands. But from all indications they appear to be safe as well.