July 14, 2005

Clinton Could Have Key Role in Spence
Campaign for Texas Governor Next Year

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

Austin advertising magnate Roy Spence might be on the verge of enlisting an old friend for help in one of the more ambitious marketing projects of an illustrious career. Spence may soon be running for Texas governor with former President Bill Clinton on the stump with him at events across the state.

Clinton's conspicuous presence in a gubernatorial campaign would apparently be designed to accomplish a couple of objectives. For starters, Clinton would bring the kind of attention to a campaign that money couldn't buy. It would take that and more for a candidate like Spence to beat the long odds that a Democrat would face in a bid for governor at a time when Republicans hold most of the obvious advantages with no signs of a coordinated statewide campaign by Democrats in the works.

At this point no one really knows whether Clinton would be an asset or a liability for other Democratic candidates who are closely associated with him and have his active support. A Spence campaign for governor would provide a testing ground with Texas voters as a focus group to help gauge the former president's potential value to a candidate in a state controlled by Republicans despite a large Democratic base. More importantly, it would give Clinton an opportunity to see how his high visibility in a campaign context might affect his wife, U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, as she ponders a possible White House race the next time her husband's old job is up for grabs in 2008.

Spence became good friends with the Clintons during George McGovern's campaign against Richard Nixon in the early 1970s. The couple confided in Spence when Clinton was toying with the notion of giving up his job as governor and running for president instead. Clinton has stayed at Spence's house on visits to Austin since leaving office.

Spence would have the ability to tap a substantial amount of his own money for a gubernatorial campaign if he decides to run. A Brownwood, Texas native, Spence was a student at the University of Texas at Austin when he teamed up with several other students to start the advertising agency known as GSD&M. The firm handled some political accounts in the early days before landing a fledgling Southwest Airlines as a client when it was a relatively unknown commodity 30 years ago. GSD&M created the Don't Mess with Texas anti-litter campaign for the state - and the company shaped the advertising programs for Wal-Mart, Krispy Kreme doughnuts, the Texas Lottery and other major clients.

While Governor Rick Perry and Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn are dueling away in the fight for the GOP nomination, Democrats aren't sure who their candidate for governor will be if they have one at all on the ballot in 2006. Former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell has been weighing a possible race for governor for the past several months. There have been signs recently that former State Comptroller John Sharp might be getting closer to a decision on a gubernatorial bid and possible rematch with Perry next year. Sharp lost to Perry in a close vote in the 1998 lieutenant governor's race and did better than any other Democrat on the statewide ticket four years later when David Dewhurst beat him. Bell, a former Houston city councilman, made a name for himself during his first and only term in Congress when he launched an attack on the ethics of U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. Former Austin Mayor Kirk Watson, ex-State Senator Ted Lyon of Mesquite and former East Texas Congressman Jim Turner have also been mentioned as potential candidates for governor or another statewide office next year.

Democrats have one U.S. Senate candidate so far in Houston attorney Barbara Radnofsky. East Texas educator Hank Gilbert of Whitehouse has indicated that he'll be a candidate for Texas agriculture commissioner in 2006.

Giving Clinton a role in a possible Spence campaign could be a double-edge sword considering the love-hate relationship that Americans had with him while he was in office for eight years and since he's been out. Clinton was a big hit with Democrats at their national convention in Boston last summer - and he draws big crowds whenever he does a public event. Many Republicans and others still despise Clinton and always will. The last Democrat to occupy the White House never carried Texas or came that close in his two campaigns for president.

Democratic strategists have been wondering since the final year of Clinton's presidency about his potential worth or harm as a visible supporter in campaigns for other Democrats. Some analysts believe that Al Gore blew his chance to be president when he didn't have Clinton at his side in certain states during the 2000 campaign - especially in Arkansas and Tennessee where Clinton and Gore were from. Unlike the Gore campaign, a Spence bid for governor would be more like a longshot adventure with little to lose except money.

The conventional wisdom in Austin is that Republicans will be prohibitive favorites in races at the top of the ticket next year . Democrats may have little or no chance for an upset if their nominee for governor runs a standard campaign. Clinton could create excitement that would be missing otherwise - but he could also inspire Republicans to work harder than ever and spend record amounts. Spence might think he has no chance without something extraordinary - and having a former president playing country music on a saxophone at campaign events would be about as novel as it gets.