| ANALYSIS
The
House District 78 battle is an unusual
tale of two races - the one Democrats
didn't think they'd have much chance
to win as long as State Rep. Pat Haggerty
was defending the seat and the one
they've made their number one priority
on the House battlefield this fall
now since he lost his bid for re-election
in the Republican primary election
this year. The Democrats think Dee
Margo's victory over Haggerty in the
GOP primary put them within striking
distance of a House seat that the
GOP's held for the past 20 years.
Now the Democrats are guardedly confident
that an assistant prosecutor named
Joe Moody has a good chance to win
the seat back for them as the Democratic
nominee in HD 78 in the general election.
But Moody still faces an uphill climb
based on a June poll for the El
Paso Times and NewsChannel
9 that showed Margo leading the
race by more than seven points heading
into the summer.
But
Moody and Margo both have substantial
cause for optimism and concern as
they prepare to do battle in the state's
westernmost House district this fall.
The district that Haggerty has represented
since 1989 has a higher percentage
of Democratic voters than any of the
other House districts that are currently
controlled by the GOP. Republican
statewide candidates claimed 56 percent
of the vote in HD 78 two years ago
after winning slightly less than that
there in 2004. But those numbers might
seem irrelevant come November if primary
turnout this year is a sign of what
to expect in the general election.
With the Democratic presidential nomination
still up for grabs, Moody and primary
foe Louis Irwin received more than
twice as many votes between the two
of them in March as Margo and Haggerty
had combined on their side of the
aisle with the GOP White House race
already settled by then for all practical
purposes. But while Democrats turned
out in record shattering numbers in
the March election, the number of
votes cast in the Republican primary
in the HD 78 race was 50 percent higher
than it had been two years before
when Haggerty edged out challenger
Lorraine O'Donnell with less than
51 percent of the GOP vote. So both
sides entered the fall competition
with a significant number of new voters
to target in the El Paso House district.
Libertarian candidate Bill Collins
is also in the race.
Margo
will be in trouble if primary turnout
turns out to be a relatively accurate
foreshadowing of the general election
vote in HD 78 later this year. But
Margo appeared to be a beneficiary
of the turnout trends when a sizeable
number of moderate Republicans and
independent voters who would have
backed Haggerty decided to be part
of history by casting their votes
for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton
in the closest presidential primary
race in modern times. Margo, who'd
received only 41 percent of the vote
in 2006 in a race against Democratic
State Senator Eliot Shapleigh, defeated
Haggerty with the support of almost
57 percent of the GOP primary voters
this year. As a challenger taking
on an incumbent who'd been one of
the House's most moderate Republicans
and one of Speaker Tom Craddick's
most outspoken foes, Margo has the
GOP power establishment and grassroots
conservatives on his side in the primary
fight. And Haggerty's base was shaken
to the point of being decimated by
the crossover voting on the Democrats'
side.
While Moody and the Democrats appear
to have a realistic shot at the HD
78 seat in the general election, they
will have to overcome some inherent
advantages that Margo appears to have
barring an electoral tsunami that
sweeps from the national level into
the state and swamps the hopes of
Republicans in competitive races.
A businessman and former Chamber of
Commerce official, Margo expects to
have a bigger war chest for the fall
campaign, even though he's been warning
that his Democratic opponent will
have substantial support from trial
lawyers. While Moody is making his
first political race as a candidate
who's still in his twenties, Margo
has valuable experience from the losing
state Senate race and the victory
over Haggerty that he claimed on the
rebound 16 months later in one of
the most competitive House primary
battles in Texas this year. Margo
is stressing 30 years of experience
as a business executive who's the
current chairman and CEO at the John
D. Williams Company, which he bills
as the largest insurance firm in the
southwest. Margo has played up roles
that he's had as a local leader in
economic development efforts, civilian
military support and other community
endeavors - and he's suggested that
Moody lacks experience while raising
questions about his judgment as well.
Margo's
supporters have been calling attention
to some of the entries that Moody
had posted on a blog that he hosted
before pulling it down in the wake
of a local newspaper article about
it earlier this year before the primary
vote. Moody had ruminated on the web
page about the dilemma he faced when
trying to decide whether to stay in
his hometown of El Paso or move out
of state to pursue a career in the
music business. Moody defended the
self-probing analyses as a forthright
examination of the kind of choices
that young people encounter when trying
to decide what to do with their lives
- and he argued that the blog postings
said nothing negative about his qualifications
to serve in the Legislature. Moody
prompted questions in some political
circles about whether he was being
overly idealistic or naive or both
when he challenged Margo to abide
by strict federal contribution limits
in the sprit of campaign reform. When
Margo declined the invitation to give
up one of his biggest advantages in
the House race, Moody recalled the
pledge that he'd made to cap the contributions
he raised when he issued the challenge
initially. But Moody scored a substantial
amount of free publicity with the
proposal - and that probably helped
him more than it hurt him as a novice
candidate who'd raised about one dollar
during the primary for every ten that
Margo rounded up for round one.
For
a rookie candidate with minimal funding
for the primary phase of his House
campaign,.Moody entered the fall fight
with a measure of built-in name identification
as the son of Bill Moody - a state
district judge who's run statewide
twice in the past six years. The elder
Moody fared better than any other
Democrat on a relatively weak statewide
slate when he lost to Republican incumbent
Don Willett in a state Supreme Court
race in 2006. While Moody the jurist
captured 47 percent of the vote statewide,
he received 59 percent in the El Paso
House district that his son hopes
to represent. While the younger Moody
is making his debut as a candidate,
he gained valuable experience as his
father's campaign manager two years
ago. Joe Moody has worked for other
Democrats on the campaign trail including
Al Gore when he was running for president
and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson.
Margo
raised $400,000 before the primary
election and will be able to raise
as much as he thinks he needs for
the fall fight. But Democrats see
the HD 78 as a golden opportunity
now that Haggerty's out of the race
- and they will make sure that Moody
is well-armed as well - even if he
doesn't match his Republican foe dollar
for dollar. Moody's biggest stumbling
block could be one that he may not
be able to do much about - and that's
the fragile support that Obama appears
to have among Hispanics in South Texas
and other border towns such as El
Paso. Clinton garnered almost 70 percent
of the primary vote in El Paso County
this years - and some Hispanics who
voted for her say they will switch
their allegiance to Republican John
McCain now that she's out of the running
for president. In a House district
that's tilted Republican in recent
years, Moody will need substantial
support among Hispanic voters to win
the race. More than 57 percent of
the House district's residents are
Hispanic - and the vast majority of
those who vote typically back Democrats.
But Governor Rick Perry, who contributed
to Margo before the primary vote,
fared better in HD 78 in 2006 in his
bid for re-election than he did statewide.
Perry, who finished first in a four-way
field two years ago with 39 percent
of the statewide vote, claimed 42
percent in Haggerty's House district.
Perry and Lieutenant Governor David
Dewhurst both won 55 percent of the
vote in HD 78 in races against Democrats
Tony Sanchez and John Sharp in 2002.
President George W. Bush received
56 percent of the HD 78 vote in his
bid for a new term in 2004. The poll
that the Reuel Group conducted for
the El Paso newspaper and television
station in mid-June found Margo with
support from 39 percent of 1,842 registered
voters surveyed in HD 78 compared
to 31.5 percent for Moody. Democrats
attribute the size of Margo's lead
to the fact that he'd been in the
spotlight more as a candidate in hotly-contested
primary battle after reaping substantial
attention during his race for the
state Sente in 2006. But Democrats
think there's plenty of time to close
the gap between now and November -
noting that the poll showed 29 percent
of the voters as still undecided.
Democrats
will reclaim control of the Texas
House if they pick up five or more
seats in the general election November
4. HD 78 may be a must-win if they
hope to achieve that this year. If
Moody does win the seat, the Democrats
might think that they owe some debt
of gratitude to the Republican powers
that be that helped Margo beat Haggerty
in the first round. But the Republican
conservatives and heavyweights who
backed Margo have been frustrated
with Haggerty and his steadfast refusal
to toe the party line - and they've
been willing to gamble and risk losing
the seat if that's what it took to
defeat him.
2008
Primary Election
Dee Margo (R) 57%
Pat Haggerty (R-Inc) 43% |
2006
General Election
Pat Haggerty (R-Inc) 100%
Unopposed (D) 0% |
2004
General Election
Pat Haggerty (R-Inc) 100%
Unopposed (D) 0% |
| 2008
Primary Election
Joseph Moody (D) 72%
Louis Irwin (D) 28% |
2006
Primary Election
Pat Haggerty (R-Inc) 51%
Lorraine O'Donnell (R) 49% |
2004
Primary Election
Pat Haggerty (R-Inc) 71%
Peter Peca (R) 29% |
|
