Third Time's The Charm

Bush Campaign Sees President in Good Position
to Peak When Needed in Three Act Debate Play

By MIKE HAILEY

President George W. Bush's campaign strategists don't appear to be too worried about a slump in the wake of the first presidential debate last week. Bush's strategists concede that more viewers thought Democrat John Kerry fared better during the 90-minute sparring match than the Republican incumbent. But they point out that only one of the last five Democratic presidential candidates went on to win the election after coming out ahead in the polls that gauged public opinion about their first debates. That distinction belonged to Bill Clinton in 1996.

The Bush-Cheney camp's reaction to the first head-to-head confrontation between the two candidates is a coolly disciplined assessment that falls somewhere between minimal concern and relative nonchalance. It's as if the Republicans ended the first debate with Bush and Kerry exactly where they want them to be with a month left in the general election campaign. Some Bush supporters have gone as far as theorizing that the campaign didn't really want to win the first debate, choosing instead to pursue a strategy that would have the president improve by the candidates' second joint outing on Friday and then be in a position to peak during the third and final debate next week. The theory goes that Kerry loses the series if he performs at the same basic level that he did last Thursday. If Bush gets better each time, he inherits the momentum and walks away with the election on November 2. This isn't basketball - and winning isn't necessarily a function of who has the most points as much as it is a result of how those points were scored.

The Bush team isn't fretting about the way Kerry delivered a stylistically elegant first showing while the president seemed to get increasingly irritated and defensive as the debate wore on. While the Democratic highlight video seeks to capitalize on visual images of a smooth Kerry and a ruffled Bush, the Republican's campaign has zeroed in on the substance of what was said and is planning to use Kerry's own words as ammo against him during the next two debates and on the campaign trail beyond them. Bush strategists give the impression they'll take the simple messages that their candidate kept repeating over the Democrat's intellectual acumen and oratory any day.

The debate "demonstrated two things," Terry Nelson, the national political director for the Bush campaign, said in an email to supporters this weekend "One, the President has a clear vision and understanding for how to win the War on Terror, and two, Kerry is unable to clearly present a message and vision to the American people."

The Bush campaign has put together a rapid response package for surrogates and other supporters to use when talking up the debate to the press in particular and to voters in general. The talking points focus on a single poll that was conducted overnight by ABC News following the debate. While the campaign acknowledges that between nine and 16 percent of respondents in a variety of post-debate surveys said Kerry won that night, it cites the ABC numbers that show Bush leading the race by the same four-point margin he had in the same poll going into the debate. Despite Kerry's high debate marks, the Democrat still lagged behind Bush on the question of who would better handle the war in Iraq and which candidate would in the minds of Americans make a better commander in chief.

"Voters found the president stronger, more likable, more believable and more in tune with the issues they care about," the campaign maintained in the rhetoric it recommended for Bush defenders.

The campaign has outlined in a series of bullet items the Kerry debate statements that it hopes to trumpet between now and the election. Bush strategists say Kerry made a tactical blunder when he advocated a pre-war "global test," which according to GOP strategists, would force upon the United States the burden of first proving to the world that it had a justifiable reason to go to war before actually doing so. The Republicans plan to make hay out of that comment in the coming days and weeks. Beyond that the Bush camp's points of contention provide the fodder for a largely semantic debate on Kerry statements on coalitions of allies and what American troops deserve and should expect. The thread that runs through it all is the Bush camp's position that Kerry has a record of flip flopping while the president's a decisive leader with a record tested in the face of adversity that had been unimaginable until the events of 9-11 set the world on a different course.

Despite touting the ABC News poll lead, Nelson cautions against complacency and taking anything for granted. "With 32 days remaining, this race remains very close. It is essential that we do not lose focus as we move toward the finish line," Nelson said in the email. "The ground game will be essential to victory on November 2nd. Thanks to you, we have the best organized and well-prepared presidential campaign in the history of modern American campaigns, but there is always room to grow. Please continue to register new voters, recruit new volunteers and spread the President's positive agenda for America."

The bottom line seems to be that the Bush campaign believes that the president still is the only one of the two candidates giving voters a reason to give him their votes. Shining in a debate, Bush's strategists seem to think, has little to do with who wins the ultimate poll on election day.

Mike Hailey's column appears regularly in Capitol Inside