April 9, 2004

Death of a Sales Pitch

Perry Faces Imposing Challenge Getting Support from Some Republicans Who Are Vowing to Vote No in Special Session

By MIKE HAILEY

Governor Rick Perry's office sent out an email Thursday night with statements from several business lobbyists and corporate CEOs who lavished sparkling superlatives and praise on the property tax and school plan rolled out earlier that day. All of the people who were quoted made the dual point that the governor had demonstrated a commitment to fixing the public school finance system and protecting economic opportunity and jobs with the plan he'd crafted for a special session that he says he will call this month.

The reaction seemed to signify a dramatic shift of opinion compared to the criticism that Perry's proposals had encountered when floated separately as trial balloons over the past month or two. Perry's effort was exalted with lofty terms like courage, deftly, refreshing and unmatched in well-written statements with similar sequences of construction, style and flow - almost as if they'd been centrally coordinated or composed by the same writer. Maybe the similarities were simply a case of brilliant minds thinking alike. Or maybe they were a sign that Perry has already done a remarkable sales job defending his plan and building support for it fast. For the governor's sake, let's hope it's the latter.

Selling the plan to legislators will present more of a challenge. A growing number of House Republicans are vowing privately to be firm no votes if given a chance to pass judgment on the governor's plan in a special session. Some members of the first GOP House majority since the 1860s - including both rural and suburban Republicans - say they won't be supporting anybody's plans this spring. About a fourth of the 88 Republicans in the lower chamber hail from relatively rural areas while most of the remainder represent suburban districts or old-money urban enclaves.

One reason so many Republicans are not as gung-ho now about school finance as they seemed to be on the campaign trail in years past is because they've learned that most of the schools in their districts benefit from the Robin Hood system that Perry and other legislative leaders want to eliminate. The state takes tax money from 10 percent of the school districts in the state and gives it to 90 percent in return. Most of the legislators with a majority of students in Chapter 41 districts that have to give away money under Robin Hood are from Austin or the suburbs around Dallas. It's tough to tear down a system when you're coming out ahead because of it.

The Republicans who promise to vote no also understand that supporting a tax shift is the same as supporting a tax increase when they have an opponent taking shots at them on the campaign trail. Some legislators feel fairly immune to that because they've represented the same voters long enough to enjoy the benefit of the doubt on some issues that require unpopular votes. The more Republican the district, ironically, the less trouble a member might get into for supporting a hike in the cigarette tax or other state tax boosts to pay for local property tax cuts Perry has proposed. But many rural Republicans live in potential swing districts - and others simply aren't well enough grounded by incumbency to feel certain that they can survive being attacked as a tax-and-spender.

It's a complicated issue. But the bottom line is that some lawmakers simply don't think the plans they've seen so far do enough for pubic schools in their districts to justify the pain. A Texas Poll this year indicated that a majority of Texans are not that upset about Robin Hood or high property taxes - and that's not much of an incentive to take risks.

Perry can probably forget about much help from Democrats, who will be more inclined to go to the back mike to inquire about the ongoing grand jury investigation than to discuss split tax rolls or guaranteed yields.

Perry's plan faces opposition on other fronts as well. Contrary to the quotations in the email, the business community as a whole doesn't appear to be abandoning months of opposition and piling on a bandwagon just yet. Perry hopes to ease business concerns about a split tax roll with a proposed constitutional amendment that would link the commercial and residential tax rates so business won't end up shouldering an unfair burden. It's an interesting concept that hasn't had time to sink in. It seems a lot like saying `trust me,' but maybe it will work.

He's also got a problem with cities and counties that are vehemently opposed to appraisal and rate caps that they say will cripple their ability to provide necessary services. If he has a way to cool that opposition, he hasn't shown it yet.

Along with the hurdles in the House, the governor faces a doubting Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst and his Senate allies who think Perry's plan does not go far enough. Dewhurst and the senators have already put their jobs on the line once with the school finance bill they approved unanimously last year. They probably don't want to risk them again for something they consider a bandaid approach.

Texas legislators have a tradition of giving lip service to plans served up by governors before hammering out their own. But this is a different story because it's a different governor who's shown more of a penchant for the veto.

For months it appeared that Perry couldn't decide which road to try to take out of the box he'd made for himself by promising for the past year to take on the troubled school finance system when he didn't have a plan to do so. He delayed judgment day as long as possible - and then he finally took the advice of those who told him that refusing to call a special session would bring more grief than calling one that might not work.

The problem now is, most legislators don't have that much to lose by doing nothing on this issue right now - and that's why the governor faces the sales job of a lifetime if he hopes to prevail in the debate on school finance.

Mike Hailey's column appears regularly in the Viewpoints section