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Republican Pollster Gave Big Hitters
Map for New Frontier in 2020 Voting
Capitol Inside
December 3, 2020
The battle for the Texas House majority was an epic match of wits and muscle that pit an army of Democratic political pros from Washington D.C. against the GOP's top Austin strategists who'd never been the underdogs until now.
While the coronavirus had changed the dynamics of the competition dramatically, the Republicans here had the benefit of campaign consultants who had local knowledge that could help minimize damage that appeared to be inevitable with President Donald Trump in a free fall in the stretch.
The GOP establishment ended up saving the day with an unprecedented team effort that spread the heavy lifting among the party's most experienced and successful political professionals at the state level. With Democrats needing nine seats to take the lower chamber back, an eventual break-even election was tantamount to victory for the Republicans who'd been resigned to losing a half-dozen or more state House districts this fall.
The Republicans relied on homegrown talent and expertise for guidance on a House battlefield that was far more important to the future of Texas politics than the presidential race had been in a state that ended up on the losing side. The GOP had its best and biggest consulting firm in Texas in Murphy Nasica and Jordan Berry as its leading individual strategist here directing the lion's share of the campaigns in the two dozen most competitive House races in 2020.
But the monumental clash for control of the west wing of the statehouse was taking place on an alien playing field in the midst of unprecedented uncertainty brought on by the worst public health emergency in more than 100 years. That put a major added premium on Chris Perkins' skills as the top Republican pollster in Texas in recent years.
The Republican powers that be in Texas enlisted the Perkins firm Ragnar Research Partners for polling for the GOP nominees in more than a dozen fights for House seats that the Democrats were targeting and several more districts that challengers were trying to wrestle away from freshmen Democrats who'd flipped them two years ago.
Perkins emerged as the most valuable political consultant in Texas in the most extraordinary and brutal election in American history by showing the biggest-giving GOP donors where to put their money and where to hold it.
All of the consultants for both parties expected Democrats to pick up more than a handful of seats in the lower chamber where they would seize the majority with a net gain of nine. But Perkins was one of the first and few to predict with reasonable confidence that the House would remain red despite probable losses.
Perkins did the polling for 11 House Republicans who won re-election races that had been top targets for the Democrats. Perkins had clients win two open contests for the House while another candidate prevailed in a rematch with a rookie Democrat for a seat in the Houston suburbs that the Republican had lost in 2018.
Perkins had seven challengers and one incumbent go down in hotly-contested races for seats that Democrats had captured two years ago. But all of those candidates had been underdogs in races that would have been icing on the cake with the contests involving incumbents for the GOP as the make-or-break races on the most competitive House battlefield in history.
Murphy Nasica guided a handful of House Republicans to wins in districts where they'd appeared to be in various degrees of significant danger while leading another candidate to success in an open district in the suburbs between Dallas and Fort Worth. Berry helped a couple of incumbents stave off challengers in targeted races on a battlefield where two clients prevailed in highly-competitive contests and a third flipped a seat back to the GOP in a general election rematch.
The winning strategists for the Republicans were working off Perkins numbers in most cases.
PRIMARY SCORING INDEX
Specialty Consultants 50% Points
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| Non-Judicial Statewide Win 6 |
| Judicial Statewide Win 3 |
| Texas Statewide Race Loss 1 |
| Legislature & Congress Target Win 5 |
| Legislature & Congress Non-Target Win 2 |
| Texas Legislature & Congress Loss 1 |
| Major
State Political Action Committee 2 |
| Mid-Major
Political Action Committee 1 |
| Texas House Speaker Race Winner 3 |
| Texas Senate Special Election Runoff 2 |
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| Chris Perkins |
Jordan Berry |
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| Craig Murphy |
Matt Brownfield |
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GENERAL ELECTION SCORECARD |
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General Consultants
Minimum 16 Points
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Craig Murphy, Matt Brownfield, Justin Epker, Ross Hunt, Joey Parr, Blake Reynolds, Sam Spahn, Stephanie Terek
Murphy Nasica & Associates
John Cornyn, Genevieve Collins, Larry Taylor, Steve Allison, Angie Chen Button, Gary Gates, Craig Goldman, Sam Harless, Justin Holland, Dade Phelan, Ed Thompson, Justin Berry, David Cook, Will Douglas, Linda Koop, Justin Ray, Luisa Del Rosal, Associated Republicans of Texas, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Republican State Leadership Committee, Leading Texas Forward, Austin Police Association, Fort Worth Police Association, Arlington Police Association, State Farm PAC, Texas Republican Party Victory
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70 |
Jordan Berry, Vanessa Cortez
Tanner, Travis McCormick
Berry Communications
Chip Roy, Bryan Hughes, Charles Perry, Brad Buckley, Dustin Burrows, Briscoe Cain, Cole Hefner, Mayes Middleton, Tan Parker, Jared Patterson, Scott Sanford, Matt Shaheen, Drew Springer, James White, Terry Wilson, Lacey Hull, Carrie Isaac, Jacey Jetton, Mike Schofield, Cody Vasult, Associated Republicans of Texas, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Texas Optometric Association
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64 |
Chad Crow, Kori Crow
KC Strategies
Lance Gooden, Dwayne Burns, Drew Darby, Andrew Murr, Reggie Smith, Lynn Stucky, Glenn Rogers, Bryan Slaton, Associated Republicans of Texas, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Republican State Leadership Committee, Leading Texas Forward
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28 |
Keats Norfleet
Norfleet Strategies
Louie Gohmert, Kay Granger, August Pfluger, Charles Schwertner, Sarah Davis, Sam Harless, Cody Harris, Stan Lambert, Hugh Shine, David Cook, Leading Texas Forward
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27 |
Drew Lawson
Lawson Strategies
Jane Nelson, Geanie Morrison, Giovanni Capriglione, Matt Krause, Luisa Del Rosal, Texas Republican Party, Associated Republicans of Texas, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Keep Tarrant Red
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22 |
Luke Macias
Macias Strategies
Kyle Biedermann, Matt Schaefer, Tony Tinderholt, Steve Toth, Jeff Cason, Bryan Slaton, Texas Right to Life
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20 |
James Aldrete
Message Audience Presentation
MJ Hegar, Henry Cuellar, Sylvia Garcia, Cesar Blanco, Philip Cortez, Eliz Markowitz, House Democratic Campaign Committee, Texas Trial Lawyers Association, Texans for Insurance Reform
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16 |
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Specialist Consultants
Minimum 12 Points
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Chris Perkins
Ragnar Research Partners
GOP Polling
Brian Babin, John Carter, August Pfluger, Chip Roy, Randy Weber, Lois Kolkhorst, Larry Taylor, Steve Allison, Brad Buckley, Angie Chen Button, Briscoe Cain, Sarah Davis, Gary Gates, Craig Goldman, Sam Harless, Todd Hunter, Matt Krause, Jeff Leach, Morgan Meyer, Geanie Morrison, Jared Patterson, John Raney, Drew Springer, Lynn Stucky, Ed Thompson, Justin Berry, Jeff Cason, David Cook, Luisa Del Rosal, Will Douglas, Lacey Hull, Carrie Isaac, Jacey Jetton, Linda Koop, Justin Ray, Mike Schofield, Kronda Thimesch, Texas Republican Party, Associated Republicans of Texas, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Republican State Leadership Committee, Leading Texas Forward, NRSC, NRCC, Charter Schools Now
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68 |
Susan Lilly
Lilly & Company
GOP Fundraising
Nathan Hecht, Jane Bland, John Carter, Brian Babin, Kevin Brady, Michael Burgess, Kay Granger, Michael McCaul, Tony Gonzales, Wesley Hunt, Beth Van Duyne, Steve Allison, Chris Paddie, Justin Berry, David Cook, Linda Koop, Justin Ray, Luisa Del Rosal, A&M PAC, Take Back the House 2020, With Honor Fund
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27 |
Spencer Neumann
Neumann & Company
GOP Mail
Kevin Brady, Dan Crenshaw, Sarah Davis, Sam Harless, Jacey Jetton, Texas Republican Party, Associated Republicans of Texas, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Republican State Leadership Committee, Leading Texas Forward, Texas Oil & Gas Association
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15 |
Todd Olsen
Upstream Communications
GOP Technology
Jane Bland, Jim Wright, Roger Williams, August Pfluger, Jane Nelson, Geanie Morrison, Kyle Kacal, Luisa Del Rosal, Associated Republicans of Texas, Texans for Joe Straus, Texas Forever Forward, SafeTX PAC, Pro-Life America
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14 |
Jeff Crosby
Jeff Crosby Direct Mail
Democrat Mail
Judith Zaffirini, Michelle Beckley, Rhetta Bowers, Garnet Coleman, Harold Dutton, Bobby Guerra, Abel Herrero, Tracy King, Leo Pacheco, Texas Trial Lawyers Association
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13 |
Jeff Norwood
Anthem Media
GOP Media
Pete Sessions, Jeff Leach, Tony Tinderholt, Shelley Luther, Jeff Cason, Associated Republicans of Texas, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Republican State Leadership Committee, Leading Texas Forward
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13 |
Mike Baselice
Baselice & Associates
GOP Polling
Donald Trump, Kay Granger, Michael McCaul, Pete Sessions, Brandon Creighton, Pete Flores, Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Real Estate Council of Austin, NRSC, America First Action |
12 |
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