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President
Biden +0.3% |
U.S. Senate
Cornyn +2.0% |
U.S. House
Dem +6 |
Texas Senate
Dem +1 |
Texas House
Dem +15 |
New Poll Has Democrats Seizing Majority
in Texas House Fight that Could Be Close
By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor
October 13, 2020
A new poll that the Texas Democratic Party touted on Tuesday shows the GOP on track to fumble away the state House majority in the upcoming general election on a battlefield where the competition actually would be closer than partisans on both sides of the aisle have perceived it to be with a potential blue blowout on the horizon.
The survey by the Reform Austin indicates that Democrats would pick up 11 Texas House seats at the polls in three weeks in a battle for control of a chamber where they only need nine more to take over in January.
A Delaware-based group that leans to the left, Reform Austin found five freshmen Democrats leading GOP challengers by 9 points or more in House districts that flipped from red to blue in 2018. Incumbent Republicans were up in a half-dozen state House races out of 17 swing contests in districts that the GOP is attempting to defend in the election on November 3.
The RA survey shows blowouts in the making in districts that GOP State Reps. Brad Buckley of Killeen, Sarah Davis of Houston, Craig Goldman of Fort Worth and Morgan Meyer of Dallas trailing Democratic challengers by double-digit margins.
State Reps. Steve Allison of San Antonio and Sam Harless of Houston - a pair of rookie Republicans in rematches with Democrats that have appeared to be close - are the only incumbents for the GOP with leads that are outside the RA poll's 4 point margin of error. Bedford Republican Jeff Cason is the only GOP contender in the targeted contests with at least 50 percent support - the exact amount that he garnered in the Reform Austin survey that found him ahead of Euless Democrat Jeff Whitfield by 12 in an open race on the fall ballot.
The poll showed GOP State Rep. Gary Gates of Rosenberg leading Katy Democrat Eliz Markowitz by only 2 points after crushing her by 16 in a special election runoff in March. Freshman State Rep. Lynn Stucky of Denton was up by 4 points over Democratic foe Angela Brewer. GOP State Rep. Matt Krause of Fort Worth was treading water in the RA survey with a 1 point lead over Democrat Lydia Bean of Arlington.
But the Reform Austin poll should be more cause for angst than celebration for the Democrats who'd been predicting a net gain in the Legislature's lower chamber of as many as 18 seats with President Donald Trump cratering at the top of the ticket and dragging down-ballot Republicans in competitive races down with the ship.
Two of the GOP's most vulnerable House Republicans on paper - State Reps. Jeff Leach of Allen and Matt Shaheen of Plano - are behind by only 2 points each in duels with Democrats Lorenzo Sanchez of Dallas and Sharon Hirsch of Plano. Republican State Rep. Tony Tinderholt of Arlington also is locked in a statistical dead heat in a district where he's trailing Democratic challenger Alisa Simmons of Arlington by 2.
Another Republican who's appeared to be in trouble - State Rep. Angie Chen Button of Garland - had fallen 4 points behind Dallas Democrat Brandy Chambers in one of the current minority party's top targets this fall.
Democrats Sarah DeMerchant of Sugar Land and Joe Drago of Crowley are leading GOP foes Jacey Jetton and David Cook by 6 and 5 points respectively in the RA poll.
more to come ... |
TEXAS HOUSE RACES TO WATCH
Ranked on
Partisan Turnover Odds |
1 |
HD 108 |
Morgan Meyer (R-Inc)
Joanna Cattanach (D) |
2 |
HD 138 |
Lacey Hull (R)
Akilah Bacy (D) |
3 |
HD 66 |
Matt Shaheen (R-Inc)
Sharon Hirsch (D) |
4 |
HD 67 |
Jeff Leach (R-Inc)
Lorenzo Sanchez (D) |
5 |
HD 26 |
Jacey Jetton (R)
Sarah DeMerchant (D) |
6 |
HD 112 |
Angie Chen Button (R-Inc)
Brandy Chambers (D) |
7 |
HD 134 |
Sarah Davis (R-Inc)
Ann Johnson (D) |
8 |
HD 121 |
Steve Allison (R-Inc)
Celina Montoya (D) |
9 |
HD 97 |
Craig Goldman (R-Inc)
Elizabeth Beck (D) |
10 |
HD 92 |
Jeff Cason (R)
Jeff Whitfield (D) |
11 |
HD 64 |
Lynn Stucky (R-Inc)
Angela Brewer (D) |
12 |
HD 132 |
Gina Calanni (D-Inc)
Mike Schofield (R) |
13 |
HD 94 |
Tony Tinderholt (R-Inc)
Alisa Simmons (D) |
14 |
HD 96 |
David Cook (R)
Joe Drago (D) |
15 |
HD 93 |
Matt Krause (R-Inc)
Lydia Bean (D) |
16 |
HD 126 |
Sam Harless (R-Inc)
Natali Hurtado (D) |
17 |
HD 54 |
Brad Buckley (R-Inc)
Keke Williams (D) |
18 |
HD 135 |
Jon Rosenthal (D-Inc)
Justin Ray (R) |
19 |
HD 47 |
Vikki Goodwin (D-Inc)
Justin Berry (R) |
20 |
HD 45 |
Erin Zwiener (D-Inc)
Carrie Isaac (R) |
21 |
HD 65 |
Michelle Beckley (D-Inc)
Kronda Thimesch (R) |
22 |
HD 102 |
Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Inc)
Linda Koop (R) |
23 |
HD 28 |
Gary Gates (R-Inc)
Eliz Markowitz (D) |
24 |
HD 114 |
John Turner (D-Inc)
Luisa Del Rosal (R) |
25 |
HD 129 |
Dennis Paul (R-Inc)
Kayla Alix (D) |
26 |
HD 129 |
Ed Thompson (R-Inc)
Travis Boldt (D) |
27 |
HD 14 |
John Raney (R-Inc)
Janet Dudding (D) |
28 |
HD 32 |
Todd Hunter (R-Inc)
Eric Holguin (R) |
29 |
HD 106 |
Jared Patterson (R-Inc)
Jennifer Skidonenko (D) |
30 |
HD 85 |
Jim Murphy (R-Inc)
Sandra G. Moore (R) |
30 |
HD 89 |
Candy Noble (R-Inc)
Sugar Ray Ash (D) |
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TEXAS LEGISLATURE |
November 3, 2020 General Election
Texas House & Senate Races to Watch in 2020
Donations, Loans and Cash on September 24 |
|
SENATE DISTRICT 19 |
Pete Flores (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $627,919
Total Donations: $1,109,030
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $606,589 |
Roland Gutierrez (D)
Summer 2020: $199,270
Total Donations: $644,368
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $156,496 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 108 |
Morgan Meyer (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $565,760
Total Donations: $868,713
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $647,879 |
Joanna Cattanach (D)
Summer 2020: $463,416
Total Donations: $823,591
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $334,466 |
|
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HOUSE DISTRICT 138 |
Lacey Hull (R)
Summer 2020: $277,421
Total Donations: $193,946
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $84,768 |
Akilah Bacy (D)
Summer 2020: $630,566
Total Donations: $774,868
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $353,812 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 26 |
Jacey Jetton (R)
Summer 2020: $295,527
Total Donations: $703,656
Campaign Loans: $25,000
Cash on Hand: $91,923 |
Sarah DeMerchant (D)
Summer 2020: $322,434
Total Donations: $350,136
Campaign Loans: $975
Cash on Hand: $90,146 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 66 |
Matt Shaheen (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $253,546
Total Donations: $444,901
Campaign Loans: $187,000
Cash on Hand: $302,121 |
Sharon Hirsch (D)
Summer 2020: $419,160
Total Donations: $711,056
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $324,489 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 67 |
Jeff Leach (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $531,542
Total Donations: $1,078,525
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $485,813 |
Lorenzo Sanchez (D)
Summer 2020: $692,854
Total Donations: $821,210
Campaign Loans: $28,610
Cash on Hand: $233,734 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 112 |
Angie Chen Button (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $512,118
Total Donations: $895,302
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $953,840 |
Brandy Chambers (D)
Summer 2020: $533,344
Total Donations: $817,989
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $216,983 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 134 |
Sarah Davis (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $597,464
Total Donations: $825,280
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $299,564 |
Ann Johnson (D)
Summer 2020: $481,432
Total Donations: $991,823
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $314,593 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 121 |
Steve Allison (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $494,528
Total Donations: $769,033
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $222,337 |
Celina Montoya (D)
Summer 2020: $442,963
Total Donations: $619,386
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $325,986 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 97 |
Craig Goldman (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $196,361
Total Donations: $791,555
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $636,187 |
Elizabeth Beck (D)
Summer 2020: $501,011
Total Donations: $818,840
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $263,173 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 92 |
Jeffrey Cason (R)
Summer 2020: $219,158
Total Donations: $581,581
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $1,305 |
Jeff Whitfield (D)
Summer 2020: $362,948
Total Donations: $697,856
Campaign Loans: $19,700
Cash on Hand: $236,445 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 64 |
Lynn Stucky (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $323,609
Total Donations: $591,795
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $255,624 |
Angela Brewer (D)
Summer 2020: $361,767
Total Donations: $430,213
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $274,954 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 132 |
Mike Schofield (R)
Summer 2020: $252,100
Total Donations: $127,594
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $98,339 |
Gina Calanni (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $308,293
Total Donations: $183,109
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $235,007 |
|
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HOUSE DISTRICT 94 |
Tony Tinderholt (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $304,348
Total Donations: $391,299
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $48,878 |
Alisa Simmons (D)
Summer 2020: $184,169
Total Donations: $251,980
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $76,663 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 96 |
David Cook (R)
Summer 2020: $409,945
Total Donations: $609,584
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $370,913 |
Joe Drago (D)
Summer 2020: $321,421
Total Donations: $488,992
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $201,788 |
|
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HOUSE DISTRICT 93 |
Matt Krause (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $194,110
Total Donations: $530,364
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $516,078 |
Lydia Bean (D)
Summer 2020: $219,347
Total Donations: $428,458
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $198,808 |
|
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HOUSE DISTRICT 126 |
Sam Harless (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $449,291
Total Donations: $556,471
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $290,216 |
Natali Hurtado (D)
Summer 2020: $311,140
Total Donations: $476,225
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $210,475 |
|
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HOUSE DISTRICT 54 |
Brad Buckley (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $435,989
Total Donations: $580,599
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $303,905 |
Keke Williams (D)
Summer 2020: $336,235
Total Donations: $402,342
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $164,094 |
|
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HOUSE DISTRICT 135 |
Justin Ray (R)
Summer 2020: $418,811
Total Donations: $591,084
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $52,801 |
Jon Rosenthal (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $206,564
Total Donations: $416,650
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $110,589 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 47 |
Justin Berry (R)
Summer 2020: $446,275
Total Donations: $748,228
Campaign Loans: $100
Cash on Hand: $75,601 |
Vikki Goodwin (D-Inc)
Pandemic: $134,569
Total Donations: $408,747
Campaign Loans: $100
Cash on Hand: $201,971 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 45 |
Carrie Isaac (R)
Summer 2020: $323,609
Total Donations: $639,910
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $155,094 |
Erin Zwiener (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $417,524
Total Donations: $286,440
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $169,358 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 65 |
Kronda Thimesch (R)
Summer 2020: $269,935
Total Donations: $484,657
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $130,222 |
Michelle Beckley (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $201,301
Total Donations: $378,699
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $108,005 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 102 |
Linda Koop (R)
Summer 2020: $269,341
Total Donations: $496,579
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $58,993 |
Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $139,062
Total Donations: $270,088
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $98,054 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 93 |
Matt Krause (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $194,110
Total Donations: $530,364
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $516,078 |
Lydia Bean (D)
Summer 2020: $219,347
Total Donations: $428,458
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $198,808 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 126 |
Sam Harless (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $449,291
Total Donations: $556,471
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $290,216 |
Natali Hurtado (D)
Summer 2020: $311,140
Total Donations: $476,225
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $210,475 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 54 |
Brad Buckley (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $435,989
Total Donations: $580,599
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $303,905 |
Keke Williams (D)
Summer 2020: $336,235
Total Donations: $402,342
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $164,094 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 102 |
Linda Koop (R)
Summer 2020: $269,341
Total Donations: $496,579
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $58,993 |
Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $139,062
Total Donations: $270,088
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $98,054 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 28 |
Gary Gates (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $374,630
Total Donations: $955,229
Campaign Loans: $1,736,100
Cash on Hand: $303,905 |
Eliz Markowitz (D)
Summer 2020: $108,038
Total Donations: $510,380
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $68,241 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 114 |
Luisa Del Rosal (R)
Summer 2020: $398,602
Total Donations: $872,146
Campaign Loans: $10,000
Cash on Hand: $898 |
John Turner (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $165,163
Total Donations: $608,692
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $457,499 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 129 |
Dennis Paul (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $72,400
Total Donations: $323,864
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $45,876 |
Kayla Alix (D)
Summer 2020: $33,837
Total Donations: $35,978
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $898 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 29 |
Ed Thompson (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $106,896
Total Donations: $259,401
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $344,974 |
Travis Boldt (D)
Summer 2020: $59,421
Total Donations: $86,734
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $40,636 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 14 |
John Raney (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $97,066
Total Donations: $182,518
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $151,707 |
Janet Dudding (D)
Summer 2020: $42,842
Total Donations: $94,390
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $26,807 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 32 |
Todd Hunter (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $121,555
Total Donations: $342,219
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $1,889,408 |
Eric Holguin (D)
Summer 2020: $62,789
Total Donations: $156,336
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $14,292 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 106 |
Jared Patterson (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $47,259
Total Donations: $477,451
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $118,921 |
Jennifer Skidonenko (D)
Summer 2020: $39,982
Total Donations: $58,737
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $15,862 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 85 |
Phil Stephenson (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $12,375
Total Donations: $169,555
Campaign Loans: $4,794
Cash on Hand: $118,921 |
Joey Cardenas (D)
Summer 2020: $14,731
Total Donations: $24,279
Campaign Loans: $5,027
Cash on Hand: $2,831 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 133 |
Jim Murphy (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $140,000
Total Donations: $353,466
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $586,798 |
Sandra G. Moore (D)
Summer 2020: $10,976
Total Donations: $19,201
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $9,594 |
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HOUSE DISTRICT 89 |
Candy Noble (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $41,690
Total Donations: $115,519
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $151,749 |
Sugar Ray Ash (D)
Summer 2020: $4,764
Total Donations: $10,875
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $1,375 |
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Copyright
2003-2020 Capitol Inside |
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