Abbott Shows Teflon Look in New Poll
with Largest Advantange Since Uvalde

Capitol Inside
September 19, 2022

Governor Greg Abbott appeared to have a good chance of surviving a self-inflicted disaster when a new poll on Monday showed him with his biggest lead over Democrat Beto O'Rourke in a re-election bid since a teenager murdered 19 children and two teachers at an elementary school in Uvalde almost four months ago.

The incumbent Republican expanded his lead over O'Rourke to one point short of double digits in the survey that the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler conducted in the second week of September and released today. Abbott had support from 47 percent in the poll compared to 38 percent for O'Rourke.

The DMN/UT-Tyler findings represent Abbott's largest advantage since a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll found him up on O'Rourke by 11 points in April. That matched Abbott's largest lead in 2022 when a DMN/UT-Tyler survey showed him ahead of O'Rourke by 11 points with 47 percent support - the same share that he received in the poll that the Dallas newspaper and its polling partner in academia make public on Monday.

O'Rourke appeared to have substantial momentum in June and July when polls by Quinnipiac University and the University of Houston had him only 5 points behind Abbott - the closest the Democratic challenger had been since a Texas Lyceum poll found him in a statistical within 2 points of the second-term incumbent in March.

O'Rourke's summer surge was a product of several major factors including a backlash against the GOP for the Texas abortion ban and Donald Trump's diminishing popularity in his own party. But no singular event or issue appeared to have game-changing potential as much as the state's abysmal response to the sixth mass shooting on Abbott's watch and subsequent by the Department of Public Safety to dodge culpability with a floundering cover-up of the fact that it had 91 officers who failed at Robb Elementary to various degrees.

Abbott suffered the lowest of a long and storied political career when he parroted false tales off police heroism at the scene of the rampage where there'd been none. But the governor has embraced a strategy of blissful ignorance on the DPS incompetence in Uvalde and deception in the aftermath. It appears to be working like a charm based on the latest polling numbers.

The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler poll of 1,268 registered voters found Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick leading Democratic foe Mike Collier by 11 points. Attorney General Ken Paxton had a 7 point lead over Democrat Rochelle Garza in the new poll.

morwe to come ...