Dems Could Take Tiny Crucial Step
With One Seat Gain in House Chase

Capitol Inside
June 30, 2022

Texas Democrats could start their next rebuilding effort with a small but significant victory on the state House battlefield this fall if their nominees candidates prevailed in every district that President Joe Biden won when he ousted Donald Trump in 2020.

That would give the Democratic Party a net gain of one House seat at least in the 2022 general election on a map that GOP lawmakers in Austin drew last year for self-preservation instead of expanding the majority that they've held for almost 20 years in the state Capitol's west wing.

The Democrats would cut the GOP's current advantage to 82-66 under such a scenario, which would render the Republicans' current visions of red wave in November to be a mirage. But neither party has any real upside in the wake of a redistricting process that all but eliminated competition for the Legislature's lower chamber.

There are 10 to 12 House races that appear to have competitive potential to some degree - with Democrats on defense in only three with an opportunity to pick up three seats in districts that Biden carried in areas that are represented by Republicans now.

The Republicans are spotting Democrats a seat with the conversion of House District 92 in Tarrant County from GOP-leaning to likely Democratic in the 2021 redistricting plan. Democrats expect to flip House District 70 in Collin County where Biden reaped 54 percent of the 2020 vote.

Democrats have their next best chance for a turnover in House District 118, where GOP State Rep. John Lujan of San Antonio is dueling Democrat Frank Ramirez in a rematch of a special election runoff late last year. Biden scored almost 51 percent of the vote in HD 118 and 61 percent in HD 92.

The Capitol Inside crystal ball has the HD 70 and HD 118 races ranked as leans Democrat. HD 92 is rated likely Democratic here in the fall. Democrats have shots at three seats that Republicans are fighting to keep in races that are toss ups with State Reps. Morgan Meyer of Dallas, Angie Chen Button of Garland and Steve Allison of San Antonio up for re-election. House District 133 is in striking distance for the Democrats as well this fall in an affluent part of Houston where Trump escaped with 50.3 percent of the vote two years ago.

The Democrats could wrestle as many as seven House seats from the GOP in a best case scenario for the state's minority party. With HD 92 as an initial gimme, the Democrats could suffer a net loss of two seats as their worst outcome that's realistic on the current playing field in 2022.

Such a development hinges in part on the GOP flipping two House seats in districts in Denton and Williamson counties that Trump won two years ago. Republicans Kronda Thimesch of Lewisville and Caroline Harris of Round Rock are running as early favorites in open contests in districts that Democrats currently represent and Trump carried with 52 percent of the vote on average in 2020.

The House District 37 race in the Rio Grande Valley would give the GOP its only truly signature win if San Benito Republican Janie Lopez defeats Democratic foe Luis Villarreal Jr. of Mission. HD 37 had been a Democratic stronghold before its reshaping in 2021 as a swing district where Biden prevailed with 50.6 percent of the vote the year before.

Republicans have touted Lopez as a member of a cast of Latinas who are trying to pick up legislative and congressional seats from Democrats at the ballot box this year. The GOP has high expectations for congressional nominees Cassy Garcia of Laredo and Monica De La Cruz of Edinburg that Democrats are defending and newly-elected U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores of Los Indios in a district where Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen is the initial favorite.

Flores won a special session in Congressional District 34 this month. But he first term could be abbreviated in a district that Biden won with 57 percent of the 2020 vote.