Suburban Sacrifice Leaves GOP
in Position for One or Two Gains

Capitol Inside
October 2, 2021

Rookie State Rep. Jeff Cason of Bedford called out a pair of fellow Tarrant County Republicans on Friday amid the assertion that they'd abandoned him in the drawing of a new Texas House map on which he'd have little chance for survival at the polls in 2022.

Cason was infuriated when his home turf of House District 92 was born again as a Democratic district in the plan that GOP Speaker Dade Phelan's team rolled out the previous day. The freshman lawmaker blamed the unexpected snub on State Reps. Craig Goldman and Stephanie Klick - a pair of Fort Worth Republicans who are major Phelan lieutenants - arguing that they had the power to save him if they'd tried.

"This is the Austin Swamp at its absolute worst, but I will not be defeated so easily," Cason declared in a statement. "I will not go down without a fight. The people who worked hard to keep this district red deserve that."

Cason was the only major loser among the incumbent Republicans in PLANH2101 - the map that GOP State Rep. Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi filed this week as the chairman of the Redistricting Committee. But Republican State Rep. Hugh Shine of Temple did not fare that well in the House plan when the white population in House District 55 was slashed from 55 percent to 45 percent to reinforce a neighboring district that GOP State Rep. Brad Buckley of Salado represents in Bell County.

The House map was drawn to increase white representation and Republican seats in a state where minorities are responsible for 96 percent of the growth in the past 10 years.

The transformation of HD 92 from GOP-leaning swing district to solid Democrat is significant nonetheless simply because the Republicans could have designed a new Tarrant map to keep all of the eight seats they hold there now in the House. Cason's sacrifice could have been a token a gesture aimed at keeping Phelan's support from most of the Democrats intact for a re-election bid for speaker in 2023.

With HD 92 as the most glaring example and only exception, the proposed map in House Bill 1 isn't a go-for-broke plan like the Republicans could have drawn with the goal of picking up as many seats as possible at a time when their majority could be in the twilight stages. The House plan appears to be a delicate balancing act between the appearance of partisan gain for the new base on the far right and the preservation of the first-term speaker's power base that's depended substantially on Democrats.

The redistricting proposal in House Bill 1 could culminate in a net gain of only one seat for the majority party as a consequence of the conversion of Cason's seat to blue. The Republicans would be confident of picking up the districts that Democratic State Reps. Michelle Beckley of Carrollton and James Talarico of Round Rock represent now.

Two other Democrats - State Rep. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City and Erin Zwiener of Driftwood landed in districts that were tailored for the GOP as well. Several south Texas Democrats including State Reps. Tracy King of Uvalde, Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass and Abel Herrero of Corpus Christi would have districts that are more Republican than their current seats.

But Zwiener has an opportunity to relocate a few miles away in her current base of House District 45 in Hays County where she might have better odds on the new map with a significant drop in white residents. King, Morales and Herrero could expect to run as favorites as lawmakers with relatively conservative voting records for Democrats. Guillen could face the most imposing challenge in a new district that's Republican on paper. But Guillen sided with the Republicans on key issues this year more than any other Democrat in the House by far.

State Rep. Angie Chen Button of Garland would be the most vulnerable Republican in the HB 1 plan with Shine as a fairly close second on paper. But Republican State Reps. Jeff Leach of Allen, Lacey Hull of Houston, Matt Shaheen of Plano and State Allison of San Antonio could all be in some degree of peril in 2022 despite infusions of whites that they think they need to survive.

Cason decried the evisceration of his district as an "assault on the grassroots conservatives in Tarrant County" and "an insult to voters in Tarrant County who have fought so hard for conservative representation" in HD 92. Cason may have sealed his own demise on his first day as a lawmaker when he voted against Phelan's election to the House's top leadership post in January. Cason had the audacity near the end of the regular session when he accused Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Senate Republicans of opening the gate for more child pornography online in Texas as a result of a dispute on a rural broadband bill.

With enemies on all sides, Cason's district made a convenient nesting ground for Black and Hispanic residents who could be exported there from surrounding areas for the sake of bolstering Tarrant County's other seven GOP representatives with more white voters. The Republicans herded large sums of minority voters into a pair of Dallas County districts that Democratic State Reps. Ana-Maria Ramos and John Turner represent in moves that helped pad the only two remaining Republicans districts there with white residents.

The shuffling of more Hispanic and Black voters into the Williamson County district where Democratic State Rep. John Bucy of Austin plans to seek a new term made it possible to target Talarico on the new map.

But Cason pointed fingers at Goldman and Klick for failing to save him and HD 92. “They are two top chairmen and have the most pull in Tarrant County,” Cason said. “We can only surrender a seat to Democrats and punish the most conservative Representative in Tarrant if they allow it. Unfortunately it appears they planned it this way.”

Cason understood the politics behind the maneuvering that pulled rug from his re-election hopes. "The reason for this is simple; I am not a Republican who allows myself to be controlled by leadership, my vote belongs to you and not them. They reward members who give away their votes to leadership instead of independently representing the values of their voters."

But freshman Republican State Rep. Bryan Slaton of Royse City also cast an opposing vote in the speaker's election as well - and his district in northeast Texas remained intact with no incumbent pairing that some had predicted.

more to come ...