|
President
Biden +0.3% |
U.S. Senate
Cornyn +2.0% |
U.S. House
Dem +6 |
Texas Senate
Dem +1 |
Texas House
Dem +15 |
Blue Typhoon Could Put House Republicans
at Risk in Races that National Dems Ignoring
By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor
October 12, 2020
Plano Democrat Ray Ash emerged unbowed and undaunted from a blowout loss in 2018 before entering the ring again for a rematch with GOP State Rep. Candy Noble of Allen this fall in a race for a Texas House seat in a district that President Donald Trump won by 23 percentage points four years ago.
But the Democratic challenger in Texas House District 189 sounds more like a real contender this time around with an expanded ballot name that will conjure visions among older voters of boxing legends Sugar Ray Leonard and Sugar Ray Robinson in their prime.
Sugar Ray Ash is sailing toward election day in the same basic boat as House hopeful Sandra G. Moore - a Houston Democrat who didn't make it as far as Ash two years ago when she was eliminated in a primary runoff in House District 133 after finishing first in the opening round. Moore - like Ash - has been running as a substantial underdog in a duel with veteran Republican State Rep. Jim Murphy in a contest that hasn't been on the radar screen for national interests that have been bankrolling the Democrats' quest for the majority that they're favored to win at the polls three weeks from now.
The most expensive battle for control of the House in history is boiling down to two dozen swing districts based on the flow of the money to the lower chamber battlefield during the summer months. But a number of candidates who've been written off by the party elite like Moore and Ash actually could end up winning seats in the Legislature's lower chamber simply and exclusively because they are the Democratic nominees in suburban districts.
State Reps. Dennis Paul of Houston and Ed Thompson of Pearland are on the list of state representatives who might be in striking distance for the Democrats on November in districts that they thought were safely red a month ago.
The winning margins at the top of the last two GOP tickets in Texas fell more than 10 points in the districts that Thompson and Paul represent compared to the percentages that Governor Greg Abbott and Mitt Romney received in those suburban locations in 2014 and 2012. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz garnered 53 percent of the vote on average in the politically similar districts where Paul and Thompson are squaring off in the general election with Democrats Kayla Alix and Travis Boldt.
GOP State Rep. Jared Patterson of Frisco faces a much tougher test than he might have expected in September with Democratic challenger Jennifer Skidonenko keeping pace with the incumbent's modest fundraising during the past three months when he assumed he was safe. Romney and Abbott had both scored 68 percent of the vote in House District 106 where Patterson is the representative before the GOP share had plunged to 55 percent in 2018 when U.S. Senator Ted Cruz beat Democrat Beto O'Rourke there by 11.
Republican State Reps. John Raney of College Station and Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi are more at risk than they'd been a few weeks ago in bouts with Democrats Janet Dudding and Eric Holguin respectively.
Texas House Districts in Potential Blue Wave Path |
|
|
2012 |
2016 |
2014 |
2012 |
Change w/ Trump |
HD 14 |
Cruz 51-48 |
Trump 53-38 |
Abbott 65-32 |
Romney 63-35 |
GOP -12 |
HD 29 |
Cruz 52-47 |
Trump 55-41 |
Abbott 63-36 |
Romney 63-35 |
GOP -10 |
HD 32 |
Cruz 52-47 |
Trump 53-42 |
Abbott 58-39 |
Romney 57-41 |
GOP -05 |
HD 89 |
Cruz 56-43 |
Trump 58-35 |
Abbott 67-31 |
Romney 66-32 |
GOP -10 |
HD 106 |
Cruz 55-44 |
Trump 59-36 |
Abbott 68-30 |
Romney 68-31 |
GOP -11 |
HD 129 |
Cruz 54-45 |
Trump 55-40 |
Abbott 64-34 |
Romney 64-34 |
GOP -10 |
HD 133 |
Cruz 54-45 |
Trump 54-41 |
Abbott 68-30 |
Romney 68-30 |
GOP -14 |
|
|
TEXAS HOUSE RACES TO WATCH
Ranked on
Partisan Turnover Odds |
1 |
HD 108 |
Morgan Meyer (R-Inc)
Joanna Cattanach (D) |
2 |
HD 138 |
Lacey Hull (R)
Akilah Bacy (D) |
3 |
HD 66 |
Matt Shaheen (R-Inc)
Sharon Hirsch (D) |
4 |
HD 67 |
Jeff Leach (R-Inc)
Lorenzo Sanchez (D) |
5 |
HD 26 |
Jacey Jetton (R)
Sarah DeMerchant (D) |
6 |
HD 112 |
Angie Chen Button (R-Inc)
Brandy Chambers (D) |
7 |
HD 134 |
Sarah Davis (R-Inc)
Ann Johnson (D) |
8 |
HD 121 |
Steve Allison (R-Inc)
Celina Montoya (D) |
9 |
HD 97 |
Craig Goldman (R-Inc)
Elizabeth Beck (D) |
10 |
HD 92 |
Jeff Cason (R)
Jeff Whitfield (D) |
11 |
HD 64 |
Lynn Stucky (R-Inc)
Angela Brewer (D) |
12 |
HD 132 |
Gina Calanni (D-Inc)
Mike Schofield (R) |
13 |
HD 94 |
Tony Tinderholt (R-Inc)
Alisa Simmons (D) |
14 |
HD 96 |
David Cook (R)
Joe Drago (D) |
15 |
HD 93 |
Matt Krause (R-Inc)
Lydia Bean (D) |
16 |
HD 126 |
Sam Harless (R-Inc)
Natali Hurtado (D) |
17 |
HD 54 |
Brad Buckley (R-Inc)
Keke Williams (D) |
18 |
HD 135 |
Jon Rosenthal (D-Inc)
Justin Ray (R) |
19 |
HD 47 |
Vikki Goodwin (D-Inc)
Justin Berry (R) |
20 |
HD 45 |
Erin Zwiener (D-Inc)
Carrie Isaac (R) |
21 |
HD 65 |
Michelle Beckley (D-Inc)
Kronda Thimesch (R) |
22 |
HD 102 |
Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Inc)
Linda Koop (R) |
23 |
HD 28 |
Gary Gates (R-Inc)
Eliz Markowitz (D) |
24 |
HD 114 |
John Turner (D-Inc)
Luisa Del Rosal (R) |
25 |
HD 129 |
Dennis Paul (R-Inc)
Kayla Alix (D) |
26 |
HD 129 |
Ed Thompson (R-Inc)
Travis Boldt (D) |
27 |
HD 14 |
John Raney (R-Inc)
Janet Dudding (D) |
28 |
HD 32 |
Todd Hunter (R-Inc)
Eric Holguin (R) |
29 |
HD 106 |
Jared Patterson (R-Inc)
Jennifer Skidonenko (D) |
30 |
HD 85 |
Phil Stephenson (R-Inc)
Joey Cardenas (D) |
31 |
HD 85 |
Jim Murphy (R-Inc)
Sandra G. Moore (R) |
32 |
HD 89 |
Candy Noble (R-Inc)
Sugar Ray Ash (D) |
|
|
TEXAS LEGISLATURE |
November 3, 2020 General Election
Texas House & Senate Races to Watch in 2020
Donations, Loans and Cash on September 24 |
|
SENATE DISTRICT 19 |
Pete Flores (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $627,919
Total Donations: $1,109,030
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $606,589 |
Roland Gutierrez (D)
Summer 2020: $199,270
Total Donations: $644,368
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $156,496 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 108 |
Morgan Meyer (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $565,760
Total Donations: $868,713
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $647,879 |
Joanna Cattanach (D)
Summer 2020: $463,416
Total Donations: $823,591
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $334,466 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 138 |
Lacey Hull (R)
Summer 2020: $277,421
Total Donations: $193,946
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $84,768 |
Akilah Bacy (D)
Summer 2020: $630,566
Total Donations: $774,868
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $353,812 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 26 |
Jacey Jetton (R)
Summer 2020: $295,527
Total Donations: $703,656
Campaign Loans: $25,000
Cash on Hand: $91,923 |
Sarah DeMerchant (D)
Summer 2020: $322,434
Total Donations: $350,136
Campaign Loans: $975
Cash on Hand: $90,146 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 66 |
Matt Shaheen (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $253,546
Total Donations: $444,901
Campaign Loans: $187,000
Cash on Hand: $302,121 |
Sharon Hirsch (D)
Summer 2020: $419,160
Total Donations: $711,056
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $324,489 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 67 |
Jeff Leach (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $531,542
Total Donations: $1,078,525
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $485,813 |
Lorenzo Sanchez (D)
Summer 2020: $692,854
Total Donations: $821,210
Campaign Loans: $28,610
Cash on Hand: $233,734 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 112 |
Angie Chen Button (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $512,118
Total Donations: $895,302
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $953,840 |
Brandy Chambers (D)
Summer 2020: $533,344
Total Donations: $817,989
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $216,983 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 134 |
Sarah Davis (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $597,464
Total Donations: $825,280
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $299,564 |
Ann Johnson (D)
Summer 2020: $481,432
Total Donations: $991,823
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $314,593 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 121 |
Steve Allison (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $494,528
Total Donations: $769,033
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $222,337 |
Celina Montoya (D)
Summer 2020: $442,963
Total Donations: $619,386
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $325,986 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 97 |
Craig Goldman (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $196,361
Total Donations: $791,555
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $636,187 |
Elizabeth Beck (D)
Summer 2020: $501,011
Total Donations: $818,840
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $263,173 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 92 |
Jeffrey Cason (R)
Summer 2020: $219,158
Total Donations: $581,581
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $1,305 |
Jeff Whitfield (D)
Summer 2020: $362,948
Total Donations: $697,856
Campaign Loans: $19,700
Cash on Hand: $236,445 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 64 |
Lynn Stucky (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $323,609
Total Donations: $591,795
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $255,624 |
Angela Brewer (D)
Summer 2020: $361,767
Total Donations: $430,213
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $274,954 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 132 |
Mike Schofield (R)
Summer 2020: $252,100
Total Donations: $127,594
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $98,339 |
Gina Calanni (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $308,293
Total Donations: $183,109
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $235,007 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 94 |
Tony Tinderholt (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $304,348
Total Donations: $391,299
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $48,878 |
Alisa Simmons (D)
Summer 2020: $184,169
Total Donations: $251,980
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $76,663 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 96 |
David Cook (R)
Summer 2020: $409,945
Total Donations: $609,584
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $370,913 |
Joe Drago (D)
Summer 2020: $321,421
Total Donations: $488,992
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $201,788 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 93 |
Matt Krause (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $194,110
Total Donations: $530,364
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $516,078 |
Lydia Bean (D)
Summer 2020: $219,347
Total Donations: $428,458
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $198,808 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 126 |
Sam Harless (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $449,291
Total Donations: $556,471
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $290,216 |
Natali Hurtado (D)
Summer 2020: $311,140
Total Donations: $476,225
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $210,475 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 54 |
Brad Buckley (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $435,989
Total Donations: $580,599
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $303,905 |
Keke Williams (D)
Summer 2020: $336,235
Total Donations: $402,342
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $164,094 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 135 |
Justin Ray (R)
Summer 2020: $418,811
Total Donations: $591,084
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $52,801 |
Jon Rosenthal (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $206,564
Total Donations: $416,650
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $110,589 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 47 |
Justin Berry (R)
Summer 2020: $446,275
Total Donations: $748,228
Campaign Loans: $100
Cash on Hand: $75,601 |
Vikki Goodwin (D-Inc)
Pandemic: $134,569
Total Donations: $408,747
Campaign Loans: $100
Cash on Hand: $201,971 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 45 |
Carrie Isaac (R)
Summer 2020: $323,609
Total Donations: $639,910
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $155,094 |
Erin Zwiener (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $417,524
Total Donations: $286,440
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $169,358 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 65 |
Kronda Thimesch (R)
Summer 2020: $269,935
Total Donations: $484,657
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $130,222 |
Michelle Beckley (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $201,301
Total Donations: $378,699
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $108,005 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 102 |
Linda Koop (R)
Summer 2020: $269,341
Total Donations: $496,579
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $58,993 |
Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $139,062
Total Donations: $270,088
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $98,054 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 93 |
Matt Krause (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $194,110
Total Donations: $530,364
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $516,078 |
Lydia Bean (D)
Summer 2020: $219,347
Total Donations: $428,458
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $198,808 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 126 |
Sam Harless (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $449,291
Total Donations: $556,471
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $290,216 |
Natali Hurtado (D)
Summer 2020: $311,140
Total Donations: $476,225
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $210,475 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 54 |
Brad Buckley (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $435,989
Total Donations: $580,599
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $303,905 |
Keke Williams (D)
Summer 2020: $336,235
Total Donations: $402,342
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $164,094 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 102 |
Linda Koop (R)
Summer 2020: $269,341
Total Donations: $496,579
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $58,993 |
Ana-Maria Ramos (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $139,062
Total Donations: $270,088
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $98,054 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 28 |
Gary Gates (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $374,630
Total Donations: $955,229
Campaign Loans: $1,736,100
Cash on Hand: $303,905 |
Eliz Markowitz (D)
Summer 2020: $108,038
Total Donations: $510,380
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $68,241 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 114 |
Luisa Del Rosal (R)
Summer 2020: $398,602
Total Donations: $872,146
Campaign Loans: $10,000
Cash on Hand: $898 |
John Turner (D-Inc)
Summer 2020: $165,163
Total Donations: $608,692
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $457,499 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 129 |
Dennis Paul (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $72,400
Total Donations: $323,864
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $45,876 |
Kayla Alix (D)
Summer 2020: $33,837
Total Donations: $35,978
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $898 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 29 |
Ed Thompson (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $106,896
Total Donations: $259,401
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $344,974 |
Travis Boldt (D)
Summer 2020: $59,421
Total Donations: $86,734
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $40,636 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 14 |
John Raney (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $97,066
Total Donations: $182,518
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $151,707 |
Janet Dudding (D)
Summer 2020: $42,842
Total Donations: $94,390
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $26,807 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 32 |
Todd Hunter (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $121,555
Total Donations: $342,219
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $1,889,408 |
Eric Holguin (D)
Summer 2020: $62,789
Total Donations: $156,336
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $14,292 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 106 |
Jared Patterson (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $47,259
Total Donations: $477,451
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $118,921 |
Jennifer Skidonenko (D)
Summer 2020: $39,982
Total Donations: $58,737
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $15,862 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 85 |
Phil Stephenson (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $12,375
Total Donations: $169,555
Campaign Loans: $4,794
Cash on Hand: $118,921 |
Joey Cardenas (D)
Summer 2020: $14,731
Total Donations: $24,279
Campaign Loans: $5,027
Cash on Hand: $2,831 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 133 |
Jim Murphy (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $140,000
Total Donations: $353,466
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $586,798 |
Sandra G. Moore (D)
Summer 2020: $10,976
Total Donations: $19,201
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $9,594 |
|
|
HOUSE DISTRICT 89 |
Candy Noble (R-Inc)
Summer 2020: $41,690
Total Donations: $115,519
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $151,749 |
Sugar Ray Ash (D)
Summer 2020: $4,764
Total Donations: $10,875
Campaign Loans: $0
Cash on Hand: $1,375 |
|
|
|
Copyright
2003-2020 Capitol Inside |
|
|
|
|