|
GOP RUNOFF |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
CORNYN |
PAXTON |
LEADER |
|
3/31-22 |
1,217 LV |
41% |
49% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/17-19 |
807 LV |
39% |
42% |
Paxton +3 |
|
3/12-17 |
900 LV |
37% |
53% |
Paxton +16 |
|
3/07-08 |
781 LV |
41% |
49% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/05-06 |
565 LV |
42% |
45% |
Paxton +3 |
|
Florida Dems Flip House and Senate Seat
Including District President Calls Home
Capitol Inside
March 20, 2026
Republicans across the USA found anxiety levels soaring to new highs on Wednesday after Democrats flipped a couple of state legislative seats in Florida in special elections the night before including a House district where President Donald Trump is a resident and voter.
The victories by Democrats Emily Gregory and Brian Nathan in the special contests in the Sunshine State were in the same league of symbolic magnitude as Democratic State Senator Taylor Rehmet's rout of a Republican in a special election runoff in Texas in January in a district where Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples by more than 2 points in Florida House District 87 in Palm Beach County where she had 51.2 percent of the vote with over 95 percent counted. Gregory will be Trump's state representative after knocking off the candidate who the president endorsed with gushing superlatives on the eve of the special vote.
The Republican incumbent in HD 87 crushed a Democratic challenger by 19 points in the 2024 general election in Florida. Trump won there by 9 points that year. But the real shocker on Tuesday night came when Nathan appeared poised for an underdog victory in Florida Senate District 14 with a razor-thin lead that Republicans will hope to erase in a recount.
Nathan was up on Republican Josie Tomkow by a half-percentage point on Wednesday with more than 95 percent of the ballots tallied in the Senate district that includes Hillsborough County and a chunk of Tampa. Trump won in SD 14 in Florida by 7 points in 2024. A union leader and military veteran, Nathan had one dollar for the Florida Senate race for every $10 that Tomkow had as a former House member there.
Trump, who'd voted by mail despite claims that Democrats steal elections with mail-in ballots, issued a glowing endorsement for Maples like he'd done for Rehmet's GOP rival Leigh Wambsganss before the Senate runoff election in Texas on January 31.
"Jon is a very successful Businessman and Civic Leader, who is known and loved, and also endorsed by so many of my Palm Beach County friends, including by Great State Representative 'MAGA' Meg Weinberger," Trump said in a Truth Social post. "Jon will be a terrific Legislator! As your next State Representative, Jon will fight tirelessly to Grow the Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., Stop Migrant Crime, Safeguard our Elections, Support our Military, Veterans, and Law Enforcement, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment."
Democrats have turned more than two dozen seats in state legislatures from red to blue since the general election 16 months ago. Democratic candidates flipped a state House seat in Arkansas and one in New Hampshire earlier this month. The win in Arkansas marked the first time that Democrats have picked up a seat in the Legislature there in more than a decade. A Democrat won a special election in February in Louisiana in a state House district where Trump and Republicans had been winning easily.
Republicans - in contrast - haven't flipped any legislative districts around the country since the general election in 2024. The Democrats' biggest triumph on the legislative battlefields since that time had come in Tarrant County with Rehmet's underdog win in Texas Senate District 9 where Trump had defeated Kamala Harris by 17 points in 2024.
Rehmet beat Wambsganss by 14 points in the special election runoff in SD 9 where she'd had more than five times as much cash to spend on the race. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick backed Wambsganss and bankrolled her campaign - and Governor Greg Abbott assured Republicans that she would prevail against Rehmet in overtime because the district had been drawn for the GOP.
Wambsganss and Patrick portrayed the upset in SD 9 as an aberration that a low turnout made possible. But the turnout for OT there was actually higher than any ever recorded in a Texas Senate runoff in the latest example of how large turnouts typically favor Democrats.
“Floridians are tired of the chaos, corruption, and sky high prices on everything from groceries, to gas, and health care,” Florida Democratic Chair Nikki Fried said about the special election outcomes.“They are voting for trusted leaders like Emily to steady the ship and return common sense, people-centered solutions back to our communities.”
Democratic Committee Chairman Ken Martin portrayed the Florida races as a harbinger for the GOP can expect in the fall. "This big win is yet another warning sign to Republicans across the country, and a new reality is now sinking in: no Republican seat is safe,"
Martin declared on Wednesday. more to come ...
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