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| GOP consultant @jordandberry touts 21-0 record en route to MVP for Texas primary election on March 5, 2024 |
Perfect Mark Earns Berry Consultant MVP
as Crow and Griffin Get Big Individual Wins
Capitol Inside
March 13, 2024
The 2024 primary election was a stage for epic prosperity without precedent for the top Texas campaign consultants thanks to a record-devouring number of state House races with Republican incumbents doing battle with challengers who ran hard to the right in almost every case.
But the A-list consiglieres who'd gained fame fighting Democrats found that the cost of expanded business opportunities came at a painful price in new roles as mercenaries in a savage civil war in the GOP here. Wins were sweeter than usual - but the losses were downright excruciating for the outside strategists who advised House Republicans who were ousted at the polls last week.
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Jordan Berry - MVP |
Most Valuable Consultant
Jordan Berry - Berry Communications
Best Incumbent Campaign
KC Strategies - Drew Darby
Best Challenger Campaign
Griffin Communications - Shelley Luther
Best Newcomer Campaign
Lexington Strategy Group - Jeff Leach
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The most prolific GOP consultants at the state level in Texas can testify to that - with one highly notable exception. Jordan Berry posted a remarkable record of 21 wins without a single loss on a blood-soaked House battlefield that featured a pair of challengers who knocked off incumbent representatives for the GOP. Berry is the one and only contender for best consultant honors in the Best of the Texas Primary Election as a consequence of the table run in round one.
Austin-based strategists Keats Norfleet and Chad Crow both notched milestone victories in the initial Texas vote by GOP State Reps. Stan Lambert of Abilene and Drew Darby of San Angelo respectively in fights against challengers who Governor Greg Abbott spent more than a million dollars trying to elect. But Norfleet Strategies and Crow's firm KC Strategies both suffered major setbacks with other incumbent Republicans on their individual primary slates.
Murphy Nasica - the largest, most diversified and busiest consulting shop in Texas - had its most brutal showing at the polls to date with the loss of four House Republicans in the initial vote and four more as early underdogs in fights with challengers on the runoff ballot May 28. Murphy Nasica could a victory for the ages if the signature client - House Speaker Dade Phelan - can overcome a 3-point deficit in the first vote and send challenger David Covey of Orange to the losers ranks in a hometown re-election race in overtime.
Phelan plans to present a gameplan for the runoff to deep-pocket members of the statehouse lobby at a summit that he's called for next week in Austin. The speaker ostensibly will announce that he fully expects to win the nomination in House District 21 en route to a third term in the dais in 2025. But that's what he said before the first vote in a race that has Donald Trump as Covey's most prominent supporter in a cheering section that includes Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller waving pom poms as well.
After having State Reps. Steve Allison of San Antonio, Glenn Rogers of Graford and Hugh Shine of Temple go down as Abbott voucher vengeance victims, Murphy Nasica took another hit when State Rep. Jill Dutton of Ben Wheeler lost to Brent Money in the primary election less two months after she defeated him a special runoff election. Abbott endorsed Money despite the fact that he'd portrayed the governor as spineless in the past. But Abbott had gushed with congratulations for Dutton on the special election victory in OT before going silent in House District 2 after that.
Murphy Nasica could see more three more clients fall in spring runoffs with GOP State Reps. John Kuempel of Seguin, Frederick Frazier of McKinney and Justin Holland of Rockwall in serious peril. Abbott wants to replace Kuempel and Holland with challengers. While the governor has endorsed Frazier for a second term, the odds for a come-from-behind win in round two could be low. Based on Texas Ethics Commission expenditure records for House races, Murphy Nasica had a first-round record of 11-7 after three more defeats in open races in contested primaries for the House. The firm's record for round one was 17-7 when a half-dozen incumbent Republicans who ran unopposed are added to the mix.
Berry Communications went 10-0 in the primary election in House races with eight incumbents and a pair of challengers who Abbott bankrolled in Joanne Shofner of Nacogdoches and Hillary Hickland of Belton. Berry posted a perfect mark with 21 total wins when 10 House Republicans and one candidate in an open East Texas race for the lower chamber all ran unopposed.
Berry ended up with a much safer set of candidates in House races than his chief competitors in the industry by virtue of the fact that his clients had Abbott in their corners for every contested race. The governor's involvement across the ring made races all but impossible to win.
That's why Crow's firm KC Strategies is a cinch here for best incumbent campaign as the top outside adviser for Darby in a fight with a challenger who had way north of a half-million dollars from Abbott and the governor as the head cheerleader at pep rallies in House District 72. Abbott embellished his high-dollar support for Stormy Bradley with angry allegations and insults that he hurled at Darby after the incumbent found ways to get beneath the skin and keep him rattled.
Norfleet was a credible runner-up in the incumbent consultant competition with Lambert's victory over Liz Case Pickens in the GOP primary in House District 71. Lambert and Darby were the only two fish that got away in the Abbott targeting extravaganza that took aim at 10 Republicans who snubbed him on school choice last fall. But Abbott appeared to be back off the pedal in HD 71 in the closing weeks of the race while upping his ante in the neighboring Darby district.
Norfleet had candidates prevail in the first round in two open House races on top of two incumbent wins. But Norfleet recorded losses that had to sting with State Reps. Ernest Bailes of Shepherd, Jacey Jetton of Sugar Land and Shine unseated by challengers last week. While Bailes and Shine were Abbott targets, Jetton had the governor's vigorous support and lost to a challenger with a fraction of the funding nonetheless.
KC Strategies lost with the incumbent Smith and House hopeful Hatch Smith in an open race. Crow might need a monumental effort to save GOP State Reps. DeWayne Burns of Cleburne, Lynn Stucky of Sanger and Gary VanDeaver of New Boston in runoffs that they can all expect to run as underdogs to various degrees.
Elliott Griffin gets the nod here for best challenger effort for his work on Shelley Luther's campaign that culminated with a victory over State Rep. Reggie Smith of Sherman at the ballot box last week. Luther faced a potential third strike after failed bids for the Texas Senate in 2020 and the House District 62 seat in 2022. And she was running as the underdog from the outset of the rematch with no real hope for a fiddle of gold from Abbott despite the incumbent's vote against school choice in special session last fall. Luther had been a ferocious Abbott critic during and after the covid pandemic when she'd gone to jail for operating her business in violation of the governor's emergency orders.
Griffin - who runs Griffin Communications - broke into the business here two years ago as a strategist for Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham in her first statewide race and State Rep. Mark Dorazio of San Antonio in a debut campaign for the House in an open contest. Griffin contributed substantially to his reputation as rising Republican star in the Texas campaign consulting ranks with victories that Abbott-backed challengers Marc LaHood of San Antonio and Mike Olcott of Aledo scored in duels with targeted incumbents in round one.
Griffin had a chance to win another House primary fight in OT without the governor on the team as a consultant for Katrina Pierson in a runoff with State Rep. Justin Holland - a Rockwall Republican who'd also voted no on vouchers. But Abbott endorsed Pierson after she advanced to overtime with a narrow lead and he could be in position to claim credit that he really doesn't deserve if she wins round two. Griffin scored another first round win with GOP State Rep. John Smithee of Amarillo. But he lost a couple with State Rep. Travis Clardy's fall to Shofner and the Pickens defeat at Lambert's hands.
The final accolade goes to the duo of Mitch Carney and Rocky Gage for top newcomer honors in the first round as a product of their work for State Rep. Jeff Leach - a Plano Republican who'd been ranked as the most vulnerable incumbent for the GOP in the wake of the House's failed attempt to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton last year. Paxton wanted to beat Leach worse than any of three dozen House Republicans who targeted in his own retribution tour that revolved on the impeachment.
Leach enlisted Carney and Gage and their firm Lexington Strategy Group for his current re-election campaign that culminated in a 30-point blowout win over handpicked Paxton challenger Daren Meis in House District 67. Leach knew he could expect to have detractors try to use his close association with Phelan as a noose. But Leach had Abbott as an active supporter - and that trumped Paxton endorsements in most if not all races where the governor and AG were on opposite sides.
Every candidate who Abbott endorsed owes a significant debt to the governor. But the word on the streets in the suburbs north of Dallas is that Leach was very happy with Carney and Gage - and the HD 67 contest could be a springboard to more work in Texas. The new Leach strategist's father is Dave Carney, who's the Texas governor's top outside adviser, for what that connection may be worth someday.
The Best of the Texas Primary Election will be rolled out in single installments as per tradition here in recent election years. |
