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March 12, 2008

Primary Results Mix Pleasure with Pain
for Most Top Texas Political Consultants

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

The thrill of victory was tempered by the bad taste of defeat for most of the state's top political consultants after the votes had been counted in the primary election last week. With only a few scattered exceptions, the results of the vote were a bittersweet bag of big wins and bitter loses for most of the political pros on the Texas Political Consultants Power Rankings scoring system leaderboard for the first round of the competition in 2008.

The Houston firm run by Democratic strategists Dan McClung, Reed Hibbitts and Robert Jara savored several key wins including Armando Walle's victory over State Rep. Kevin Bailey, but one of their candidates fell short when State Rep. Borris Miles lost to former House member Al Edwards in a primary rematch in Houston last week. Austin consultants Kelly Fero and Jeff Hewitt had Democratic primary victories at the state and local levels and even helped a challenger oust a Republican incumbent in a race that could have cost Speaker Tom Craddick a vote of support in his bid for another term as House leader. But the Austin firm that Fero and Hewitt run ended up on the losing side in State Rep. Aaron Pena's victory over Eddie Saenz in a Democratic primary race with an incumbent who's been a Craddick ally.

Top-level Republican consultants like Bryan Eppstein, Todd Smith and Jason Johnson had cause for both celebration and disappointment in the wake of the primary election. Eppstein had key victories by Harris County Judge Ed Emmett and State Rep. Charlie Geren in Fort Worth offset by State Rep. Pat Haggerty's loss to Dee Margo in El Paso and a couple of other defeats in key House battles. Smith claimed a major victory when State Rep. Charles "Doc" Anderson beat Jonathan Sibley with 64 percent of the GOP primary vote - and several other incumbents he represented won key House races as well. But Smith failed to run the table when Quico Canseco lost to Lyle Larson in one of the hottest congressional primary races in Texas this year.

Johnson helped show Mark Shelton the way to victory without the need for a runoff in a Republican primary fight for a Fort Worth-area House seat that he sought late last year before losing in a runoff to a Democrat who he'll face in a November rematch. While Johnson had another candidate qualify for an April runoff in a race for an open House seat, a big one got away when when State Rep. Nathan Macias lost to GOP challenger Doug Miller by 38 votes after leading for hours in a primary fight that the incumbent could still win if a recount that's expected overturns the outcome. Republican consultant Court Koenning claimed a huge victory when Allen Fletcher beat State Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale in a high-stakes race in the Houston area. But Koenning didn't have as much to cheer about after State Rep. Robert Talton placed fourth in a field of 10 Republicans in a congressional primary battle that be will settled in a runoff featuring the two candidates who had by far the most money.

Republican strategists Allen Blakemore, Craig Murphy, Kevin Brannon and Jeff Norwood had higher batting averages in the opening round than the other top campaign consultants in Texas. Brannon celebrated a huge win with State Rep. Phil King's lopsided victory in a contest that quite a few Democrats and Republicans had been predicting he'd lose - and the consultant from Allen helped guide Randy Dunning into a runoff for an open House seat that he'll have a decent shot at winning despite a second-place finish behind Angie Chen Button in round one last week. But Brannon's colleagues at the Patriot Group had mixed results in the primary vote with Republican primary losses in races for Harris County judge and an open state House seat and victories in several key House races as consultants for the Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC.

Norwood helped Margo beat Haggerty and moved into position for another potential win when Martha Tyroch won a spot in a runoff with the most votes in another race for an open House seat. While Norwood and Brannon are both undefeated after round one, they didn't have as many opportunities to lose as some of the other top-rated Texas consultants who had more candidates in contested primary battles this year.

Murphy and his partner Chris Turner fared better than any of their rivals on the Texas political consulting scene in the first round of the voting this year. Murphy Turner & Associates claimed huge victories when former Mesquite Mayor Mike Anderson and Miller beat State Rep. Thomas Latham and Macias respectively in last week's election. Murphy and Turner scored another win with an easy GOP primary victory by State Rep. Bill Zedler - and they helped Button win the most votes in round one en route to a runoff for the seat that State Rep. Fred Hill's not seeking again in north Dallas County. But some of the success that the consultants from Arlington enjoyed last week could be short-lived with Button facing a tough fight in the runoff and a recount expected in the race that Miller won at the wire last week.

The victories in races against two House incumbents that Craddick's team favored came less than a year after Murphy Turner drew the wrath of some partisan Republicans for representing a former city councilman who had the local Democratic Party's support in a runoff for Dallas mayor. That was the last race Murphy and Turner lost. But Murphy contends that it would be inaccurate to say that his firm could be on the verge of gaining a reputation as anti-party establishment - pointing to Zedler and other Craddick supporters that he represents while suggesting that there's no guarantee how Anderson and Miller will vote in the speaker's race if they beat Democratic foes in November. Murphy says his firm has made it a point to avoid such a niche.

Blakemore, the busiest GOP consultant in Houston, helped State Rep. John Davis survive a primary challenger while advising Randy Weber in a race for an open House seat against two Republican foes that he beat last week without the need for a runoff. Blakemore also had key assists in primary victories by King and State Senator Tommy Williams. But this year hasn't been all gain with no pain for Blakemore as the consultant for Chuck Rosenthal, who cancelled his re-election campaign for district attorney and resigned in January in the midst an email scandal.

Campaign Strategies - the Democratic consulting firm that McClung, Hibbitts and Jara lead in Houston - added victories to its resume with primary wins by State Reps. Garnet Coleman and Jessica Farrar and Supreme Court candidate Sam Houston. But Campaign Strategies was on the losing side in challenger Ron Reynold's bid to unseat Olivo - and Walle's victory over one of the Republican speaker's Democratic supporters was mitigated by Miles' loss to Craddick ally Edwards two years after he'd ousted him from the House.

Fero and Hewitt had a variety of roles during the first round this year as the consultants for Democratic state Senate primary winner Joe Jaworski and Travis County Tax Assessor-Collector Nelda Spears in a highly-publicized battle that she won against former House member Glen Maxey. Fero-Hewitt Global also helped assistant prosecutor Rosemary Lehmberg qualify for a runoff against Mindy Montford in the race for the Travis County district attorney's post that their boss Ronnie Earle isn't seeking again. Fero and Hewitt produced television ads and direct mail that a group of racetrack owners used against Republican State Rep. Betty Brown, Macias and King in an advertising blitz that ended with one win against two losses. Brown beat Wade Gent for the second time in two years in another primary battle that was critical to Craddick's future as speaker.

While Fero and Hewitt won more than they lost in round one of the primary, their biggest accomplishment so far this year might have come when they helped scare off potential opposition for Roland Gutierrez, a former San Antonio city councilman who's unopposed in both the primary and general elections in his bid for an open House seat. The opening came about after Fero helped stir up some bad publicity for the incumbent, ex-House member Robert Puente, before he decided not to run again and stepped down early.

The Democratic primary election proved to be lucrative for a South Texas consulting firm led Brad McCumber and Don Breeden, who helped Pena and Rios Ybarra win high-stakes races against House members who've been staunch Craddick foes. The Brownsville-based firm Breeden/McCumber also helped Marisa Marquez in her winning campaign against veteran State Rep. Paul Moreno as a consultant for TLR this year. But like most of the other consultants in big league state races this year, Breeden/McCumber failed to win them all when client John Shergold fell short in a bid against State Rep. Rene Oliveira in a Democratic primary battle.

The biennial scoring system for campaign strategists is an offshoot of the Texas Political Consultant Power Rankings that Capitol Inside will publish later this year. The scores will be updated after the April 8 primary runoff vote and the general election as well.

Consultants scored six points for victories in the 18 most competitive state House races and the three hottest congressional battles in this year's primary competition. They picked up additional points for beating incumbents, winning key races with more than 60 percent of the vote and claiming nominations without the need for runoffs in fields of three candidates or more. Victories in hotly-contested statewide races and a few high-profile local battles for posts such as Harris County judge and Travis DA paid five points each. All other wins in legislative, congressional and statewide races were worth three points apiece. Instead of being penalized, consultants received consolation points for races they lost, based on the theory that business is generally better than no business at all. Points were also awarded for special circumstances and roles that are outlined in the scoring index. The scoring system here isn't scientific - even though it attempts to be as objective as possible in a subjective sort of way. We welcome the input of information on whatever we've missed.