Crenshaw Primetime Convention Shunning May
Spark Texas Stampede Away from the President

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor
August 27, 2020

U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw has given Texas Republicans significant cover in desperation attempts to run from the top of the ticket by declining to utter the name of President Donald Trump in a speech on Wednesday night at the national GOP convention.

Crenshaw - a congressional rookie whose star had been on a meteoric rise heading into 2020 - sent the president an invitation to attack him when he failed to mention Trump or Democrat Joe Biden in a four-minute discussion on heroism on the third night of the Republican National Convention.

The Crenshaw cold shoulder conjured memories of U.S. Senator Ted Cruz's speech at the 2016 RNC when he didn't endorse Trump as expected after a bitter fight between the two for the nomination. Cruz had eventually capitulated amid heat from the right and pitched his support behind Trump before the election - and he's been one of the president's strongest supporters ever since.

But the prime time Crenshaw snub is a very different story in light of the fact that the freshman lawmaker from Houston had been a Trump darling until now. Crenshaw - unlike Cruz - is having to run on the same ballot with Trump in a battle for re-election with Democrat Sima Ladjevardian in Congressional District 2 this fall. Cruz had two years to mend fences with the president.

While Crenshaw had broken ranks at time with the White House on policy issues, he'd been one of Trump's most staunch defenders during the early stages of the coronavirus crisis when he became the leading surrogate for the president's response to the COVID-19 pandemic on television and social media.

Crenshaw had been relying on false and misleading information - however - and the decision to ignore Trump completely on the night before his official coronation as the nominee again could be a last-ditch attempt to save his own credibility.

The omission of the president in the RNC speech as the only Texas official with a speaking part at the event suggests that the fight between Crenshaw and Ladjevardian is much closer than national analysts have perceived it to be up to now. While veteran political prognosticators Charles Cook and Larry Sabato currently have the CD 2 race as likely Republican, Capitol Inside has had the Crenshaw-Ladjevardian fight as a toss up for the past month or more.

Most if not all of the Texas Republicans in competitive down-ballot battles have quit mentioning Trump on the campaign trail in a state where Biden's odds of an upset have never been higher. Crenshaw's ignoring of the president at the RNC will fuel perceptions of a GOP disaster in the making in Texas where the Republicans haven't lost in a presidential contest since 1976.

The Democrats are targeting a half-dozen U.S. House races in Texas with the possibility of flipping more seats here with a blue tsunami in November. Democrats will seize control of the majority in the Texas House with a nine-seat net gain this fall.

The Cook Report and Sabato crystal ball at the University of Virginia both have the seats that U.S. Rep. Chip Roy of Austin and U.S. Reps. Kenny Marchant of Coppell and Pete Olson of Sugar Land are giving up rated as coin flips. They have the CD 23 seat that Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is an all but prohibitive favorite to win as leans Democrat.

A poll this week by the progressive firm ALG Research found Democrat Wendy Davis and Roy tied at 46 percent support each in CD 21 that was safely Republican before Trump's emergence as the party leader.

While Capitol Inside agrees on CD 23, the forecast here has the CD 24 and CD 22 seats that Marchant and Olson are leaving behind in the leans Democrat category along with CD 10 and CD 31 where U.S. Reps. Michael McCaul of Austin and Join Carter of Georgetown are doing battle with Democrats Mike Siegel and Donna Iman respectively.

Democrat Candace Valenzuela is dueling GOP foe Beth Van Duyne in CD 24 where the Republican scored an endorsement from Trump before the primary election in March. After almost losing to current Democratic U.S. Senate nominee MJ Hegar in 2018, Carter appears to be at far more risk this time around with Trump leading the ticket during a pandemic that's derailed his presidency and contributed to his status as a significant underdog this fall.

Hegar in the meantime is taking aim at U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the race right below the White House competition in another Texas toss up with the incumbent having only two months left to try to distance himself from a president with whom he spent more than a year praising and defending.