Statewide Democrat +2 GOP 6-2

Texas House Democrat +8 GOP 80-70

Texas Senate Break Even GOP 19-12

US House Break Even GOP 25-13

Crystal Ball Sees Talarico in Senate Thriller
Thanks to Primary Strategy Paxton Pursues

Capitol Inside
June 18, 2026

The odds for a blue wave slamming the Lone Star State are higher than they were going into the Texas GOP Convention last week when the Republicans appeared to be less united than ever, resting on laurels and out of touch with the national climate with an approach that's tailor-made for a primary election.

The Capitol Inside crystal ball sees the Texas midterm election shaping up as a replay of 2018 during President Donald Trump's first term when a tsunami swept Democrats to victories in races for a dozen Texas House seats, two state Senate districts and two congressional posts that Republicans controlled until then. Trump was more popular then than he is now - with approval ratings collapsing among Hispanics, independents and rural voters who'd backed him in strong numbers the past.

But Republican Ken Paxton is treating Trump's support as the U.S.Senate nominee for the Republicans as though it will be a valuable to him and the candidates on the ballot below him as it was when the president issued a formal endorsement to him a week before a primary runoff he went on to win in a rout. The Texas attorney general has been undaunted by Trump's record low approval marks - and he's wrapping himself more in the president for the general election than he did during the primary and runoff battle before he intervened in the stretch before the overtime vote.

Democrat James Talarico has a paper-thin edge over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate fight in the view here on the U.S. Senate race - in significant part to the wedding of his campaign to Trump with no apparent plan on how to respond to questions on the issues and concerns that have driven his favorability ratings to rock bottom. Paxton vowed at the state convention to bring prices down for Texas consumers and make the state more affordable without acknowledging the role Trump policies have had in the country's economic woes.

Paxton's speech to the state GOP convention revealed a three-part game plan that revolves on Trump, an attempt to paint Talarico as a sissy and the long list of lawsuits he filed against industry titans like Google and Netflix and the federal government when Democrats were in charge. But Paxtons and the Republicans in Houston featured no debate or discussion on the topic of adaptability to a national climate that hasn't appeared this bad for the GOP in two dozen years of Republican dominance in Texas.

Paxton and the Republicans made no apparent effort at the state convention to come up with a collective response to questions from the media and Democratic opponents on the issues that have defined Trump's second term. There was no apparent focus in Houston on ways to counter criticism on a roller coaster economy, the Epstein files or Trump's war in Iran and the deal to end it that's been slammed by Israel as a "catastrophic capitulation" to terrorists amid fierce backlash from Republicans in Congress and the party's far right as well.

As the U.S. Senate nominee who's leading the GOP ticket in a state where the president's approval marks have been under water in recent polls, Paxton is gambling the Republicans' hold on the Senate on a dramatic rebound in Trump's popularity when the nation's leader has shown no real interest in the party's fate. Instead of trying to create some distance in the meantime, Paxton said this week that he would team up with Trump for a novel national midterm election that the AG says will take place in Dallas in September.

Trump appeared to be baggage for the Republicans in Texas eight years ago when he staged a rally for U.S. Senate Ted Cruz in Houston two weeks before a general election showdown at the top of the ticket with Democrat Beto O'Rourke. Cruz almost lost in the Trump's event wake when he beat O'Rourke by less than 3 percentage points. Paxton had the second lowest winning margin in non-judicial statwide races in Texas in 2018 - defeated a relatively unknown and underfund Democratic challenger by 3.56 points. The down-ballot destruction was unprecedented for the GOP here that year.

Paxton has no defense against the Democrats' attempts to discredit him with the recycling of stories on criminal charges he's faced in the past and accusations of corruption and the abuse of his office that 60 Texas House Republicans lodged against him three years ago with a vote for his impeachment. He showed no concern in Houston on the price he could pay at the polls as a consequence of a divorce that he wife - State Senator Angela Paxton of McKinney - initiated in the midst of allegations about mistresses and a double identity.

Everytime Paxton mocks Talarico for failing to eat enough meat to be a Texas senator or expressing affection for children including those who are transgender, the Democrats throw the case of Waco attorney Adam Hoffman in his face. Paxton has continued to dodge questions on a plea bargain deal that his office offered in a move that effectively cut a life prison sentence for child sex abuse to 60 days in the county jail. When Paxton challenged Talarico last week to a Texas BBQ debate, the Democrat said that he'd debate the AG anytime anywhere as long as he'd explain his position in the Hoffman case.

Governor Greg Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick have stressed the need for a united front among Republicans as a cure-all for the general election. But the state convention demonstrated that unity could be an illusion as state party leaders, far-right lawmakers and activists chased off delegates who are Muslim while doing nothing to bring John Cornyn voters who've sworn to never vote for Paxton back into the fold.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll found that 7 percent of the Republicans in the sample planned to vote for Talarico for the U.S. Senate in November. Zero percent of the Democratic voters in the survey said they would support Paxton this fall instead. That alone could be the difference in winning or losing in the Senate competition here.

Crystal ball projections for the Texas Legislature and Congress coming in June ...