GOP on Track to Flip Two House Seats
after Boost from Huge Trump Texas Win

Capitol Inside
November 5, 2024

Down-ballot Republicans all but ran the table in the hottest Texas legislative races on Tuesday night with an apparent net gain of three seats thanks in large part to victories in districts that Democrats were attempting to defend on or near the border.

Riding Donald Trump coattails in a state where he crushed Kamala Harris in a comeback bid for president, Don McLaughlin of Uvalde and Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi flipped seats from blue to red in open races for the state House. Republican Adam Hinojosa of Corpus Christi unseated Democratic State Senator Morgan LaMantia of Brownsville in the only competitive race for the east wing in Austin on the general election ballot here.

Republican Robert Garza of Del Rio led Democratic State Rep. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass before the second-term incumbent surged from behind to win by more than 3 percentage points early Wednesday morning. Morales' heroics couldn't stop the bleeding for the Democrats, however, on a House battlefield where they suffered an apparent net loss of two seats.

GOP State Rep. Janie Lopez of San Benito beat Democrat Jonathan Gracia in battle in the Rio Grande Valley for a seat that was blue before she claimed it two years ago for the GOP on a new House map that was designed for Republicans.

Republicans successfully defended House seats that Democrats had high hopes of winning in districts in North Texas where State Reps. Angie Chen Button of Garland and Morgan Meyer of Dallas staved off challenges from Democrats Averie Bishop and Elizabeth Ginsberg respectively.

The Republicans emerged triumphant in 19 of 20 contests that were ranked in the Capitol Inside Races to Watch for the Texas House heading into the vote. Democratic State Rep. Mihaela Plesa of Dallas was up by 4 points on GOP challenger Steve Kinard of Richardson in the only one of the top 20 House races that the Democrats appeared to have a shot to win.

Trump had a 15-point lead over Harris here with 85 percent of the votes counted. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016 before his margin fell below 6 percent four years ago. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz was leading Democrat Colin Allred by 10 points with 84 percent of the unofficial count complete. Cruz won by less than 3 points in his last re-election race in 2018 when Democrats picked up a dozen Texas House seats.

After years of failed expectations in quests to turn Texas blue, the general election may have been the Democrats' worst setback in more than two decades of GOP rule in the nation's second largest state. Democrats underestimated Trump's strength in South Texas and other border areas where he'd fared substantially better in 2020 than Republicans at the top of tickets had in the past.

Barring last-minute changes in the Texas tally late Tuesday night or Wednesday, the House's tentative roster for 2025 will feature 89 Republicans and 61 Democrats.

The Democrats' only significant consolation at the state level could come if State Senator Morgan LaMantia of Brownsville survives a challenge from the GOP's Adam Hinojosa of Corpus Christi in Senate District 27 where the incumbent held a fragile lead of 2 points shortly before midnight. But Hinojosa was up on LaMantia by 1 point shortly after midnight in the only legislative race to still be in play at the finish line.

After making inroads in traditionally Democratic areas on the border in 2020, Trump turned Cameron County red in a historic first with close to 53 percent of the vote there. President Joe Biden received 56 percent of the Cameron vote in 2020 despite ground that Trump gained there that year.

Biden carried neighboring Hidalgo County with 58 percent of the vote four years ago. But Trump flipped Hidalgo County as well on Tuesday night - winning 50 percent there compared to 49 percent for Harris.

Trump won Tarrant County by 5 points after Biden secured a narrow victory there in 2020. Trump beat Harris by a single point in Williamson County on the northern edge of Austin where Biden won in 2020.

more to come...

# HD REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT LIB GR
1 118 John Lujan (I) Kristian Carranza No No
2 37 Janie Lopez (I) Jonathan Gracia No No
3 112 Angie C. Button (I) Averie Bishop No No
4 80 Don McLaughlin Cecilia Castellano No No
5 121 Marc LaHood Laurel Swift No No
6 108 Morgan Meyer (I) Elizabeth Ginsberg No No
7 74 Robert Garza Eddie Morales (I) No No
8 52 Caroline H. Davila (I) Jennie Birkholz No No
9 34 Denise Villalobos Solomon Ortiz Jr. No No
10 138 Lacey Hull (I) Stephanie Morales No No
11 63 Ben Bumgarner (I) Michelle Beckley No No
12 70 Steve Kinard Mihaela Plesa (I) No No
13 94 Tony Tinderholt (I) Denise Wilkerson No No
14 61 Keresa Richardson Tony Adams No No
15 54 Brad Buckley (I) Dawn Richardson No No
16 66 Matt Shaheen (I) David Carstens No No
17 97 John McQueeney Carlos Walker No No
18 65 Mitch Little Detrick Deburr No No
19 67 Jeff Leach (I) Makala Washington No No
20 122 Mark Dorazio (I) Kevin Geary No No
           
# SD REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT LIB GR
1 27 Adam Hinojosa Morgan LaMantia (I) No Yes
           
#   REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT LIB GR
1   Ted Cruz (I) Colin Allred Yes No
           
# CD REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT LIB GR
1 15 Monica De La Cruz (I) Michelle Vallejo Yes No
2 34 Mayra Flores Vicente Gonzalez (I) Yes No
3 23 Tony Gonzales (I) S. Limon No No
4 28 Jay Furman Henry Cuellar (I) Yes No

 

 

Copyright 2003-2024 Capitol Inside