GOP House Speaker Fights to Save Gavel
with Help for Allies Abbott Seeks to Ruin
Texas House and Senate Fundraising
Capitol Inside
February 17, 2024
Former Governor Rick Perry rallied to state House Speaker Dade Phelan's defense late last week in Beaumont where the ex-governor said voters would be out of their minds to throw out the first top Texas House leader they'd had as their representative after waiting almost 180 years.
The Phelan pep rally with Perry leading cheers had an anachronistic, old-school quality as the ex-Texas governor stressed the need for bipartisan leadership and claimed to be baffled by the internal warfare that's raging in unprecedented fashion with the Texas GOP.
But Perry failed to mention that current Governor Greg Abbott appears to pose a bigger threat to the Texas speaker than Donald Trump, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton combined as House District 21 challenger David Covey's marquee supporters for the March 5 primary election.
Abbott could set back if he doesn't destroy Phelan's re-election bid at home altogether if the governor is successful with his support for challengers in 10 primary fights for House seats including nine that GOP incumbents who opposed school choice last fall are seeking again in 2024.
While Paxton is backing three dozen House challengers in an impeachment revenge tour, the governor's endorsements appear to be substantially more valuable in 10 first-round fights in districts where he's pushing candidates who are trying to oust incumbents who turned thumbs down on school vouchers in special session in November.
Paxton deserves the most credit for a record number of House challengers taking on incumbent Republicans this year - having seized on his acquittal in a Senate impeachment trial in its immediate wake with a vow for retaliation at the polls for those who voted to give him the boot from the job to which he'd been elected three times in a row.
But Paxton hasn't done much since that time to help the candidates who garnered his endorsement. Abbott in dramatic contrast has devoted unprecedented amounts of energy, time and resources to his personal crusade to rid the Texas House of Republicans who've failed to bow to his demands on public subsidies for private schools.
Abbott added Liz Case Pickens of Tuscola to the challenger brigade on Friday when he issued a belated endorsement to her for a campaign for the House District 71 seat that State Rep. Stan Lambert of Abilene is attempting to defend. The governor has crisscrossed the Lone Star State for rallies in the past month for all of the House challengers on his individual slate in the districts that he's targeted.
Now Abbott is looping back with events set for Monday for House hopefuls Hillary Hickland in Belton, Joanne Shofner in Nacogdoches and Helen Kerwin of Glen Rose in Cleburne where State Rep. DeWayne Burns is a resident. Hickland and Shofner are taking aim at State Reps. Hugh Shine of Temple and Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches respectively in round one.
Abbott's vengeance quest has been a Spindletop for photo ops with the governor posing in countless shots with supporters in large crowds that he's attracted to pep rallies for challengers and pro-voucher incumbents alike in recent weeks.
The governor pumped about a quarter-million dollars into challenger campaigns in January for fights with House Republicans who he wants to eliminate and to replace with candidates who would all vote the same. But he spent nothing on House races in 2023 when Phelan contributed almost $300,000 to a dozen GOP representatives who teamed with Democrats to kill the Abbott voucher bill in the fourth and final special session of the year. Phelan gave 12 Republicans who opposed school choice almost $250,000 collectively last month alone - pushing his spending on anti-voucher colleagues beyond the half-million mark. The speaker has poured nearly $1.4 million into the defense of GOP representatives with a fairly equal number of pro-voucher lawmakers if not a few more on the list.
Phelan knows that his future in the dais could hinge on success or failure in the quest to save the same House Republicans who Abbott is targeting at the polls next month. Phelan must survive an all-out assault first in his home district where Covey is armed with endorsements from Donald Trump, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller and Paxton.
After twisting arms on Paxton's impeachment, the speaker appeared to let the House work its will on school vouchers even though he'd expressed support on the issue in the past. Phelan chose to follow the time-honored tradition of allowing and even encouraging House members to represent their districts with the votes they cast on education savings accounts.
Phelan's overriding objective has been to protect Republicans who sided with House leaders on impeachment as a gamble that backfired in spectacular fashion when it failed. Vouchers votes are irrelevant. If Phelan prevails in his re-election race, he could find it tough to keep the gavel if Abbott wipes out rural Republicans who are critical to the wide base of support that he's had in two terms as speaker.
Abbott has remained neutral in the Phelan-Covey fight while showing no concern that he could be killing the current speaker with the quench for blood for vouchers votes. But Abbott has pitched his support behind 28 House Republicans who stuck with him on school choice while campaigning in person for 10 challengers in bids to retire GOP representatives who did not.
Abbott's support is worth all the more as a result of the massive attention that he's reaped from antics at the Rio Grande with a military base for Texas National Guard members on 80 acres in the Eagle Pass area as the latest addition to a border security arsenal that the governor has amassed. There's no shortage of irony on the fact that the House Republicans who he's targeting marched in lockstep with the governor on border security in 2023 and previous years.
Abbott has endorsed 28 House Republicans and 10 GOP contenders in races that feature incumbents who spurned him on school choice. Abbott's challengers raised $2.8 million combined in the cycle's first 13 months with an average take of $280,000 each. The incumbents who the governor is backing rounded uo more than $8.8 million combined in the same span of time for an average topping $314,000 apiece.
Paxton and Abbott are on the same side in seven House districts where they're backing the same challengers in attempts to knock off incumbent House Republicans for separate reasons. Abbott and Paxton are enemies - however - in 25 state House races where the governor supports members who voted for the AG's impeachment.
Thirty-eight Republicans who Abbott has endorsed for House contests have raised about $11.5 million between them - an average in the $305,000 range. Thirty-six House challengers and four GOP incumbents who Paxton supports have reported average takes close to $134,000.
Activist Janis Holt of Silsbee is the only House challenger who's run the table up to now on endorsements from statewide leaders with Abbott, Paxton, Patrick, Miller and U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in her corner for a bid to oust State Rep. Ernest Bailes of Shepherd in round one.
GOP challengers Alan Schoolcraft of Universal City and Kerwin both have Abbott, Paxton, Patrick and Cruz on their sides in fights to unseat State Reps. John Kuempel of Seguin and Burns respectively. San Antonio lawyer Marc LaHood has scored endorsements from Abbott, Paxton, Cruz and Miller to round out the top five for statewide endorsements.
more to come ...All of the House Republicans in the 25 contests that are ranked as the most competitive on the Capitol Inside Texas Races to Watch for incumbents for the majority party in round one could be in trouble even though most if not all of them could still win.
While the upcoming election appears to be monumentally unpredictable, the crystal ball will go out the proverbial limb where mainstream media would never tread with a tentative forecast for 12 House Republican losses in round one or overtime. This is more of a wild guess than actual prediction. But that was the number that we tossed out last fall - and the competition has played out exactly as we envisioned here so we'll stick to it for now.
All 12 of the Democratic colleagues with first-round foes could emerge victorious at the polls next month or subsequent runoffs that are possibilities in three races in Houston, Dallas and Beaumont. State Rep. Shawn Thierry of Houston is fighting to survive against two primary opponents in the top-rated House race for the Democrats.
The prospects for incumbents being eaten by their own may be highest in House districts where the governor and the AG both are supporting challengers Hillary Hickland of Belton, Janis Holt of Silsbee, Helen Kerwin of Glen Rose, Marc LaHood of San Antonio, Brent Money of Greenville, Mike Olcott of Aledo and Alan Schoolcraft of Universal City.
Money is dueling new State Rep. Jill Dutton of Ben Wheeler in a rematch of a special session in January in a House District 2 race that's ranked second on the watch list in the closing weeks before the March vote. The Dutton-Money clash is rated below the opening round competition in House District 21 where the speaker is fighting to stave off David Covey of Orange as his chief threat in a fight that has overtime potential with Alicia Davis of Jasper also on the ballot there.
Five of the top 10 House races in the GOP primary pit incumbents who opposed Abbott's coveted school choice plan against challengers who the governor has endorsed and campaigned for at rallies in their home districts. State Reps. Glenn Rogers of Graford and DeWayne Burns of Cleburne are doing battle with Olcott and Kerwin respectively in contests that are ranked 3rd and 5th on the CI chart.
State Reps. Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches, Gary VanDeaver of New Boston and Steve Allison of San Antonio are trying to hold off Abbott-backed challengers in Joanne Shofner of Nacogdoches, Chris Spencer of Hughes Springs and LaHood in first-round fights that are rated 7th, 9th and 10th respectively.
Abbott also is supporting challengers Hickland, Holt and Schoolcraft in top 20 races in districts where they're attempting to oust GOP State Reps. Hugh Shine of Temple, Ernest Bailes of Shepherd and John Kuempel of Seguin in the first election of 2024.
Rogers, Burns, Shine, Bailes and Kuempel could find themselves in runoffs in races that have third candidates who haven't been competive but could force OT nonetheless. VanDeaver could have a runoff on the horizon as well in one of 25 GOP primary fights in districts where Abbott and Paxton are enemies while the two march arm-in-arm in others.
Republican State Reps. Frederick Frazier of McKinney, Kronda Thimesch of Lewisville and Lynn Stucky of Sanger all have Abbott in their corner for primary fights with opponents who Paxton is backing in races that are ranked among the top 10 less than a month before the initial vote.
more to come ... |
