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Eyes of the Nation on Crockett vs. Talarico
as Abbott Slate Top Subplot on Eve of Vote
Capitol Inside
March 2, 2026
The wildly unpredictable battle between Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico for the U.S. Senate nomination is crowning the first-round Texas fight card on the eve of a primary election that has several key races up in the air as the candidates ramble toward the finish line on Tuesday.
The Republicans appear to have a runoff in store at the top of the Texas ballot with Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slight edge over veteran U.S. Senator John Cornyn in recent weeks. But the Democratic competition for the Senate seat probably will be decided on Tuesday when both of the major contenders appear to have an even chance to win.
Emerson College released the final poll on the U.S. Senate contest in Texas on Sunday with Talarico and Paxton leading Crockett and Cornyn by 5 points and 4 points respectively. But Talarico cleared the halfway mark in polling on the race for the first time in the Emerson survey with support from 52 percent of the likely Democratic voters who were gauged.
The Texas primary contests in 2026 have been the most entertaining, expensive and competitive in the Lone Star State in two dozen years of GOP rule. One of the most intriguing plot lines centers on Governor Greg Abbott and the slate of candidates he's backing in down-ballot fights for statewide, congressional and legislative offices.
Abbott has invested record sums of political capital and cash in Comptroller Kelly Hancock and challenger Nate Sheets in a bid to unseat Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller at the ballot box this week. Hancock and Sheets accompanied the governor on his Let's Roll voter turnout tour across the state in the past week or two.
Abbott appeared undaunted by last-minute endorsements that President Donald Trump dished out to Don Huffines for the comptroller's race and Miller for a re-election race after an appearance at a rally in Corpus Christi on Friday. Abbott has seen both Miller and Huffines as major political enemies.
Hancock is competing against Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick for a spot in a runoff with Huffines, who's had a significant lead in recent polls and has a shot to win the nomination outright on Tuesday with a big boost from the Trump endorsement after the early voting period had ended.
Miller had a 30-point lead on Sheets in a poll on the agriculture commissioner race a month ago. But people close to the race say Sheets appeared to fare better in the early vote than expected - and that Miller might have to win by significant amount on election day to put the challenge to rest. Trump gave the state farm boss the most potent weapon that a Texas Republican can have for the primary this year with the belated endorsement that gushed with praise about the incumbent.
Like the thriller that the race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate has turned out to be, the first-round fight for agriculture commissioner and the cast for overtime in the comptroller's contest could all be up in the air on the day before the primary election.
A pair of Texas Republicans - U.S. Reps. Dan Crenshaw of Houston and Tony Gonzales of San Antonio - are fighting for political lives in round one as incumbents who appear to be in trouble for completely different reasons. Crenshaw faces State Rep. Steve Toth of Conroe on the Tuesday ballot in Congressional District 2, where Trump endorsed the challenger last week.
Gonzales has been accused in the past month of having an inappropriate relationship with a member of his staff before she burned to death last year after lighting herself on fire in a move that was ruled as a suicide. Trump had endorsed Gonzales in December. But Gonzales' name did not appear late last week on an updated list of candidates the president has endorsed in Texas for the primary election.
Brandon Herrera, who lost to Gonzales in a runoff that was close in 2024, has a chance to eliminate the embattled lawmaker from the Congressional District 23 competition at the polls on Tuesday.
Abbott is supporting Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright in a primary fight for one of three seats on the panel that regulates oil and gas in Texas. But the far right has rallied behind Bo French - the former Tarrant County Republican Party chairman - in a bid for a spot in a runoff for the RRC.
State Rep. Briscoe Cain of Deer Park has touted an endorsement from the governor in a bid for the Congressional District 9 seat that had been controlled by Democrats until the Republicans in Austin redesigned it for a GOP candidate to win on a new U.S. House map. But Cain, who'd been perceived as the frontrunner in CD 9, appears to be scrambling now to force primary foe Alex Mealer into a runoff as the favorite in the race after scoring an endorsement from the president last month.
Several Republican lawmakers could be in peril in the primary election as well with State Reps. Stan Kitzman of Pattison, Angelia Orr of Itasca, Cecil Bell Jr. of Magnolia and Terri Leo-Wilson of Galveston facing tough tests at the polls on Tuesday. The hottest Texas Senate race on Tuesday's ballot pits GOP State Rep. Trent Ashby of Lufkin against Rhonda Ward of Nacogdoches in an open East Texas battle.
The governor is backing Republicans in several open Texas House races including three that could still be up in the air on the eve of the primary vote in districts where Abbott is backing Fred Tate of Colleyville, Chris Spencer of Texarkana and Scott Bowen of Houston. Keller Mayor Armin Mizani and Tate are competing in round one for the House District 98 seat in the northeast corner of Tarrant County. Spencer faces Josh Bray of Paris in the GOP primary election Tuesday in House District 1 while Bowen and Pearland's Bob Mitchell are dueling for the party's nomination in House District 129.
But the eyes of the nation will be on the U.S. Senate race in Texas on Tuesday with a runoff looking likely with Paxton and Cornyn and the winner of the Democratic nomination too close to call with any real degree of confidence.
Crockett led Talarico by an average of 3.5 points in four polls conducted on the fight among the Democrats for Cornyn's Senate seat in the month of February. But Talarico was ahead by 1.5 points in the Real Clear Polling average on the day before the vote. Paxton had a 3.6 point lead on Cornyn going into the election based on the RCP polling average for the Republicans in the Texas Senate race.
more to come ...
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