Texas Dems in Position for Ride on Wave
with House Hopeful Count at All-Time High

DLCC Sets Sights on Texas House - Fall Rankings

Capitol Inside
December 15, 2025

A record number of Democrats are competing in 2026 for seats the GOP controls in the Texas House amid visions of a tsunami in the making in a league with a blue wave that swept a dozen challengers for the minority party to victory in 2018 in districts Republicans were attempting to defend and expected to win.

Democrats filed to run for 82 Texas House seats that Republicans hold now in a chamber where there are 88 representatives for the GOP and 62 Democratic members. Democrats are vying as challengers in 93 percent of the districts that are Republican on the current House roster. The Republicans - in contrast - fielded candidates in 63 percent of the House races for seats that Democrats hold now with contenders in 39 districts that currently are blue.

Both sides have substantially more candidates gunning for opposing party seats in the Texas Capitol's west wing than they did in 2024 when 63 Democrats ran in districts where Republicans were on the defensive and the GOP fielded challengers in 28 races for House seats that were blue. But the Republicans came out ahead when rookie State Reps. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi and Don McLaughlin of Uvalde flipped a pair of South Texas seats that Democrats held at the time.

The winds are clearly blowing in the Democrats' favor in the closing weeks of President Donald Trump's first year back in office. Trump's sinking approval marks - fueled in significant part by discontent with the economy has fueled increasing angst among GOP partisans who remember the down-ballot wreckage from the midterm elections here during his first stint in the White House. The climate now appears far more threatening to the party in power than it did a year before the general election in 2018 when Democrats flipped a dozen Texas House districts, two state Senate seats and two in the delegation to Congress.

The Democrats could take the Texas House back with a net gain of 14 seats next fall. While the election landscape could change significantly in the next 11 months, Democrats see 2026 as a field of enormous opportunity that could rival 2018 in terms of vulnerability for Republicans who've wrapped themselves in Trump.

But 30 House Republicans have a more pressing concern than Democrats waiting in the wings with challengers taking aim at them in the primary election on March 3. A dozen incumbent Democrats are facing first-round opposition in re-election bids next year. Four Houston Democrats - State Reps. Harold Dutton, Mary Ann Perez, Charlene Ward Johnson and Hubert Vo - will be trying to avoid runoff confrontations with two primary challengers in each of the districts they represent. Democratic State Reps. Venton Jones of Dallas and Barbara Gervin Hawkins of San Antonio are both facing a pair of primary challengers in re-election bids.

Four of the representatives in the ten hottest Republican primary fights on the Capitol Inside Texas Races to Watch card for March - State Reps. Marc LaHood of San Antonio, Janie Lopez of San Benito, Lacey Hull of Houston and Angie Chen Button of Garland - will have Democrats gunning for them in races that could swing either way next fall. Button faces three challengers in round one while Hull has two first-round foes gunning for the seat she holds in the lower chamber.

GOP State Reps. Cole Hefner of Mount Pleasant, Candy Noble of Lucas, Jared Patterson of Frisco and Brian Harrison of Midlothian drew two primary foes for the March vote as well.

Governor Greg Abbott and GOP lawmakers in Austin made the mistake of remaking a congressional voting map for the sake of picking up five seats in Texas based on the support that Trump received at the polls here last year when his popularity was peaking. The results of the U.S. Senate race below the White House competition in 2024 are a much more credible gauge of what to expect next year.

Democrats would pick up 10 House seats if they successfully defended all of their current districts and flipped all of those where Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred in the U.S. Senate battle here last fall. Hull, Button, Lopez and LaHood would all lose under if such a scenario materialized. Villalobos - the most endangered House Republican on paper - will face off with Democrat Stephanie Guerrero Saenz of Corpus Christi in the 2026 general election in House District 34 where both are unopposed on the primary ballots. Allred beat Cruz by 5.4 percentage points in HD 34 last year.

The Democratic Party would record a net gain of two House seats if its nominees won in every district that Allred carried while Republicans prevailed in fights for all of those where Cruz prevailed. The incumbent solon defeated Allred by 5 points in House District 74 where Democratic Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass is seeking a new term. Allred won all of the other districts that are Democratic on the current map.

A pair of Republicans from Del Rio - Robert Garza and John McLeon - are dueling in round one for the right to challenge Morales next fall. Morales beat Garza in the general election last year by 3 points when Trump's popularity here was at an all-time high. McLeon brings a novel twist to the HD 74 race as a member of the Texas National Guard - based on his filing application.

Republicans had visions a year ago of a purge of Democratic House members in South Texas and border districts when voters went to the polls in 2026. But Democrats appear to be in position at this point - and barring a rebound in the voters' feelings about Trump's leadership and the economy - to protect all of their current House seats while flipping six to 10 with a potential ceiling that's even higher at the rate things have been going in recent months.

more to come ...