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Jasmine Crockett Could Spell Doom
for Colin Allred with 2026 Senate Run
Capitol Inside
October 23, 2025
Congressional Democrat Jasmine Crockett could expect to run as the favorite for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate battle in Texas in 2026 if she enters the ring in the wake of polling that shows her with a better shot of winning than either of the party's current contenders for the seat.
A second-term U.S. representative from Dallas, Crockett revealed on Wednesday that she's "strongly considering" a Senate bid as a consequence of substantial changes that Republicans in the Texas Legislature made to her current district in a showdown on congressional redistricting during the summer.
Crockett's emergence in the Senate competition would appear to hurt fellow Dallas resident Colin Allred the most in a comeback campaign as the Democrats' nominee against U.S. Senator Ted Cruz a year ago. Allred is a former congressional member who played in the National Football League. Allred and Crockett are both Black.
Crockett could find State Rep. James Talarico of Austin as the biggest obstacle in a Democratic primary fight for the chance to challenge the winner of the GOP primary election in a field that features U.S. Senator John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston as the leading choices.
But Talarico, who's white, would be running as the underdog in a potential primary runoff based on the most recent polls on the U.S. Senate scramble here next year.
Crockett landed in the district that U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth currently represents on the map that emerged from a special session in August as the first domino to fall in a mid-decade redistricting scheme that President Donald Trump has been pushing. Veasey was paired with Republican U.S. Rep. Roger Williams of Weatherford in the plan in a district where Trump won more than two-thirds of the vote last fall.
Congressional District 30, where Crockett has been the representative since the start of 2023, is open on the new map. With no residency requirements for federal contests, Crockett could seek re-election in CD 30 and expect to win again easily. That would clear the way for Veasey to run in Congressional District 33, his current turf.
Crockett had appeared to have ruled out a Senate race until she changed her tune in an interview on Sirius XM radio on Wednesday.
Crockett suggested that the Republicans would be reaping what they've sown if she claimed the U.S. Senate seat as a spinoff of the congressional remap effort that Trump ordered the Republicans in Austin to undertake. "The other option is every other day there's a poll that comes out that makes it clear that I can win the primary for the U.S. Senate race in Texas," Crockett acknowledged. "And I am looking - because if you want to take my seat of 766,000 away - I feel like there has to be some karma in that to where I take your seat that is for 30 million away."
While it would be premature to pronounce Crockett as the projected victor in a primary battle for Senate, she's had a significant lead over both Allred and Talarico in the two most recent surveys on the competition here.
A poll that the University of Houston conducted with Texas Southern University found Crockett with support from 31 percent of the registered Democratic voters in the sample while Talarico and Beto O'Rourke were tied with 25 percent apiece. Allred was a distant fourth with 13 percent.
The UH poll showed Crockett losing to Cornyn by 6 points in a hypothetical general election pairing while Hunt was leading her by 5. But Crockett was running neck-and-neck with Paxton in the UH-TSU survey with the Republican AG up by 2 points - an outcome within the margin or error.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll in August found O'Rourke up on Crockett by a single point with 27 percent and 26 percent respectively. Allred and Talarico were way behind with 13 percent and 7 percent respectively.
O'Rourke led Crockett by 3 points in a University of Texas at Tyler survey in September in a question on the Senate primary that did not include Talarico as an option. O'Rourke had support from 31 percent in the UT-Tyler poll while Crockett had 29 percent compared to 25 percent for Allred.
more to come ...
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