O'Rourke in Statistical Tie with Abbott
in Texas Lyceum Survey on Gov Race

Capitol Inside
April 1, 2022

A new Texas Lyceum poll showed Governor Greg Abbott and Democrat Beto O'Rourke running neck and neck on Friday in the race for the state's top job on the general election ballot in 2022.

The poll that the group of business and professional interests conducted last month found Abbott with 42 percent compared to 40 percent for O'Rourke. The Texas Lyceum survey has an overall margin of error of 2.83 percent. That makes the competition between the Republican incumbent and the Democratic challenger a statistical tie in the poll that was conducted from March 11 to March 20 with telephone calls to 1,000 voters.

Abbott had led O'Rourke by 8 percentage points on average in five previous polls on the Texas race in January and February. A Rice University survey that Abbott up by 1 point in October had been the only significant outlier in the polling on the governor's battle that got under way here last summer.

Abbott posted double-digit leads over the Democratic challenger in three of the six most recent polls on the marquee race in Texas this year. The Texas Lyceum findings knocked the average Abbott polling lead down to 7 percent points in a half dozen surveys that were taken in the first quarter of 2022.

Texas voters were evenly split on the job that the second-term governor has been doing based on the TL poll results. Abbott had an approval rate of 47 percent in the Texas Lyceum survey. Forty-seven percent turned thumbs down on him in the poll - the first to be taken here since the primary election on March 1.

Abbott has been embroiled in controversies that have escalated in the past month. The governor's Operation Lone Star mission at the border has been plagued by an assortment of problems since he launched it in March 2021. Abbott says that he currently has 10,000 Texas National Guard troops deployed to the Rio Grande to assist the Department of Public Safety in the apprehension of migrants including some who've been busted for drugs and human trafficking.

The governor could be losing support as a consequence of his handling of a child sex abuse and trafficking scandal that's erupted at a victims treatment facility that the state funds in Bastrop. Abbott ordered the DPS to investigation allegations at the Refuge on March 11. DPS Col. Steve McCraw told Abbott five days later that a probe found no evidence of abuse or trafficking at the shelter near Austin.

U.S. District Judge Janis Jack raised serious questions about the credibility of the state police investigation in a hearing this week in connection with an ongoing class-action lawsuit against the long-troubled Texas foster care system. Jack has asked for a simultaneous federal investigation amid suspicions on the DPS probe as a possible cover-up.

Abbott had the Texas Education Agency assemble a task force on March 10 to look into a mounting teacher shortage crisis in the state's public schools. The special study had 26 school administrators and only two teachers on the original roster. The TEA added two dozen more teachers to the task force six days later amid an uproar on the initial snubbing.

more to come ...