Texas Map with Five Seat GOP Gain Based
on Trump Vote Before Plunge in Popularity
Capitol Inside
August 1, 2025
Texas Republicans are gambling that President Donald Trump's turns his sinking approval ratings around in the next 15 months with a congressional redistricting plan that's based on 2024 election data that's obsolete and potentially worthless if he fails to bounce back.
The U.S. House map that Texas House leaders proposed this week with the goal of five new GOP seats may be good for no more than two or three at best barring a dramatic rebound for a president whose popularity is at an all-time low with approval marks that have plunged 10 points since January.
The map that State Rep. Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi submitted for consideration in special session in House Bill 4 is designed to give the GOP five more seats in a U.S. House delegation that currently contains 25 Republicans and 13 Democrats. The plan features five seats that Democrats currently control in districts that Trump won by 10 percentage points in November.
Two of the targeted seats - Congressional Districts 9 and 32 - appear to be locks on paper for the Republicans in areas that Trump carried by at least 15 points last year. But that's only true if Trump has bottomed out in the polls on his job performance and can only go up.
But that's not the case by any stretch with Congressional Districts 28, 34 and 35 where Trump won by a mere 10 points last year. All three of those districts could be highly competitive with Democrats has potential favorites if the president remains as unpopular in 2026 as he is now.
Trump is underwater in the polls on every major issue including the economy and immigration. His close association with Jeffrey Epstein has the MAGA base upset and confused as the president weighs a pardon for a woman who allegedly recruited women for him. Trump is being dogged as well by news reports on an increasing decline in his mental capabilities based on his words and behavior.
Governor Greg Abbott and his GOP allies in Austin may think that the proposed map in HB 4 will make them immune from the president's wrath as long as it's based on Trump's showing at the polls last fall. But the president will see the Texas redistricting effort as a complete and total failure if the Republicans don't pick up five U.S. House seats here next year.
The Select Congressional Redistricting Committee in the House focused for the first time on the proposed map at a hearing on Friday at the Capitol in Austin. Almost all of the witnesses at several previous hearings were fiercely opposed to the remap effort in Texas. The Republicans acted as though they were listening at the hearings but didn't let it affect their plans based on the new map.
The Republicans have 20 more days in the summer session to try to tailor the Texas congressional map to Trump's current strength with the electorate. But five seats may be an impossible dream if his approval ratings don't improve dramatically before the general election more than a year from now. Two to three more seats in the lower house of Congress from Texas might be about the best for which they can hope given the state of the president's popularity.
There's no guarantee that a map will pass in the current special session that began on July 21. A growing number of House Democrats are ready to walk out on the session to block a vote on the redistricting proposal. U.S. House Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York huddled with Texas Democrats at the statehouse here this week.
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced on Thursday that he wants to have a special election there to counter the Texas Republican power grab. New York Democrats are weighing a redistricting effort as well to offset whatever gains the GOP manages to make in Texas. The Trump-fueled effort in Texas could be the springboard that Democrats need to reclaim control of the U.S. House.
Trump's approval marks plunged from 47 percent to 37 percent in Gallup polls since the start of his second term. That's the same as his worst showing in his first term in the White House.
A YouGov poll for The Economist showed on Thursday that Trump was more unpopular with white voters than he'd ever been. A Daily Mail survey in July found Democrat Barack Obama beating Trump by double-digits in a hypothetical pairing. Obama had a 59 percent favorability rating compared to 44 percent for Trump. Neither Trump or Obama would be eligible to run for the presidency in 2028 after serving two terms.
more to come ...
| 
