Paxton Says He Could Beat Cornyn
Without Trump Plug in Senate Battle
Capitol Inside
March 18, 2025
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton predicted on Monday that he could emerge victorious in a potential bid to unseat U.S. Senator John Cornyn if could raise $20 million for the fight that would have restrictions on donations that neither encountered at the state level.
In his most extensive comments yet on a possible Senate campaign in 2026, Paxton gave the impression in an interview that he's still testing the waters for a clash with Cornyn that's widely viewed inside the statehouse beltway in Austin as a foregone conclusion at some point.
But the three-time elected AG gave potential donors a target for his engagement if they really want him to run in the discussion that he had with the Washington D.C. site Punchbowl News. Paxton cited Cornyn's relatively low approval ratings with GOP primary voters along with an unusually high percentage of Republicans who have no opinion of the senior Texas senator who's held the job for more than 22 years.
“I think I can win if I have $20 million,” Paxton said. “I’ve run these primaries in Texas before. I honestly don’t see how (Cornyn) overcomes his numbers.”
But Paxton indicated that he was still undecided about the Senate race and would continue to explore it at his own pace. “I don’t know if I’m running for sure," the state lawyer said. "I’m looking at it. Probably in the next few months I’ll be talking to people around the state.”
Paxton's deliberate approach with the teasing of trial balloons has prompted some supporters to worry that he could be giving Cornyn an opportunity to round up major contributors before they have the AG as a definite reason to keep their powder dry. Cornyn sought to put that early advantage on display with the host list that he touted on an invitation for a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Houston on Monday night.
The sponsors of the event for the Cornyn victory committee included some major longtime contributors for Republicans in Texas with names like John Nau, Hushang Ansary, Ned Holmes, Mark Lanier, Walt Mischer, Nancy Kinder and husband Rich Kinder. There's no way to know if the threat of Paxton looming had an impact on the Cornyn fundraiser take.
But Cornyn would have the clear early edge in the money chase for a possible showdown with Cornyn in the GOP primary election with a campaign account that had over $4 million on hand at the end of December. Paxton in contrast would be having to essentially start from scratch with the inability to transfer cash that he's raised to run for office at the state level to a federal account.
Paxton probably could expect several donors to get him within reach of the threshold that he appeared to dangle as bait for early support. But Paxton said an endorsement from President Donald Trump would "put the nail in the coffin" for Cornyn.
The attorney general acknowledged that the president's support would be no guarantee in light of Cornyn's attempts to cozy up to Trump with his words and actions. But Paxton suggested he would beat the incumbent even if he did not have Trump in his official corner. Paxton said Cornyn has been posturing for support on the right.
“After 23 years he’s finally got a real opponent — potential opponent — he’s gonna do that, right?" Paxton said. "I mean, no one’s gonna be surprised by that. Voters are not stupid. Like suddenly he veers to the right? We’re less than a year from the primary now. And as soon as it’s over… he goes back to being John Cornyn.”
Paxton received a boost in national name recognition that money couldn't buy when the Texas House voted to impeach him at the end of the regular session in 2023. The move made Paxton a rock star on the far right after his acquittal by the state Senate later that year. Paxton has been close to Trump since he tried to overturn the 2020 election on his behalf at the U.S. Supreme Court.
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