|
GOP RUNOFF |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
CORNYN |
PAXTON |
LEADER |
|
3/19-23 |
600 LV |
42% |
47% |
Paxton +5 |
|
3/21-22 |
1,217 LV |
41% |
49% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/17-19 |
807 LV |
39% |
42% |
Paxton +3 |
|
3/12-17 |
900 LV |
37% |
53% |
Paxton +16 |
|
3/07-08 |
781 LV |
41% |
49% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/05-06 |
565 LV |
42% |
45% |
Paxton +3 |
|
Dem PAC Poll Finds Trump Endorsement
Dramatically Overrated in Texas Runoff
Capitol Inside
March 31, 2026
A poll that was released on Tuesday found that President Donald Trump's endorsement would be worth no more than a single percentage point in an epic clash between U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton in a runoff in the race that's crowning the Texas ballot this year.
Conducted by the Democratic consulting firm GQR for the Senate Majority PAC, the new Texas survey showed Paxton leading the longtime incumbent by 5 points with support from 47 percent of 600 likely Republican voters in the sample. Cornyn was the choice of 42 percent of the GOP voters who participated in the poll that was taken over a four-day span that ended March 23.
Paxton led Cornyn by 5.5 points on average in four previous polls on the overtime bout when a survey by the firm that represents Democratic nominee James Talarico isn't factored into the equation as a major outlier that showed the state AG ahead by 16 points two weeks ago.
But the new poll by the Democratic shop in Washington D.C. found Trump's potential endorsement in the Texas Senate fight to be much less valuable than Republicans and Democrats alike have envisioned. GQR sought to gauge the impact that a formal plug for Cornyn from the president would have on the runoff. The poll showed that the incumbent would only gain 1 point with Trump's endorsement while Paxton's support would hold steady at 47 percent.
The poll for the Senate Majority PAC found that the attorney general would get a boost of one percentage point if Trump stayed on the sidelines after promising to take sides on the day after the March 3 primary election when Cornyn led Paxton by slightly more than 1 percent with 42 percent of the vote.
According to a memo from GQR, Paxton was up on Cornyn 47 percent to 43 percent if the incumbent had the president in his corner for round two. Paxton picks up a point at Cornyn's expense if neither contender gets the Trump endorsement for OT. In the scenario without Trump on either side, Paxton led Cornyn 48 percent to 42 percent in the new survey.
Kalshi - the world's largest prediction market - gave Paxton a 69 percent chance for a win in the runoff compared to 27 percent for Cornyn.
Trump appeared poised to endorse Cornyn when he promised to make an endorsement in the Texas Senate runoff on the day after the primary vote. Trump said he would demand that the candidate he did not support drop out of the contest immediately. But the president balked in the face of angry backlash from MAGA loyalists who've despised Cornyn for years. When Trump hesitated, Paxton announced that he would not quit the race if Cornyn won the president endorsement sweepstakes instead.
Trump has been mum for the past couple of weeks on the endorsement that he teased with maximum fanfare before the Texas AG stood up to him a rare show of defiance for an elected official in today's GOP. The prediction here has been that Trump would remain neutral in the Texas runoff in the Senate race or would throw his support behind Paxton if he's convinced he's going to win. Paxton met with the president late last week at his home at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.
A Trump endorsement could be a game-changer if Cornyn and Paxton are neck-and-neck at the finish line based on the new polling. But it will have been much ado of nothing if the GQR numbers are on the mark.
The Democratic firm's poll found Cornyn hurt most by his position on gun rights after helping forge a bipartisan compromise on legislation in the upper house of Congress several years ago. But Cornyn's former support for amnesty for migrants and Senate confirmations for Joe Biden appointees have worked against him in the primary and runoff as well according to the new poll.
more to come ...
| 
