Poll Shows Democrat in Position to Win
One of 4 Cornyn Voters if AG Advances
Capitol Inside
April 18, 2026
The latest poil on the U.S. Senate race in Texas found that 24 percent of the Republicans who support incumbent John Cornyn would vote for Democrat James Talarico if Attorney General Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee after winning a primary runoff election next month.
That was the worst piece of news for Republicans in the survey that Texas Public Opinion Research released on Friday with Paxton the heavy betting favorite in an overtime clash that incumbent John Cornyn would have little if any chance to win without an endorsement from President Donald Trump before the vote on May 26.
The TPOR poll of 1,225 likely GOP runoff voters
found Paxton leading Cornyn with 48 percent support to 40 percent for the veteran lawmaker who he's attempting to oust. But the findings are in line with Cornyn's assertions that the Republicans can't win in November if Paxton knocks him out.
Texas Public Opinion Research is directed by a former Texas Democratic Party officer and candidate who's a newcomer on the political polling scene here. Democrats are rooting for the attorney general in the runoff for the same reason that Cornyn says GOP runoff voters should back him. The TPOR poll found that nearly one out of every four Cornyn supporters would break ranks and back Talarico in the general election if the AG prevails at the OT polls in five weeks.
Ten percent of Republicans who favor Paxton - in contrast - said they'd cast their ballots for the Austin state representative who's the Democratic nominee if Cornyn emerged victorious at the polls this spring. That suggests that Talarico could be getting record support from across the aisle regardless of who the Republican nominee for the Senate seat in Texas turns out to be.
The TPOR poll found that Paxton's lead would be slashed to a single point if Trump came off the fence and dished a complete and total endorsement to the incumbent in the Senate race here. Paxton led Cornyn 44 percent to 43 percent in the scenario that has the president dishing a formal plug to the incumbent who Senate Republican leaders and the business establishment want to win.
But the state's senior senator, who's held the seat for two dozen years, would be on life support at best if Trump endorsed the Texas attorney general before the runoff election - according to the poll. Paxton's lead mushroomed to 26 points with an endorsement from the president. Paxton was up on Cornyn 58 percent to 32 percent in the event of a Trump official pitch in the TPOR survey.
But the Texas Public Opinion Research poll on April 6 and 7 found no significant movement for either side for the Senate runoff since the firm's last poll on the contest several days after the March 3 primary election. Paxton was up on Cornyn by 8 points in the TPOR poll a month ago as well with 49 percent compared to 41 percent for the incumbent.
Two other polls on the Senate fight in Texas this month found Cornyn ahead of Paxton by 1 point. Both were conducted by groups that favor the incumbent. Paxton is up by 4.5 points on Cornyn in the average of 10 polls that have been conducted on the GOP fight since the first vote.
Cornyn led a field with eight candidates with 42 percent of the primary vote last month. Paxton advanced to overtime with 40.5 percent. After running as the underdog, Talarico beat U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas by more than 6 points in round one with more than 52 percent of the vote.
Talarico has been on fire while the Republicans cut each other up on a daily basis - having surpassed the $10 million mark in fundrasing since the primary election on March 3. Talarico posted the all-time largest haul for a Senate candidate in any state in the first three months of an election year after rounding up $27 million for his campaign during that time span.
The Republicans are favored to keep the Texas Senate seat in the consensus view of the nation's top political handicappers. But the Senate race was moved this week from Leans GOP to Toss Up in the Capitol Inside rankings for the general election in 2026. The shift was a direct function of Trump's erratic behavior and tanking approval rates - not the Senate race in Texas.
more to come ...
|
GOP RUNOFF |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
CORNYN |
PAXTON |
LEADER |
|
4/11-14 |
1,143 LV |
44% |
43% |
Cornyn +1 |
|
4/06-07 |
1,225 LV |
40% |
48% |
Paxton +8 |
|
4/06-09 |
800 LV |
44% |
43% |
Cornyn +1 |
|
3/19-23 |
600 LV |
42% |
47% |
Paxton +5 |
|
3/21-23 |
1,218 LV |
41% |
47% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/17-19 |
807 LV |
39% |
42% |
Paxton +3 |
|
3/12-17 |
900 LV |
37% |
53% |
Paxton +16 |
|
3/09-12 |
800 LV |
45% |
45% |
Even |
|
3/07-08 |
781 LV |
41% |
49% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/05-06 |
565 LV |
42% |
45% |
Paxton +3 |
Average |
|
|
|
|
Paxton +4.7 |
|
| 
