SLF Poll Finds Silver Lining for Cornyn
with Paxton Trailing Potential Dem Foe
Capitol Inside
May 15, 2025
A super PAC that's backing U.S. Senator John Cornyn for re-election is gambling on some reverse psychology to give him a boost with the leaking of a new poll that shows getting blown out by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary election next year.
The Senate Leadership Fund survey found Paxton leading the state's senior Senate member by 16 points with 56 percent support from GOP voters here in a hypothetical primary duel here next year.
The SLF poll is the third Texas poll in a row to find Paxton with a double-digit advantage over Cornyn since the state lawyer emerged as a challenger earlier this year.
But the Senate Leadership Fund poll that the Washington D.C. publication Punchbowl News made public on Monday wasn't designed to make it appear like Cornyn was closing the gap after President Donald Trump's chief campaign pollster found the Texas AG crushing Cornyn by 25 points in a survey that Paxton touted when he entered the competition for the federal post.
While the SLF showed Paxton led Cornyn 56 percent to 40 percent in the new poll, the group found a silver lining for the incumbent's supporters with Democrat Colin Allred up by 1 point on the attorney general in a potential pairing on the Texas general election ballot in 2026.
Cornyn had a 6-point lead in a hypothetical clash with Allred - a former professional football player who was serving in the U.S. House when he lost a bid to unseat U.S. Senator Ted Cruz last year. Republican U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston led Allred by 4 points as a potential contender in the Senate contest here next year.
Allred has expressed an interest in a possible comeback bid for the upper house of Congress in 2026. U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro of San Antonio and former congressional member Beto O\'Rourke have been mentioned as possible U.S. Senate candidates here next year as well.
The Democrats haven't held a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen stepped down to serve as the treasury secretary in Bill Clinton's cabinet in 1993. Democrats haven't won statewide in the Lone Star State since 1994. The Democratic Party appeared to be back at rock bottom again here when Trump captured 56 percent of the Texas vote in November - four points more than he'd claimed here in both 2016 and 2020.
But Paxton would give the GOP a U.S. Senate nominee with considerable baggage three years year after the Texas House voted to impeach on corruption charges that 60 Republican representatives supported. The Texas Senate acquitted Paxton an all counts in the fall of 2023. Paxton had been one of the current president's top Texas allies since the AG's failed attempt to overturn Trump's loss at the polls in 2020 at the U.S. Supreme Court. But the historic impeachment ordeal elevated the attorney general to superstar status among conservatives in Texas and other red states.
Trump has become a Cornyn fan as well in recent years - and the president has remained on the sidelines in the U.S. Senate fight in Texas up to now as a result. A Trump endorsement may not be as valuable for down-ballot candidates as it's been in the past here as a consequence of controversial recent moves that have put the nation's economy at risk, raised questions about his competence and caused his approval ratings to fall.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll in March found Paxton with 38 percent support among GOP voters compared to 27 percent for Cornyn.
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates - the lead polling firm for Trump in 2024 - showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 25 points with 53 percent support among Republican voters in a survey that it released in early February.
more to come ...
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