First Post-Trump Endorsement Poll Finds
Paxton on Brink of Crushing Cornyn in OT
Texas Primary Runoff Candidates
Capitol Inside
May 21, 2026
A new poll shows Texas Republican Ken Paxton on the verge ousting longtime U.S. Senator John Cornyn in a blowout in the U.S. Senate primary runoff election on Tuesday after scoring an endorsement from President Donald Trump earlier this week.
After holding a slight edge in polling on a overtime fight that Cornyn still appeared to have a chance to win, Paxton led the veteran lawmaker by a jaw-dropping 21 points in a survey that SoCal Strategies taken after Trump intervened in the Texas fight.
The poll was conducted over the course of the past two days in the wake of Trump's pitch for Paxton on Tuesday. Paxton was favored by almost 57 percent of 700 likely GOP runoff voters compared to 35 percent that plan to support Cornyn in the runoff despite the fact that the president wants Republicans here to give him the boot next week.
Paxton had an advantage of 5 points on average in 14 polls on the Texas Senate runoff before Trump rallied behind his campaign with an endorsement that he'd dangled in front of Cornyn for the past three months. The state lawyer led Cornyn in every age category in the SoCal Strategies survey with the exception of voters age 30 to 44.
Paxton led the incumbent by 74 points among voters who are 29 or younger. The challenger was ahead of Cornyn by 32 percentage points among voters between the ages of 45 and 64 while his lead fell to 18 points among those over 55 years of age.
A poll that SoCal Strategies released 24 hours before Tuesday's Republican primary election in Kentucky found U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie trailing the Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein by 7 percentage points. Gallrein won by 10 points at the polls the following day. The firm that bills itself as nonpartisan uses a sophisticated online polling system that relies on Pollfish panels and Qualtrics technology.
Trump's endorsement turned a competitive Texas Senate runoff into an expecte slam dunk for the attorney general who the chamber's GOP leaders in Washington D.C. fear will lose to Democrat James Talarico in the general election. Democrats saw the Trump plug for Paxton as a gift that propelled Talarico into the favorite's role for the general election in November.
Paxton led by nearly 8 percentage points on average in polls that weren't taken for a super PAC backing Cornyn. The incumbent was up by 1 point in three of those and tied with Paxton in a fourth. Paxton was in front of Cornyn 16 points in a poll taken a week after the March primary election by a firm that represents Talarico. The last poll that was taken before Trump endorsed Paxton had the AG ahead by a dozen points in the first half of May.
more to come ...
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STATEWIDE |
| 1 |
U.S. Senate (R)
John Cornyn (I) 42.0%
 Ken Paxton 40.5% |
| 2 |
Attorney General (R)
Mayes Middleton 39.1%
Chip Roy 31.6% |
| 3 |
Texas RRC (R)
Jim Wright (I) 32.1%
Bo French 31.8% |
| 4 |
Lieutenant Governor (D)
 Vikki Goodwin 48.0%
Marcos Velez 31.5% |
| 5 |
Attorney General (D)
Nathan Johnson 48.1%
Joe Jaworski 26.4% |
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LEGISLATURE |
| 1 |
House District 37 (D)
Ozzie Ochoa Jr. 46.0%
Esmi Cantu-Castle 32.0% |
| 2 |
House District 41 (D)
Julio Salinas 39.0%
Victor Haddad 37.0% |
| 3 |
House District 41 (R)
Sergio Sanchez 46.0%
Gary Groves 38.0% |
| 4 |
House District 149 (D)
Hubert Vo (I) 38.0%
Darlene Breaux 38.0% |
| 5 |
House District 100 (D)
Venton Jones (I) 49.0%
Amanda Richardson 35.0% |
| 6 |
House District 125 (D)
Adrian Reyna 39.0%
Michelle Vela 34.0% |
| 7 |
House District 131 (D)
Staci Childs 45.0%
Lawrene Allen 28.0% |
| 8 |
House District 126 (R)
Stan Stanart 49.0%
Kelly Peterson 29.0% |
| 9 |
House District 49 (D)
Montserrat Garibay 33.0%
Kathie Tovo 28.0% |
| 10 |
House District 97 (D)
Diane Symons 42.0%
Beth McLaugnlin 30.0% |
| 11 |
House District 40 (R)
Celeste Cabrera-Huff 38,0%
Nehemias Gomez 37.0% |
| 12 |
Senate District 19 (R)
Marcus Cardenas 44.0%
Robert Marks Jr. 32.0% |
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CONGRESSIONAL |
| 1 |
Congress District 35 (D)
Maureen Galindo 29.2%
Johnny Garcia 27.0% |
| 2 |
Congress District 35 (R)
John Lujan 33.0%
Carlos De La Cruz 26.8% |
| 3 |
Congress District 9 (R)
Alex Mealer 35.8%
Briscoe Cain 31.2% |
| 4 |
Congress District 33 (D)
Colin Allred 44.0%
Julie Johnson (I) 33.2% |
| 5 |
Congress District 18 (D)
Christian Menefee 46.1%
Al Green (I) 44.2% |
| 6 |
Congress District 19 (R)
Tom Sell 40.4%
Abraham Enriquez 18.8% |
| 7 |
Congress District 32 (R)
Jace Yarbrough 49.0%
Ryan Binkley 21.7% |
| 8 |
Congress District 38 (R)
Jon Bonck 46.8%
Shelly deZevallos 18.8% |
| 9 |
Congress District 24 (D)
Kevin Burge 48.0%
TJ Ware 26.1% |
| 10 |
Congress District 7 (R)
Alexander Hale 45.3%
Tina Cohen 26.8% |
| 11 |
Congress District 37 (R)
Ge'Nell Gary 35.3%
Lauren Pena 35.0% |
| 12 |
Congress District 5 (D)
Chelsey Hockett 45.9%
Ruth "Truth" Torres 41.6% |
| 13 |
Congress District 16 (R)
Adam Bauman 27.9%
Manuel Barraza 21.1% |
| 14 |
Congress District 30 (R)
Everett Jackson 38.0%
Sholdon Daniels 24.3% |
| 15 |
Congress District 33 (R)
Patrick Gillespie 35.5%
John Sims 22.3% |
| 16 |
Congress District 17 (D)
Milah Flores 42.6%
Casey Shepard 32.4% |
| 17 |
Congress District 14 (D)
Richard H. Davis 44.3%
Thurman Bill Bartie 31.3% |
| 18 |
Congress District 1 (D)
Yolanda Prince 44.5%
Dax Alexander 22.0% |
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