Paxton Double-Digit Lead Evaporates
as Cornyn Up by 1 Point in Latest Poll
Capitol Inside
August 15, 2025
The GOP primary fight at the top of the Texas ticket in 2026 transformed overnight from potential blowout to dead heat when a new poll that was released on Friday showed U.S. Senator John Cornyn up by a single point on Attorney General Ken Paxton.
While the Emerson College survey gave Cornyn cause to celebrate after trailing the state lawyer by double-digits in previous polling on the U.S. Senate race, Governor Greg Abbott may feel the opposite after being left out of a field of possible presidential contenders for the GOP nomination in 2028.
The Emerson poll on Monday and Tuesday found Texas voters split on party lines on the current congressional redistricting effort that failed in a special session that ended on Friday without a single accomplishment for the Legislature's ruling Republicans. House Speaker Dustin Burrows gaveled the session to a close after coming up short again in a bid to field a quorum with only 95 members present for roll call. But Burrows confirmed that Abbott plans to give the GOP a second shot to pass a new U.S. House map in another summer session that Democrats who've been absent for almost two weeks have said they will attend.
Paxton led Cornyn by an average of almost 15 points in three previous polls on the GOP primary in the U.S. Senate battle that will be on the primary ballot in March. But Cornyn slashed the deficit below 11 points on average when he vaulted past the AG in the Emerson poll that found the incumbent with support from 30 percent of 491 GOP voters in the sample compared to 29 percent for Paxton the challenger.
The Emerson College survey found Colin Allred leading three Democratic candidates who are political unknown in the competition for the Democratic nomination in the U.S. Senate contest. Allred was the Democrats' nominee last year in an unsuccessful bid to oust U.S. Senator Ted Cruz. The Emerson poll found Cornyn ahead of Allred by 7 points in a hypothetical general election pairing. Paxton led Allred by 5 points in contrast.
The closing of the gap in the U.S. Senate competition in the GOP primary comes on the heels of reports about Paxton's marital troubles. The attorney general's wife - Republican State Senator Angela Paxton of McKinney - filed for divorce last month on "biblical" grounds amid allegations of adultery on the part of her spouse.
President Donald Trump could be the deciding factor in the Cornyn and Paxton dueling if he comes off the sidelines with an endorsement for one of the two Republican Senate contenders. Paxton could have the edge for a Trump nod as a regular guest at Mar-a-Lago in Florida where the two reportedly have played golf together recently.
Allred in the meantime is not a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination by any means. Democratic State Rep. James Talarico of Austin has been contemplating a U.S. Senate campaign and could seize the favorite tag if he enters the race. Talarico has been out-of-state for the past two weeks with Democratic colleagues who prevented a vote on the GOP's congressional map in the special session that ended today with barely a whimper.
Abbott has his eye on the White House and expect to enter the competition at some point after the Republicans here approve the redistricting plan in a second summer session after the Democrats return to Austin and let the Republicans vote on it.
Despite a windfall of publicity this year on issues ranging from school vouchers to border security to redistricting, the Texas governor failed to make the cut of possible presidential candidates for the GOP in the Emerson poll that listed a dozen options including U.S. Senator Ted Cruz.
Vice-President JD Vance was favored by almost 45 percent of the Republican voters in the Emerson College survey in Texas this week when Cruz and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were second and third with 9 percent and 6 percent support respectively in the question in the poll on the president's race.
Thirty-eight percent of the Texas voters in the Emerson poll oppose the redistricting effort here compared to 36 percent who backed it. But 41 percent said the House Democrats who've been absent should be arrested compared to 38 percent who disagree.
more to come ...
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