Crystal Ball Sees More Upside for Dems
on House Battlefield that Could Be Draw

Capitol Inside
July 3, 2022

Barring a blue wave from a backlash against Republicans on women's rights, gun violence and lies about election fraud, the competition for the Texas House this fall could boil down to eight to 10 races with the potential for three net gains or losses on both sides of the aisle.

If the 2020 presidential election results were replicated in 150 individual districts, Democrats would pick up three House seats while Republicans move two into their column in the November vote. That equates to a net gain of one seat for the Democrats in the Texas Legislature's lower chamber in 2022.

GOP leaders and lawmakers sought to do away with as many competitive seats as possible in the redistricting plans they approved in special session in September for the Texas Legislature and the U.S. House. The new state House map only contains seven true swing districts that President Joe Biden or Donald Trump carried two years ago with 51 percent of the vote

The GOP will be on the defensive in five of those in the general election compared to a mere two that Democrats will be fighting to hold. The Capitol Inside crystal ball for the fall currently has all seven ranked as toss ups just four months before the vote.

The Republicans expect to pick up a couple of seats that Republicans Kronda Thimesch of Lewisville and Caroline Harris of Round Rock are seeking in races that are coin flips at this point in House District 65 and House District 52 respectively. The biggest prize for the GOP on the House battlefield looms in the Rio Grande Valley where Democrat Luiz Villarreal Jr. of Mission is dueling Republican Janie Lopez of San Benito in House District 37 where Biden prevailed in 2020 with 50.6 percent. Trump garnered 51 percent of the 2020 vote in HD 52 when he claimed 52 percent in HD 65.

But Biden collected 50.6 percent of the vote in House District 118 where GOP State Rep. John Lujan of San Antonio is pit in a rematch with Frank Ramirez - the Democrat who the incumbent beat in a special election runoff in late 2021. Lujan won the HD 118 seat in a special election in 2016 in a battle with a Democrat who unseated him that fall. There should be no surprise if history repeats itself there this year.

The most realistic best case scenario for the GOP would be flipping HD 37, HD 52 and HD 65 while successfully defending the Lujan seat and House District 70 in Collin County, where Biden defeated Trump with 55 percent in 2020. Dallas Democrat Mihaela Plesa has the inside track in HD 70 over GOP foe Jamee Jolly of Plano in a contest that could be closer than the 2020 numbers would suggest.

Democrat Salman Bhojani of Fort Worth will be a substantial favorite in an open race in House District 92, which leaned Republican before its conversion on the new map into shuffling ground for Democrats in a move designed to protect incumbents in the area. Biden reaped more than 61 percent of the vote in the new version of HD 92 in the mid-cities suburbs between Dallas and Fort Worth.

The HD 92 and HD 70 are both ranked leans Democrat in early July. HD 65 is leans GOP. The list of House races that are too close to call at the time includes re-election bids by GOP State Reps. Morgan Meyer of Dallas, Angie Chen Button of Garland and Steve Allison of San Antonio.

Trump scored 49.7 percent of the vote against Biden in House District 108 where Morgan is up for a fifth term this year. Biden had 48.9 percent in HD 108. Trump beat Biden by a half point with only 49.4 percent in House District 112, which Button has represented since 2009. Trump had 50.4 in House District 121 where Allison is running again.