CAPITOL INSIDE

The rankings for statewide, state legislative and congressional offices are based on a combination of the polls, fundraising, voting histories, national trends, candidate quality, organization, issues and other factors that are unique to individual races. Legislative and Congressional districts not ranked are safe for defending party. Updated August 29, 2026

LIKELY DEM	LEANS DEM	TOSS UP	LEANS GOP	LIKELY GOP
CD 28 Cuellar (D)	US Senate Open (R)	CD 35 Open (D)	Governor Abbott (R)	Comptroller Huffines (R)
SD 19 Gutierrez (D)	CD 15 De La Cruz (R)	HD 52 Harris Davila (R)	Lt. Governor Patrick (R)	Land Com Buckingham (R)
HD 35 Longoria (D)	CD 34 Gonzalez (D)	HD 94 Open (R)	Attorney General Open (R)	CD 9 Open (D)
HD 40 Canales (D)	SD 9 Rehmet (D)	HD 108 Meyer (R)	Agriculture Com Open (R)	CD 24 Van Duyne (R)
HD 41 Open (D)	HD 34 Villalobos (R)	HD 112 Button (R)	Railroad Com Open (R)	CD 32 Open (D)
HD 42 Raymond (D)	HD 37 Lopez (R)	HD 121 LaHood (R)	CD 23 Open (R)	HD 20 Wilson (R)
HD 70 Plesa (D)	HD 74 Morales (D)	HD 133 DeAyala (R)	HD 61 Richardson (R)	HD 26 Morgan (R)
HD 144 Perez (D)	HD 118 Open (R)	HD 138 Hull (R)	HD 63 Bumgarner (R)	HD 55 Hickland (R)
			HD 66 Shaheen (R)	HD 65 Little (R)
			HD 67 Leach (R)	HD 89 Noble (R)
			HD 96 Open (R)	HD 106 Patterson (R)
			HD 97 McQueeney (R)	HD 122 Dorazio (R)
			HD 132 Schofield (R)	HD 127 Cunningham (R)

	INCUMBENT GOP	HD	2024 PRES	MOV	2024 SENATE	MOV
1	Open	9	Trump 58.0%	17.4	Cruz 54.7%	11.9
2	Bob Hall	2	Trump 59.3%	20.3	Cruz 56.2%	14.4
3	Mayes Middleton *	11	Trump 59.5%	20.4	Cruz 56.3%	15.1

	INCUMBENT DEM	HD	2024 PRES	MOV	2024 SENATE	MOV
1	Roland Gutierrez	19	Harris 50.1%	1,4	Allred 53.4%	9.5
2	Judith Zaffirini	21	Harris 50.9%	3.1	Allred 54.2%	11.2

	* Incumbent not running

	INCUMBENT GOP	HD	2024 PRES	MOV	2024 SENATE	MOV
1	Tony Gonzales	23	Trump 56.8%	14.8	Cruz 53.2%	8.2
2	Monica De La Cruz	15	Trump 58.5%	17.9	Cruz 53.5%	9.4
3	Beth Van Duyne	24	Trump 57.1%	16.1	Cruz 54.6%	11.4
4	**** Wesley Hunt	38	Trump 59.5%	20.9	Cruz 56.6%	15.5
5	Lance Gooden	5	Trump 60.1%	21.5	Cruz 56.9%	15.8
6	**** Troy Nehls	22	Trump 59.9%	22.1	Cruz 56.9%	16.5
7	Jake Ellzey	6	Trump 60.6%	22.9	Cruz 57.4%	17.2

	INCUMBENT DEM	HD	2024 PRES	MOV	2024 SENATE	MOV
1	*** Julie Johnson	32	Trump 57.7%	17.7	Cruz 55.2%	12.5
2	** Al Green	9	Trump 59.5%	19.9	Cruz 54.4%	11.6
3	* Greg Casar	35	Trump 54.6%	10.1	Cruz 50.6%	3.8
4	Vicente Gonzalez	34	Trump 54.6%	10.1	Cruz 49.7%	1.9
5	Henry Cuellar	28	Trump 54.8%	10.4	Cruz 48.8%	0.2

	** Not Running Again * Running in CD 33 ** Running in CD 18 * Running in CD 37

	INCUMBENT GOP	HD	2024 PRES	MOV	2024 SENATE	MOV
1	Denise Villalobos	34	Trump 50.2%	1.4	Allred 51.4%	5.4
2	Angie Chen Button	112	Trump 50.4%	3.4	Allred 50.2%	2.4
3	John Lujan *	118	Trump 50.7%	4.6	Allred 50.3%	3.2
4	Marc LaHood	121	Trump 51.6%	4.8	Cruz 49.2%	0.3
5	Morgan Meyer	108	Trump 51.7%	5.7	Cruz 50.3%	1.9
6	Janie Lopez	37	Trump 55.0%	10.9	Cruz 49.9%	1.9
7	Mano DeAyala	133	Trump 52.4%	7.0	Cruz 50.6%	3.5
8	Lacey Hull	138	Trump 53.3%	8.5	Cruz 50.5%	3.6
9	Caroline H. Davila	52	Trump 53.1%	8.2	Cruz 50.5%	3.7
10	Tony Tinderholt *	94	Trump 53.9%	9.6	Cruz 51.1%	4.7
11	David Cook *	96	Trump 54.6%	10.7	Cruz 51.4%	5.1
12	John McQueeney	97	Trump 54.6%	10.5	Cruz 51.7%	5.7
13	Ben Bumgarner	63	Trump 54.4%	10.5	Cruz 51.8%	5.7
14	Mark Dorazio	122	Trump 54.9%	11.3	Cruz 52.5%	6.8
15	Mike Schofield	132	Trump 55.9%	13.9	Cruz 52.6%	7.9
16	Keresa Richardson	61	Trump 55.9%	14.6	Cruz 53.3%	8.6
17	Jeff Leach	67	Trump 55.9%	14.4	Cruz 53.4%	9.0
18	Matt Shaheen	66	Trump 56.1%	14.6	Cruz 53.9%	9.6
19	Matt Morgan	26	Trump 56.3%	15.6	Cruz 53.8%	10.1
20	Charles Cunningham	127	Trump 56.9%	15.0	Cruz 53.9%	10.2
21	Mitch Little	65	Trump 57.6%	16.7	Cruz 54.9%	10.5
22	Candy Noble	89	Trump 56.8%	17.2	Cruz 54.1%	10.7
23	Hillary Hickland	55	Trump 57.1%	15.7	Cruz 54.1%	10.8
24	Valoree Swanson	150	Trump 57.4%	16.4	Cruz 54.2%	11.0
25	Terry Wilson	20	Trump 56.4%	14.6	Cruz 54.2%	11.1
26	Gary Gates	28	Trump 57.1%	16.8	Cruz 54.4%	11.3
27	Jared Patterson	106	Trump 57.6%	16.9	Cruz 54.9%	11.8
28	Richard Hayes	57	Trump 57.9%	17.3	Cruz 54.9%	12.1
29	Don McLaughlin	80	Trump 61.3%	23.3	Cruz 54.8%	12.4
30	Dennis Paul *	129	Trump 57.9%	17.7	Cruz 54.9%	12.5
31	Brad Buckley	54	Trump 57.7%	16.8	Cruz 55.0%	12.7
32	Sam Harless *	126	Trump 58.1%	18.1	Cruz 55.2%	13.0
33	Nate Schatzline *	93	Trump 58.1%	19.1	Cruz 55.4%	13.2
34	Jeff Barry	29	Trump 59.2%	19.9	Cruz 56.0%	14.6
35	Charlie Geren	99	Trump 59.7%	20.7	Cruz 56.1%	14.8
36	Paul Dyson	14	Trump 59.6%	20.8	Cruz 56.9%	16.8
37	Todd Hunter	32	Trump 62.1%	25.2	Cruz 58.8%	20.0

	INCUMBENT GOP	HD	2024 PRES	MOV	2024 SENATE	MOV
1	Eddie Morales	74	Trump 56.8%	14.7	Cruz 50.8%	5.1
2	Sergio Munoz Jr.**	36	Trump 52.4%	5.7	Allred 50.3%	3.5
3	Oscar Longoria	35	Trump 53.1%	6.9	Allred 51.2%	4.9
4	Bobby Guerra *	41	Trump 50.3%	1.6	Allred 51.7%	5.6
5	Mary Ann Perez	144	Trump 50.8%	2.9	Allred 52.3%	7.8
6	Armando Martinez **	39	Trump 50.7%	2.4	Allred 52.9%	8.4
7	Richard Raymond	42	Trump 49.8%	0.5	Allred 53.3%	9.3
8	Terry Canales	40	Trump 49.6%	0.1	Allred 53.8%	10.1
9	Erin Gamez	38	Harris 49.9%	0.7	Allred 54.7%	12.2
10	Mihaela Plesa	70	Harris 51.3%	5.7	Allred 54.4%	10.7
11	Mary Gonzalez **	75	Harris 51.7%	4.7	Allred 54.6%	13.2
12	Terry Meza **	105	Harris 51.2%	6.5	Allred 55.9%	15.2
13	Jon Rosenthal *	135	Harris 52.8%	7.8	Allred 56.4%	16.0
14	Suleman Lalani	76	Harris 51.8%	8.5	Allred 56.6%	17.0
15	Rhetta Bowers	113	Harris 55.2%	12.2	Allred 58.6%	18.6
	* Incumbent not running ** Unopposed Gen. Election