Christian OT Foe Much Closer
Than RRC Vote Count Shows

Capitol Inside
March 4, 2022

Texas Railroad Commission contender Sarah Stogner appears to have a much better chance of ousting incumbent Wayne Christian in a runoff this spring than the Republicans might think after scoring endorsements on Wednesday from all of her fellow challengers with the exception of one who is dead.

Stogner, a Monahans attorney, scored a spot in overtime with 15 percent of the vote in the primary election in a field of five that Christian led with 47 percent. Most Republicans and Democrats as well have written Stogner off as a fluke who would need a miracle to come from 32 points behind before the votes are cast in the runoff election that's set for May 24.

But an analysis of the GOP primary results in the RRC race shows that Stogner is less than 6 points behind Christian when the votes that former foes Tom Slocum Jr. and Dawayne Tipton received in round one are added to her total. Stogner would become the favorite in the runoff if the Republicans who voted for the late Marvin "Sarge" Summers in the primary followed the Slocum and Tipton leads and backed the runner-up in the runoff.

Stogner's first-round count would soar to almost 53 percent if the votes that Summers received posthumously were calculated into total that all four challengers on the ballot this week combined.

Stogner appeared to be playing the GOP leadership in Austin on Thursday when she retweeted a post that Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick put up to congratulate Odessa Republican Kevin Sparks of an outright victory that he claimed on Tuesday night in an open Texas Senate race in the district where she lives. Stogner packaged her own response to the Patrick tweet with a press release that Sparks issued on Wednesday to tout his win in the primary election in Senate District 31.

"Looking forward to working with Kevin to keep Texas energy strong!," Stogner exclaimed.

Sarah Stogner @Sarah4RRC Looking forward to working with Kevin to keep Texas energy strong!

Dan Patrick @DanPatrick West Texas and the Panhandle are home to freedom-loving Texans…and @KevinSparksTX will be their champion! He is a patriot who will fight for the conservative values of West Texas. Congrats, Kevin, and welcome to the Texas Senate!

Kevin Sparks @KevinSparksTX Thanks Dan! I’m looking forward to working together to keep Texas, Texas!

Stogner made history in several ways after entering the RRC competition on the final day for filing in December. She is one of the very few statewide candidates in Texas to advance to a runoff after showing no contributions in filings with the Texas Ethics Commission.

Democrat Gene Kelly had been the first and last Texas candidate to accomplish such a fete when he led a field of five U.S. Senate contenders in the 2000 primary election before beating a former state representative in overtime with 58 percent of the vote. Kelly lost to incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison in the general election with only 32 percent when George W. Bush led the ticket in his first winning race for president as the Texas governor at the time.

But Kelly had considerable name identification as a perennial candidate who never raised any money or spent more beyond the cost of the filing fee. While Kelly never actually campaigned for a multitude of public posts that he'd filed to seek, he appeared be a beneficiary of confusion among some Democratic voters who had mistaken him for the legendary actor and dance with the same name. The Texas Democratic Party gave Kelly an unintended assist when it decided not to waste its time and money messing with Hutchison so it could focus on the singular goal of trying to keep its Texas House majority.

Stogner is a completely different story - however - in light of an unprecedented strategy that she made public with a digital advertisement that featured her going up and down on an oil pump jack with no clothes beyond cowboy hat and boots and underwear with pasties on her breasts. The five-second video exposed Stogner's game plan that revolved on maximum shock value and the attention that she'd reap on social media and news stories that the mainstream media would be compelled to write.

more to come ...