Ken Paxton speaking in Grapevine at CPAC event	John Cornyn says he voted with Trump 99% of time

Trump's Dawdling on Endorsement
Gives Paxton Inside Track in Runoff

Capitol Inside
March 18, 2026

President Donald Trump left another broken promise in his wake on Tuesday night after the deadline for keeping candidates off the primary runoff ballot in the U.S. Senate race in Texas passed with the endorsement that he'd promised to make two weeks ago still up for grabs.

U.S. Senator John Cornyn was the big loser in round one of the Trump endorsement sweepstakes - having been on the verge of scoring it for two or three days after the primary election on March 3 when he led Attorney General Ken Paxton by one point with 42 percent of the vote.

An official nod from the president - coupled with Paxton's withdrawal from the race at Trump's demands - may have been Cornyn's only realistic path to victory in the GOP's overtime election on May 26. But Paxton would have had a chance to win the nomination even if Trump annointed the incumbent as he'd initially planned to do.

And that's the main reason that Trump backed off the plan to endorse Cornyn despite pleas from establishment Republicans who fear that Paxton would lose to Democrat James Talarico in November if he's the Senate nominee for the GOP. Trump couldn't stand the epic embarrassment he'd feel if he endorsed Cornyn and Paxton won the runoff anyway. The president may choose to stay on the fence for the Texas race after balking on the original endorsement plan.

The bet here has been that Trump would pitch his formal support behind the Texas attorney general at some point before the OT vote in the spring. The president may only leave the sidelines for the Texas Senate primary if he believes that one of the two contenders is all but certain to win. The most conservative candidates have had a decided edge in GOP runoff elections in the Lone Star State in contests that have been relatively close.

Cornyn has done everything in his power to portray himself as a MAGA stalwart who's voted in line with the president's position on almost every vote he's cast in the past 10 years. Paxton - in contrast - has been a darling of the right wing since his emergence in state politics as a Texas House member who won a seat initially in 2002. MAGA conservatives who've long despised Cornyn have viewed Paxton as a hero since he tried to overturn the 2020 election on Trump's behalf at the U.S. Supreme Court.

But Paxton may have won the runoff for all practical purposes when he refused to back down when it appeared Trump was on the brink of endorsing Cornyn in the immediate wake of the first vote. In a show of defiance that's extremely rare for a contemporary Republican here, Paxton stood up to the president when he declared that he would not quit the race if Trump picked Cornyn. And Trump backed down.

The Republicans' Senate runoff is one of 33 contests on the Texas overtime ballot, which will include GOP fights for attorney general and railroad commissioner and Democratic showdowns in races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

While the fight cards for round two in Texas feature 17 U.S. House races that are taking place on a new map, the Congressional District 35 is the only truly competitive seat on the ballot for the runoff election. CD 35 is one of five seats that the GOP-controlled Legislature targeted for Republican takeovers during the controversial redistricting process that Trump ordered here last summer. But the Republicans in Austin overestimated their support among Hispanic voters - and Democrats have a good shot to keep their hold on CD 35 in the general election this fall.

The Democratic primary runoff in CD 35 features Maureen Galindo and Johnny C. Garcia, who received 29 percent and 27 percent of the March vote respectively. State Rep. John Lujan is dueling Carlos De La Cruz in overtime in the battle for the nomination in CD 35. Lujan led De La Cruz by 6 points in the first round despite the runner-up's endorsement from Trump.

more to come ...