Texas Senate Race May Be Risky Bet
in District that's Prime for Dismantling
Capitol Inside
June 9, 2021
Ellen Troxclair might be about as close as the voters could get to GOP State Senator Dawn Buckingham in an open race for the Texas Senate District 24 seat in 2022. Troxclair is a former Austin City Council member who'd been its only Republican during a four-year stint that ended when she chose not to seek re-election in 2018. A former Texas House aide who's a married of mother of three, Troxclair is a Buckingham mirror image politically as a proven conservative who toes the party line. She's the epitome of suburban soccer mom.
Troxclair has expressed an interest in a race for SD 24 in light of Buckingham's decision to forego a re-election race in favor a campaign for Texas land commissioner next year instead. Troxclair could face an initial potential obstacle as someone who's not a current resident of the Buckingham district. She's a realtor, however, and has plenty time to correct the residency issue.
Problem is - Troxclair has no clue on whether any part of the Austin area will be located in SD 24 when the Texas Legislature or a federal court designs a new map for the upper and lower chambers during redistricting process in a special session this fall. With two Senate districts in West Texas short of population, a tiny sliver of Travis County that the current version of SD 24 contains could be the first to go when GOP lawmakers draw new boundaries for voting districts here later this year.
The dilemma that the ex-Capital City councilwoman would face on a possible Senate campaign is similar to those that other potential Texas contenders can expect to encounter in deliberations on races the Legislature and Congress here in 2022. Those who feel compelled to get an early start will be gambling that they're still in the districts where they hope to run after the new maps take effect with no guarantee on when that will be.
The bid for statewide office that Buckingham announced this week could be a sign that she might have been concerned that the Senate district that she represents will no longer include her as a resident in 2022.
Bell County Judge David Blackburn - a Republican who's been mentioned as a possible competitor for Buckingham's seat - might have better odds of sticking in SD 24 when the new Texas voting district's are approved by lawmakers or judges before the primary election that's currently set for March.
Bell County on the eastern edge of SD 24 accounted for almost 40 percent of the district's population when the current maps were drawn 10 years ago. SD 24 is anchored on the northwestern tip by the Abilene area with 70 percent of Taylor County's residents are current Buckingham constituents. Taylor County - the second largest in SD 24 with 11 percent of the population in 2010 - is Donald Trump country while the former president carried Bell County with a mere 53 percent of the vote last year.
GOP State Rep. Stan Lambert of Abilene could be weighing a potential bid for SD 24 himself along with House colleagues who represent parts of the Senate district now including Republican State Reps. Brad Buckley of Salado, Andrew Murr of Junction, Glenn Rogers of Graford, Hugh Shine of Temple, Shelby Slawson of Stephenville and Terry Wilson of Granite Shoals. Buckley and Shine are both based in Bell County.
It's conceivable that the Buckingham district could lose both Travis and Taylor with a shift of SD 24 to the east if it isn't dismantled altogether as a consequence of proximity. |
