Allred Leapfrogs Cruz in Latest Texas Poll
that Has Trump Lead Cut in Half in 2 Weeks

Capitol Inside
September 20, 2024

Anxiety soared on Friday in Texas Republican ranks when a new poll showed Donald Trump's lead here cut slashed in half and Democrat Colin Allred up on incumbent Republican Ted Cruz in the U.S. Senate race here for the first time since the congressional member from Dallas entered the competition last year.

After finding Cruz with a 4-point lead during the first week of September, the business intelligence-gathering firm Morning Consult showed Allred ahead by 1 point in a poll that was taken over the course of nine days that ended on Wednesday. Cruz and Allred will have shots to shore up their support at a debate that's set for October 15.

The Morning Consult survey of 2,716 likely voters in the Lone Star State showed Allred with 45 percent support compared to 44 percent for Cruz. The same poll found Trump leading Kamala Harris in Texas by 4 points after showing him with an 8-point advantage in the survey conducted here from August 30 through September 8.

"For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point," Allred said in a post on X on Thursday. "I don't know about y'all but I'm fired up and ready to WIN!"

Cruz led Allred by 10 points on average in two independent polls on the Texas Senate race before President Joe Biden pulled the plug on his re-election bid in July. An ActiVote poll in the second half of August had Cruz leading Allred by 10 percentage points. The University of Texas found Cruz leading Allred by 8 points in a survey on the Senate competition in the final week last month.

Cruz had a lead of almost a half-dozen points in six polls on the Texas Senate battle in the month of August. But the second-term solon has been ahead of Allred by a mere 2.3 points on average in the three surveys on the contest so far this month. Emerson College found the incumbent Republican leading the challenger by 4 points in the only other survey on the race here in September so far.

Cruz had an average advantage of 4.4 points in the nine independent polls on the Texas Senate fight in August and September. Trump led Harris by 6.3 points on average in Texas during the same two month span. Morning Consult found Trump up by 8 points early this month before it was cut in half here in the wake of a dismal performance in the debate with Harris on September 10. But the former president's lead in Texas fell to 5.3 points in September based on the three polls that were taken here this month the two federal races that will top the ballot in November.

Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke by less than 3 percentage points in 2018. But the state's junior U.S. senator had been ahead by close to 7 points in the polling on the fight with O'Rourke before escaping with a margin of victory that was less than half that amount.

Allred got a boost this week when Liz Cheney traveled to Texas to campaign on his behalf. "I've known Ted Cruz for 20 years. And it's been clear. Everybody who knows Ted Cruz, and I'm sure most of you in this room know Ted Cruz, nobody thinks Ted Cruz is a man of great honor," Cheney said at an event for the Democrat.

 

 


Independent Polling for November 5 General Election
TEXAS PRESIDENT DATE TRUMP HARRIS LEADER
September       Trump +5.3
August-September       Trump +6.3
Morning Consult 9/9-18 50 46 Trump +4
Morning Consult 8/30-9/8 52 43 Trump +8
Emerson College 9/3-5 50 46 Trump +4
University of Texas 8/23-31 49 44 Trump +5
Quantus Polls 8/29-30 49 42 Trump +7
ActiVote 8/14-31 55 46 Trump +9
Public Policy Polling 8/21-22 49 44 Trump +5
University of Houston 8/5-16 50 45 Trump +5
ActiVote 7/31-8/13 53 46 Trump +7
 
U.S. SENATE DATE CRUZ ALLRED LEADER
September       Cruz +2.3
August-September       Cruz +4.4
Morning Consult 9/9-18 50 46 Allred +1
Morning Consult 8/30-9/8 50 46 Cruz +4
Emerson College 9/3-5 48 44 Cruz +4
University of Texas 8/23-31 44 36 Cruz +8
Quantus Polls 8/29-30 50 43 Cruz +7
Lake Research 8/24-29 49 47 Cruz +4
ActiVote 8/13-29 55 45 Cruz +10
Public Policy Polling 8/21-22 47 45 Cruz +2
University of Houston 8/5-16 47 45 Cruz +2
ActiVote 6/25-7/18 54 46 Cruz +9
University of Texas 5/31-6/9 45 34 Cruz +11

 

 

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