Texas Senate Majority Could Be Near End
with Several Republicans in Peril in 2028
Capitol Inside
November 9, 2026
The Democrats have a good shot to take the Texas Senate majority back in 2028 in the nation's second largest blue state where four GOP members could be doomed in re-election bids if Donald Trump stays the course in his final two years as president.
State Senators Angela Paxton of McKinney, Tan Parker of Flower Mound and Adam Hinojosa of Corpus Christi probably would be the first to fall if the GOP fails to rise like a phoenix from the ashes of an all-time dumpster fire that Trump created with substantial help from top Republican allies in Texas.
But Republican State Senators Paul Bettencourt and Joan Huffman of Houston, Phil King of Weatherford and Donna Campbell of New Braunfels all could be serving their last term as well barring a dramatic turnaround with Trump leading the GOP until he's replaced in 2028.
After Democrats ran the table in 15 statewide races and captured the Texas House majority in the midterm vote last week, the state Senate is one of the last areas of Texas government that won't be controlled by Democrats. The Senate majority, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and a couple of Texas railroad commissioners is all the GOP has left at the state level here.
Yet Senate Republicans have been tentatively planning to strip the upper chamber's incoming president, Lieutenant Governor-elect Vikki Goodwin of the powers that the incumbent she ousted had for a dozen years until voters threw him out last week. The power-stripping scheme appears to have kamikaze written all over it as a move that's designed to circumvent the will of the majority of the voters who cast ballots in the midterm election here in 2026.
After losing to Goodwin by more than 6 percentage points at the polls last week, lame duck Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said in a radio interview on Sunday that he thinks the Senate Republicans should take the newly-elected chamber president's powers away like they'd been plotting to do behind his back.
Patrick's pitch for a Senate mutiny in defiance of the voters in Texas may have some scratching their heads in light of the outgoing Senate leader's plans to start his own firm so he can lobby for pro-business legislation that will be dead if it cannot pass a House where Democrats will be running the show in 2027.
While the presumptive new House speaker, veteran Democratic lawmaker Senfronia Thompson, has vowed to continue the bipartisan traditions that made the chamber one of the most effective in the country, the Senate Republicans could carry out the obstructionist plan in attempt to impress primary voters on the far right. The third-term Senate president said he's opening a firm called Patrick Strategies to help pass bills that are pro-business and conservative. Patrick was careful not to use the term lobbyist. But the chief purpose for having lobbyists is to help pass bills for paying clients. Some former legislators have lobbied for legislation without registering as lobbyists with the state.
In the event that Senate Republicans reject Patrick's advice and decide to respect the will of the voters and work with the Democrats who flipped the state, those who will up for new four-year terms in 2028 could probably expect their odds for winning new terms to rise some.
Hinojosa may have little hope for a re-election victory in two years regardless of the direction the Senate Republicans take as the senator for a South Texas district where Trump won by 12 points in 2024. The loss of Hinojosa - if no other seats changed hands in two years - would leave the GOP with 18 Senate districts compared to 13 for the Democrats.
Three Republicans who won last week - State Senators Bob Hall of Edgewood and Charles Schwertner of Georgetown along with incoming member Dennis Paul of Houston - beat Democrats by 3.3 percentage points on average in districts Trump won by an average of more than 17 points two years ago.
Trump won by less than 19 points in 2024 in Senate District 8 where Paxton expects to be on the ballot again in two years. The president beat Democrat Kamala Harris by slightly more than 18 points in Parker's Senate District 12 in 2024.
Paxton may have little or no chance for re-election based on her last name alone. The Collin County solon's estranged husband - outgoing state Attorney General Ken Paxton - lost to Democrat James Talarico by 12 points in the fight for the U.S. Senate here last week. Democrats hadnt won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988.
While the Paxtons have been separated since last year, Angela Paxton eschewed an opportunity to distance herself from the estranged spouse she's suing for divorce when she cut an ad for his failed Senate campaign this fall. The Paxton name alone could be all Democrats need to win SD 8.
GOP State Senators Paul Bettencourt of Houston and Phil King of Weatherford could be vulnerable in re-election races in 2028 in districts Trump won by 21 points. Republican State Senator Joan Huffman of Houston and Donna Campbell of New Braunfels could be in trouble as well in two years in districts where Trump defeated Harris by 23 points and 22 points respectively.
Cruz said during the weekend he thinks the GOP can stage a comeback in 2028. But that would hinge on Trump reinventing himself in the near future - a development that seems highly unlikely based on his behavior and actions during his second term.
more to come ...
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