Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan allies are saying that he has a third term with the gavel all but locked up regardless of whether he's facing multiple foes or a singular opponent in State Rep. David Cook as the consensus choice among four dozen Republicans in the leadership election in 2025.
Claims of an imminent victory often are a psychological ploy that politicians use as a magnet for votes from folks who want to be on the winning team. But they may be believable in the unique case of the Texas speaker who appears to have the inside track to support from a sufficient number of House Republicans if the Democrats are united behind him again for the speaker's vote in January.
Capitol Inside has identified 27 Republican representatives who are likely or certain Phelan votes at this point in time. At least two-thirds of those appear to be hard votes for the incumbent House leader. That would be more than enough in a chamber where Phelan would only need 14 Republicans if he had all the Democrats and the GOP's current 86-64 edge remained unchanged at the polls this fall. At least 14 of the House Republicans who appear to be backing Phelan are committee chairs who could expect to lose the leadership positions under a new speaker in most cases.
Republican Rick Perry, the longest-serving governor in Texas history, contended on Tuesday that Phelan had put the competition to rest for all practical purposes based on the number of House members who've pledged their support to him so far. Perry is serving as a volunteer adviser to the House speaker after campaigning for him in a fight with a primary opponent this year.
"The Speaker's race is over with," Perry said during an interview on Fox 7 in Austin. "I mean, (Phelan) has the votes. He has the commitments. And, you know, there may be people out there talking about that there's another avenue or something else, but they're just talking through their hat, in my opinion."
Cook may take some umbrage with the former Republican governor's forecast for the speaker's election after scoring support from almost four dozen colleagues at a meeting that anti-Phelan representatives and nominees staged late last week for the sake of voting on a consensus challenger.
The mainstream media has portrayed Cook's support at the private gathering in Austin as unanimous even though he was actually the group's second choice behind State Rep. John Smithee of Amarillo. Smithee withdrew from the competition for reasons that he hasn't disclosed.
Smithee's support may have stemmed to some degree from his role as the de facto leader of the opposition to Attorney General Ken Paxton's impeachment last year. Cook - in contrast - was one of 60 Republicans who voted to impeach the three-time elected state lawyer on charges of corruption tied to marital infidelity.
None of the Republicans or Democrats in the Legislature's lower chamber are bound to vote for any particular candidate in the official election on the House floor regardless of pledges they've made in the leadership contest. There's no guarantee that Cook, who's based in Mansfield, will be the only formal challenger in the election on opening day of the regular session.
