GOP Governor Could Win Nomination Again
and Still Come Out Behind in Texas Primary
Capitol Inside
February 12, 2026
| OFFICE |
FAVORITE |
| US SENATE R |
John Cornyn (I)
Ken Paxton |
| US SENATE D |
Jasmine Crockett
James Talarico
|
| GOVERNOR R |
Greg Abbott (I) |
| GOVERNOR D |
Gina Hinojosa |
| LT. GOVERNOR R |
Dan Patrick (I) |
| LT. GOVERNOR D |
Vikki Goodwin
Marcos Vélez |
| ATTORNEY GEN R |
Chip Roy
Mayes Middleton |
| ATTORNEY GEN D |
Nathan Johnson |
| COMPTROLLER R |
Don Huffines
Christi Craddick |
| COMPTROLLER D |
Sarah Eckhardt |
| LAND COM R |
D. Buckingham (I) |
| LAND COM D |
Jose Loya |
| AGRICULTURE COM R |
Sid Miller (I) |
| AGRICULTURE COM D |
Clayton Tucker |
| RAILROAD COM R |
Jim Wright (I)
Jim Matlock |
| RAILROAD COM D |
Jon Rosenthal |
| |
|
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The Capitol Inside crystal ball
sees Governor Greg Abbott winning one and losing two in the Texas primary election on March 3 with the securing of the GOP nomination in a re-election bid and the elimination of candidates he's backing for jobs on the ballot below.
While the forecast is tentative and fluid and could change during the most unpredictable time in modern American history, it sees Comptroller Kelly Hancock with a 3rd place finish in a GOP field of four and Nate Sheets losing in a potential rout to Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller in the first round of the voting here in 2026.
Abbott persuaded Hancock to give up a safe Texas Senate seat last year with an appointment to an open comptroller's post and promise to lift him to victory at the polls in 2026. But the projection here has former Texas Senate member Don Huffines squaring off with Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick in a runoff that the Republican governor's handpicked choice for the position doesn't make.
The governor appears poised to suffer his most stinging first-round defeat with North Texas beekeeper Nate Sheets as a challenger who could be on the losing end of a blowout in an attempt to knock off Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller in the primary election less less than three weeks now.
Barring wins by Hancock or Sheets or both in the primary election or a subsequent runoff, Abbott would be able to focus full-time on his own re-election at a time when everything imaginable is going wrong for the Republicans and setting the stage for a potential blue wave in the fall. Abbott will expect to face off with State Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin in the general election in November as the runaway favorites to win their respective parties' nomination in the gubernatorial sweepstakes in 2026.
Abbott faces the prospects of running as an underdog in the fall as a leader who's never lost an election in a long career in politics. But that's another story for a different day.
While this package of picks has been ready to go all week, a University of Houston poll that was released on Wednesday was on the same exact page in its findings on the GOP candidates in round one in statewide contests on the Texas ballot this year.
The Hobby School of Public Affairs survey found Huffines and Craddick on track for a runoff in the Republican competition for the job that Hancock is fighting to keep as the governor's handpicked candidate for the race. Huffines had support from 33 percent of the participants in the UH poll compared to 21 percent for Craddick. Hancock - the incumbent comptroller who's never been elected to the powerful position - was a distant third with 13 percent and hopes for a late surge with 29 percent of the GOP voters in the sample still undecided.
Abbott's candidate was faring even worse in the UH poll that showed Miller with 48 percent support and a 30-point lead over Sheets with 34 percent still unsure on the GOP battle in the farm and ranch chief's competition. The governor has been campaigning vigorously for Sheets after branding the incumbent as corrupt even though Miller has never been charged much less convicted of any criminal offense.
The governor's worst nightmare would come if Miller turned out to be the only Republican who emerged victorious in a statewide race in Texas in November. But a Democratic sweep in statewide races in Texas where they haven't won at that level in 32 years could be a real possibility at a time when President Donald Trump appears to be unraveling more each day and doing nothing to try to turn the GOP's fortunes around.
A table run by Texas Democrats in the general election is a real possibility for the first time in two dozen years of GOP rule in a state where the Abbott and the other Republicans have tied themselves inextricably to Trump. But the U.S. Senate competition gives the Democrats their best shot to snap the long losing streak in Texas with U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico gunning for the federal seat and destined for an apparent runoff in the spring.
While U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt has fared better in some polls than others in a longshot U.S. Senate bid in the majority party's primary election next month, the forecast here has the incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn dueling Attorney General Ken Paxton in overtime in the race at the top of the Texas ballot in 2026.
The crystal ball has U.S. Rep. Chip Roy and State Senator Mayes Middleton advancing to the second round in the fight to replace Paxton as the Texas attorney general. Roy and Middleton had support from 33 percent and 21 percent of the respondents in the new UH poll respectively. State Senator Joan Huffman was third in the GOP fight for AG with 13 percent in the Hobby School survey while Aaron Reitz was last in the pack with 6 percent.
State Senator Nathan Johnson would win the Democratic nomination for attorney general outright in the first round in a fight with primary rivals Joe Jaworski and Tony Box if the tentative forecast here is on the mark. The forecast here also has Democratic State Senator Sarah Eckhardt as the nominee for comptroller and Jose Loya as the winner in the competition among Democrats for the office that Republican Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham is seeking again this year.
more to come ...
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