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Paxton and Stogner Top Choices
in 25 Hottest Primary Runoff Duels
Primary Runoff Fundraising
Capitol Inside
May 22, 2022
The Capitol Inside crystal ball sees a unicorn beating a dinosaur in the top race to watch in the Texas primary runoff election on Tuesday as the nation's most famous family dynasty flames out in the second highest ranked contest that will be settled at the polls this week.
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton may be the safest bet on the overtime ballot in Texas despite a late surge by Land Commissioner George P. Bush in a contest that's a referendum on Donald Trump's popularity in the Lone Star State.
The high-rollers will be going with Sarah Stogner, however, as the victor in a bid to oust Republican Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian at the polls two days from now as a challenger who's outfoxed, outworked and lapped him in fundraising after refusing to accept contributions until this month.
Christian would probably be favored by two or three points in Las Vegas if the bookmakers there cared about low-level statewide races in Texas. But Stogner has been the pick here ever since the initial election - and after she raised almost twice as much campaign cash in two days in May than Christian has in nearly a year and a half - we see no reason to swtich horses now.
The third hottest runoff in Texas features a rematch in Congressional District 28 where Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo is fighting to save a long career in politics in a rematch with Jessica Cisneros. Cuellar defeated Cisneros by 4 points in the 2020 primary election. Cuellar entered the runoff up by 1 point in the March primary election. The challenger gets the nod here in a CD 28 race that's really a tossup.
The 10 most entertaining OT clashes on the verge of the second vote include four open races for the Texas House with Republicans Barron Casteel of New Braunfels, Ellen Troxclair of Lakeway. Carl Tepper of Lubbock and Terri Leo-Wilson as slight favorites in the forecast here on the final weeked before the election. Troxclair may have the best shot of that particular group in a bitter battle with Austin police officer Justin Berry for the GOP nomination in a new House District 19 on the western edge of the Capital City.
Troxclair would be a favorite at -2.5 points if we were setting odds on the HD 19 tilt. Casteel would enter Tuesday's vote at -1.5 points if that were the case in a catfight with runoff rival Carrie Isaac of San Marcos in an open fight for the House District 73 seat. Troxclair and Casteel led GOP foes Berry and Isaac by 3 points and 1 point respectively in the first vote.
The outlook here in contrast has House hopefuls Carl Tepper of Lubbock and Terri Leo-Wilson of Galveston on track for come from behind victories in round two on Tuesday after trailing David Glasheen and Patrick Gurski by 2 points and 3 points respectively in the primary election in March. After seesawing in recent days on an overtime duel between GOP State Rep. Kyle Kacal of College Station and Ben Bius of Huntsville in House District 12, the forecast here has the check in front of the incumbent's name as the current favorite on Sunday night.
Despite an initial deficit of a dozen points in March, Democratic State Rep. Michelle Beckley gets the call here in a battle in overtime with Mike Collier for the party's nomination in the race for the post that Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is seeking again this fall. Collier lost to Patrick by less than 5 points as the Democratic challenger in 2018.
A Stogner victory in overtime would represent the biggest and most incredible comeback in the illustrious history of the Lone Star State. Such a feat was inconceivable in the eyes of 99.9 percent of the Texas political world when Stogner scored a ticket to the RRC runoff with 15 percent of the vote in March when Christian garnered 47 percent.
A Monahans attorney, Stogner had been a political unknown who declined campaign donations to underscore a promise to operate independently from the oil and gas industry that's controlled the RRC since Republicans seized control of the regulatory panel more than two decades ago. She introduced herself to voters two days before the Super Bowl with an abbreivated video clip that showed her bucking up and down on a pump jack in stripper attire.
Despite Stogner's status as a overnight phenomenon on social media, Christian and fellow status quo Republicans wrote Stogner off as a flash in the pan who'd have no chance whatsoever with an empty war chest. After lulling Christian into a listless and lacklaster showing as a candidate, Stogner unleashed the second part of the most unconventional campaign of all time with two contributions worth $2 million in May - leaving him little time to play catch up after running on cruise control up to then.
Bush faced a 20-point deficit in the first vote that Paxton led with 43 percent almost three months ago. The son of former Florida governor Jeb Bush, the state land chief seized a slight lead in fundraising with $300,000 more in donor support than the incumbent during the runoff. Bush and Paxton rounded up $8 million and $7.8 million respectively between the start of 2021 and the week before the overtime vote.
Capitol Inside has Paxton and Stogner as -6 points and -1.5 points respectively on Sunday night. The AG's race is the only one in the top ten that doesn't appear to be close to call despite the odds here that are simply wild guesses in the most unpredictable time in American and Texas in our lives.
Republican State Senator Dawn Buckingham has the highest odds in overtime at
more to come ...
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Texas Statewide, U.S. House & Senate Runoffs
Mike Collier
Lt. Governor - DEM
Runoff: $487,963
Contributions: $2,252,254
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $115,613
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Michelle Beckley
Lt. Governor - DEM
Runoff: $12,499
Contributions: $60,537
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $5,437
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Ken Paxton (Inc)
Texas AG - GOP
Runoff: $2,013,987
Contributions: $7,842,492
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $4,401,026
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George P. Bush
Texas AG - GOP
Runoff: $2,323,232
Contributions: $8,054,496
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $731,237
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Rochelle Garza
Texas AG - DEM
Runoff: $333,716
Contributions: $1,095,543
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $36,745
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Joe Jaworski
Texas AG - DEM
Runoff: $372,852
Contributions: $1,440,795
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $73,326
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Wayne Christian (Inc)
Texas RRC - GOP
Runoff: $528,843
Contributions: $1,095,543
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $340,870
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Sarah Stogner
Texas RRC - GOP
Runoff: $1,667,400
Contributions: $2,000,124
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $0
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Sandragrace Martinez
Land Comm - DEM
Runoff: $1,038
Contributions: $3,049
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $0
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Jay Kleberg
Land Comm - DEM
Runoff: $372,852
Contributions: $1,381,985
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $238,310
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Dawn Buckingham
Land Comm - GOP
Runoff: $796,696
Contributions: $2,709,708
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $245,275
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Tim Westley
Land Comm - GOP
Runoff: $13,283
Contributions: $30,935
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $1,496
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Janet Dudding
Comptroller - DEM
Runoff: $69,518
Contributions: $94,834
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $26,601
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Angel L. Vega
Comptroller - DEM
Runoff: $740
Contributions: $1,232
Loans: $6,097
Cash May 14: $475
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Henry Cuellar (Inc)
CD 28 - DEM
Runoff: NA
Contributions: $3,050,481
Loans: $0
Cash May 4: $1,047,583
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Jessica Cisneros
CD 28 - DEM
Runoff: NA
Contributions: $4,399,753
Loans: $0
Cash May 4: $1,418,734
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Jasmine Crockett
CD 100 - DEM
Runoff: NA
Contributions: $566,522
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $108,312 |
Jane Hamilton
CD 100 - DEM
Runoff: NA
Contributions: $643,463
Loans: $10,000
Cash May 14: $113,158 |
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Ruben Ramirez
CD 15 - DEM
Runoff: NA
Contributions: $399,020
Loans: $12,250
Cash May 14: $79,695
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MIchelle Vallejo
CD 15 - DEM
Runoff: NA
Contributions: $290,962
Loans: $100,000
Cash May 14: $11,889
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Pete Flores
SD 24 - GOP
Runoff: $499,542
Contributions: $1,533,373
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $99,862 |
Raul Reyes
SD 24 - GOP
Runoff: $216,485
Contributions: $556,019
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $11,999 |
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Morgan LaMantia
SD 27 - DEM
Runoff: $265,536
Contributions: $512,061
Loans: $2,380,000
Cash May 14: $140,201
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Sara Stapleton Barrera
SD 27 - DEM
Runoff: $125,871
Contributions: $156,423
Loans: $296,943
Cash May 14: $11,889
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Texas House Runoff Democrats
Cas Hernandez
HD 70 - DEM
Runoff: $118,107
Contributions: $255,289
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $25,432
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Mihaela Plesa
HD 70 - DEM
Runoff: $29,053
Contributions: $109,751
Loans: $45,000
Cash May 14: $13,878
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Ruben Cortez
HD 37 - DEM
Runoff: $52,524
Contributions: $188,344
Loans: $10,000
Cash May 14: $20,532
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Luis Villarreal Jr.
HD 37 - DEM
Runoff: $54,987
Contributions: $148,141
Loans: $157,500
Cash May 14: $16,385
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Alexandra Guio
HD 114 - DEM
Runoff: $52,189
Contributions: $121,808
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $8,190
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John Bryant
HD 114 - DEM
Runoff: $33,210
Contributions: $123,795
Loans: $12,000
Cash May 14: $16,975
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Suleman Lalani
HD 76 - DEM
Runoff: $90,927
Contributions: $171,081
Loans: $145,000
Cash May 14: $28,165
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Vanesia Johnson
HD 76 - DEM
Runoff: $2,975
Contributions: $9,303
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $648
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Sandra Crenshaw
HD 100 - DEM
Runoff: $4,350
Contributions: $13,270
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $2,307
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Venton Jones
HD 100 - DEM
Runoff: $109,755
Contributions: $148,357
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $8,701
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Jolanda Jones
HD 100 - DEM
Runoff: $44,766
Contributions: $287,098
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $77,481
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Danielle K. Bess
HD 100 - DEM
Runoff: $36,041
Contributions: $158,896
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $14,145
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Texas House Runoff Republicans
Carrie Isaac
HD 73 - GOP
Runoff: $310,233
Contributions: $553,742
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $30,933
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Barron Casteel
HD 73 - GOP
Runoff: $421,879
Contributions: $768,577
Loans: $54,286
Cash May 14: $29,695
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Justin Berry
HD 19 - GOP
Runoff: $164,752
Contributions: $298,566
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $45,646 |
Ellen Troxclair
HD 19 - GOP
Runoff: $264,570
Contributions: $761,115
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $171,947 |
David Glasheen
HD 84 - GOP
Runoff: $11,039
Contributions: $77,952
Loans: $1,650,000
Cash May 14: $123,377
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Carl Tepper
HD 84 - GOP
Runoff: $295,251
Contributions: $751,701
Loans: $16,500
Cash May 14: $41,408
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Patrick Gurski
HD 23 - GOP
Runoff: $295,446
Contributions: $353,591
Loans: $9,732
Cash Feb 19: $29,777
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Terri Leo-Wilson
HD 23 - GOP
Runoff: $585,490
Contributions: $607,687
Loans: $126,500
Cash May 14: $59,810
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Kyle Kacal (Inc)
HD 12 - GOP
Runoff: $462,632
Contributions: $981,607
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $76,892 |
Ben Bius
HD 12 - GOP
Runoff: $182,060
Contributions: $254,715
Loans: $36,000
Cash May 14: $30,725 |
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Phil Stephenson (Inc)
HD 85 - GOP
Runoff: $53,800
Contributions: $121,615
Loans: $50,000
Cash May 14: $33,091
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Stan Kitzman
HD 85 - GOP
Runoff: $51,562
Contributions: $86,183
Loans: $1,750
Cash May 14: $17,566
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Stephanie Klick (Inc)
HD 91 - GOP
Runoff: $955,272
Contributions: $1,475,306
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $128,007
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David Lowe
HD 91 - GOP
Runoff: $262,567
Contributions: $362,091
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $5,955
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Nate Schatzline
HD 93 - GOP
Runoff: $311,737
Contributions: $422,206
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $79,247
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Laura Hill
HD 93 - GOP
Runoff: $404,341
Contributions: $662,108
Loans: $200,000
Cash May 14: $38,040
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Glenn Rogers (Inc)
HD 60 - GOP
Runoff: $759,939
Contributions: $1,335,406
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $97,996 |
Mike Olcott (Inc)
HD 60 - GOP
Runoff: $185,734
Contributions: $343,826
Loans: $350,000
Cash May 14: $145,225
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Shelley Barineau
HD 133 - GOP
Runoff: $292,468
Contributions: $764,144
Loans: $175,000
Cash May 14: $75,998
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Mana DeAyala
HD 133 - GOP
Runoff: $464,653
Contributions: $945,196
Loans: $30,000
Cash May 14: $85,603
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Elisa Chan
HD 122 - GOP
Runoff: $167,525
Contributions: $270,186
Loans: $1,675,000
Cash May 14: $94,409
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Mark Dorazio
HD 122 - GOP
Runoff: $109,506
Contributions: $203,518
Loans: $500,000
Cash May 14: $57,211
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Caroline Harris
HD 52 - GOP
Runoff: $251,763
Contributions: $406,403
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $30,262
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Patrick McGuinness
HD 52 - GOP
Runoff: $12,618
Contributions: $29,409
Loans: $500,000
Cash May 14: $104,926
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Stan Gerdes
HD 17 - GOP
Runoff: $212,592
Contributions: $413,320
Loans: $8,716
Cash May 14: $49,713
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Paul Pape
HD 17 - GOP
Runoff: $32,186
Contributions: $45,786
Loans: $300,000
Cash May 14: $41,789
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Frederick Frazier
HD 61 - GOP
Runoff: $274,567
Contributions: $639,910
Loans: $20,000
Cash May 14: $35,360
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Paul Chabot
HD 61 - GOP
Runoff: $30,919
Contributions: $148,872
Loans: $126,500
Cash May 14: $23,336
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Jamee Jolly
HD 70 - GOP
Runoff: $272,594
Contributions: $527,243
Loans: $0
Cash Feb 19: $87,673
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Eric Bowlin
HD 70 - GOP
Runoff: $18,183
Contributions: $312,159
Loans: $292,238
Cash May 14: $28,745
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Benjamin Bumgarner
HD 63 - GOP
Runoff: $267,578
Contributions: $388,341
Loans: $120,180
Cash May 14: $28,165
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Jeff Younger
HD 93 - GOP
Runoff: $239,539
Contributions: $269,934
Loans: $0
Cash May 14: $30,397
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