|
Crockett Leads Talarico by 12 Points
as GOP Rep Still in Hunt in Senate Bid
Capitol Inside
February 25, 2026
A new poll on Wednesday showed runoffs shaping up in the Republican primary in races for the U.S. Senate and state attorney general with the possibility of an outright win by U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett at the polls next week in the Democratic primary election for the federal post that's crowning the ballot here this year.
The second-term congressional member from Dallas seized a double-digit lead over State Rep. James Talarico of Austin for the first time in the competition for the Senate nomination when the University of Texas poll found leading by 12 points with 56 percent support during the first two weeks of February.
The Texas Politics Project survey showed U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton's running neck-and-neck with a 2-point advantage for the state lawyer that's within the poll's margin of error. But the poll showed U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt in striking distance of the frontrunners with support from 26 percent of the likely GOP voters in the survey's sample. Paxton was favored by 36 percent of the Republican voters who UT polled compared to 34 percent who gave Cornyn the nod.
The UT poll showed overtime in the probable cards in the GOP fight for a replacement in the Texas attorney general's office - with U.S. Rep. Chip Roy of Austin and State Senator Mayes Middleton of Galveston leaving other rivals in the dust with 40 percent and 38 percent support respectively. State Senator Joan Huffman of Houston was a distant third at 9 percent while Aaron Reitz was the choice for only 5 percent in the battle for the nomination in the open AG's race here.
Paxton enjoyed his largest lead in a University of Houston survey that was taken in the final 10 days of January and found the attorney general up on Cornyn by 7 points with 38 percent support. The UH poll showed Crockett leading Talarico by 8 points - the same advantage she had in a Texas Southern University survey in December.
The fight between Paxton and Cornyn appeared to be tightening in recent weeks as the incumbent and other Republicans from the party establishment warned that the Democrats would have their best chance to flip the Senate seat if the attorney general is the nominee. Paxton has been dogged throughout the race by personal woes - having been impeached in the Texas House on corruption charges in 2023 before his wife who's a state senator filed for divorce last year on "biblical grounds" in an apparent reference to allegations of infidelity.
Cornyn warned last week that GOP voters would be setting the stage for a down-ballot "massacre" if they pick Paxton to lead the ticket in the Senate race for the midterm elections this fall. Some Democrats from Austin to Washington D.C. have argued that Crockett would not fare as well as Talarico in a general election in Texas because she's viewed more as a firebrand who's considerably more liberal on paper on top of being a woman who's Black.
Talarico's first and only lead in polling on the Senate primary came midway through January when an Emerson College survey found him ahead of Crockett by 9 points. Talarico appeared to be on a roll in the past few weeks while holding rallies in venues that were packed in red strongholds like Lubbock. Talarico reaped a windfall of publicity last week when CBS refused to air an interview with Stephen Colbert on the Late Show in a move that prompted the host to post it on YouTube instead.
The prospects for a runoff in the Democratic Senate primary could still be a strong possibility despite the magnitude of Crockett's lead in the new UT poll. A runoff on the Republican side appears all but certain at this point with the first vote less than six days away. But Hunt could still have an outside shot at overtime based on his support in the Texas Politics Project poll
While the general election lineup is still up in the air in the Senate race, the Texas competition is leaving records shattered in its wake. AdImpact reported today that the Texas race is the most expensive primary in a U.S. Senate race in history - with more than $110 million already spent on campaign advertising alone. The data firm attributed $88 million of that sum to the GOP's contenders.
more to come ...
| 
