Abbott Avoids Ashnadoes with Target
Shooting Stops on Eve of Primary Vote
Capitol Inside
March 4, 2024
Tornadoes of ash were spinning up from the charred floor of the Texas Panhandle on Monday as Governor Greg Abbott prepared to head to the east and south for campaign appearances for a trio of challengers who are trying to oust state House Republicans who were strong allies just four months ago.
On the eve of a primary election that's produced record competition and bloodshed with the ruling GOP here, Abbott will make the transition from emergency director who seeks to unite back to leader with a monstrous grudge when he brings the first leg of a school choice revenge expedition to an end at an event in a San Antonio suburb tonight.
With the cattle industry all but destroyed by the largest wildfire ever witnessed in the Lone Star State, the most divisive governor in Texas history is attempting to do the same to the careers of 10 Republicans who defied him with votes last fall against a measure that would have subsidized private school tuition with taxpayer funds. Nine of Abbott's 10 targets in Tuesday's primary election represent rural areas.
The governor has stops set today for GOP contenders Joanne Shofner at Herschel's Restaurant in Henderson, Janis Holt at Pueblo's Tex-Mex Kitchen in Liberty and Alan Schoolcraft at the Hidden Grove in Schertz. Schoolcraft is competing against State Rep. Steve Allison of San Antonio while Holt and Shofner take aim at State Reps. Ernest Bailes of Shepherd and Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches respectively. All of Abbott's targets represent rural areas with the exception of Allison.
All of the representatives who the governor wants to eliminate swear that they opposed the school choice bill because they were doing the best they could to represent the districts where they live. Abbott's challengers - if any of them win on Tuesday or in runoffs in May - can expect to serve as legislators on a leash.
The Abbott retaliation push is one of the Texas primary's two central story lines that are inextricably tangled. The outcome of the second - GOP Speaker Dade Phelan's fight to serve a self-made disaster with Attorney General Ken Paxton's failed impeachment - will be directly affected by the results of the gubernatorial targeting. Abbott has remained neutral on paper in the House District 21 race that has Phelan pit against challengers David Covey of Orange and Alicia Davis of Jasper.
If Phelan wins the nomination again in HD 21, his odds for a victory in the 2025 speaker's election could plummet if Abbott wins a majority of the 10 contests in which he's invested millions of dollars of money he received for his own campaigns from donors. Capitol Inside predicted on Friday that Abbott would post a record of three wins and seven losses in the elimination effort aimed a recent allies who he'd endorsed with glowing praise in most if not all of their past campaigns.
The nine rural districts where Abbott wants to replace incumbents would lose 100 years of seniority if he ran the table in the first vote or overtime this spring. That is a real possibility. But Abbott could get skunked by the same token without a single victory in the vouchers vengeance campaign.
The list of the top five stories for Tuesday's election in Texas includes Paxton's own impeachment revenge tour that got under way last fall with a bang but has fizzled with a concerted effort by the AG to lift the challengers who he endorsed like Abbott has done in a fashion that would have been unfathomable until now.
Paxton dished endorsements to three dozen challengers in fights with House Republicans who voted to impeach him last spring. The AG actually recruited most if not all of the challengers to whom the governor has pinned his star. Paxton could share in the credit in nine of 10 contests that Abbott is targeting. But Abbott and Paxton are fighting each other in almost two dozen other House races that pit challengers against incumbents. The AG appears destined to lose most of the contests in which he's involved without assists from the governor.
One of the more intriguing subplots centers on the possible sway that Donald Trump and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick have in a classic vulture circling display with endorsements for Abbott challengers shortly before or during the early voting period that got under way two weeks ago. They would only deserve to take credit for wins in races that are extremely close.
more to come ... |
