Donald Trump led Kamala Harris by almost 7 points in Texas on Tuesday in a poll that showed his support here down some but less at risk than it's been in other borderline swing states that he carried in 2020 like Florida and North Carolina.
The ActiVote survey of 400 likely Texas voters over a two-week span found Trump with 53.3 percent support compared to 46.7 percent for Harris. Trump led President Joe Biden by nearly 9 points in a survey by the same pollster a month ago before handing the baton to the vice-president.
But ActiVote showed the Democrats with better odds in Texas Supreme Court races in a poll released on Sunday than the presidential competition and other statewide contests on the ballot here this fall. The Democrats haven't won at the statewide level in Texas in 30 years.
Republican state Supreme Court Justice led Democrat DaSean Jones by 1.6 points with 50.8 percent in the closest contest for statewide office in the ActiVote survey in Texas. Supreme Court Justice John Devine was up by 5 points on Democrat Christine Weems with 52.5 percent while incumbent Jane Bland was in front of Bonnie Lee Goldstein by 5.2 points at 52.6 percent.
Texas Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick led Democrat Katherine Colbert by 12 points with 56 support. ActiVote showed Ted Cruz leading Colin Allred by 8 point in a poll that it published on July 19.
Trump's dip in Texas failed to trigger alarms like polls this week that showed the race tied in North Carolina and Harris in striking distance in Florida. Trump had huge advantages over Biden in Florida and North Carolina over Biden in both places before the president pulled out of the race less than a month ago.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll of 500 likely voters found Trump up by 5 points on Harris in Florida with 47 percent support compared to 42 percent for Harris and 5 percent for independent contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump beat Biden by more than 3 points in the Sunshine State in 2020. But the former president - having become a full-time resident - had a much bigger lead there over Biden than he does now with Harris as the central foe.
North Carolina could be a coin flip with Trump leading there by 2 points on average in polls taken there since Harris emerged as the Democratic ticket leader. Trump defeated Biden by 1 point in North Carolina four years ago. But the Republican had a lead three times the size when the president was still in the race.
Trump enjoyed an advantage close to double digits in Texas with Biden as the main enemy. A more modest margin of 6.6 percent in the new ActiVote survey suggests that the former president is fairly safe in the Lone Star State with no guarantees at this point - especially when considering the dramatic shift in the race and Trump showing no signs of a rebound.
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