Trump Could Try to Derail Ken Paxton Bid
with Plans to Pick Winner Before Runoff
Paxton Staying in Senate Race No Matter Who Trump Picks
Capitol Inside
March 4, 2026
President Donald Trump promised to get off the fence in the U.S. Senate race in Texas on Wednesday morning with a social media post on his plans to endorse one of the Republicans for a runoff with a demand that the other pull the plug on his own campaign.
After weeks of teasing an endorsement that failed to materialize before Tuesday's primary vote, Trump decided to get in the game in the Lone Star State for overtime in the most telling sign to date of the way that Republicans from Washington D.C. to Austin the Democrats' new nominee James Talarico.
“IT MUST STOP NOW!” Trump declared in a Truth Social post about the mud bath that the fight for the GOP nomination between U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton has become with the likelihood of getting even nastier in the runoff in May.
“I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!" the president added. "Is that fair? We must win in November!!!”
Cornyn and Paxton were neck-and-neck at the finish line on Tuesday night - with the incumbent holding a paper-thin lead with 41.7 percent of the GOP primary vote compared to 41 percent for the state lawyer. U.S. Wesley Hunt - a Houston resident who gave up a safe congressional seat for a longshot Senate bid - finished far away in third in a field of eight with a mere 13 percent.
Talarico has Republicans on the verge of panic after defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett with almost 53 percent of the Democratic primary vote in the Senate race on the strength of his popularity among Hispanic voters first and foremost and his ability to attract independents and moderate Republicans who are fed up with Trump.
Crockett won the state's three largest counties - including her home base of Dallas County - and she beat Talarico in several major East Texas counties and areas on the outskirts of Houston like Fort Bend and Brazoria counties. But Talarico defeated the Dallas congressional member with two-thirds of the votes in Cameron, Hidalgo and Webb counties combined in border areas that had been Democratic strongholds before Trump flipped them to the GOP in 2024.
More telling - perhaps - is share of the votes that the Democratic candidates in the Senate race received as a group compared to the Republican contenders in the largest Texas counties and those that had gone red at the polls two years ago in border areas in particular. Democrats accounted for 69 percent of the primary turnout in Harris County, 65 percent in both Dallas and Bexar counties and 80 percent in the liberal mecca of Travis County where Talarico is a resident.
Seventy-seven percent of the primary turnout in Hidalgo County in the Rio Grande Valley was attributed to Democratic voters compared to 70 percent in Cameron County. Democrats were responsible for 84 percent of the first-round turnout in Webb County, which is anchored by Laredo on the Rio Grande northwest of the RGV. Trump carried Webb and Hidalgo with 51 percent of the vote in 2024 while scoring 53 percent in Cameron County.
Governor Greg Abbott and GOP lawmakers in Austin redesigned the Texas congressional map on orders from Trump last summer based on the premise that the Republican gains in South Texas and border areas represented a permanent realignment of voters. Based on the primary numbers, Talarico can expect to run as the favorite in the heavily-Hispanic areas that Trump converted for the Republicans in his third and most recent bid for president.
The prevailing sentiment in the Texas Capitol beltway initially on Wednesday was that Trump would be inclined to throw his weight behind Cornyn as the incumbent if he follows through with the pledge on picking sides in an attempt to defuse the need for a runoff here. But that would make it appear like the president was bowing to the party establishment powers at the expense of a candidate to whom he'd been closer personally ever since the AG tried to overturn the 2020 election at the U.S. Supreme Court on his behalf.
While Democrats would clearly rather face Paxton in the general election, the handing of the Senate nomination on a silver platter to a candidate who hadn't earned it the old-fashion way could be a double-edge blade for the GOP. Conservatives who despise Cornyn more ever might be prone to stay home in November if the candidate they've supported was pressured into backing out of a race that he could have an even shot to win in a runoff that typically favors the candidates who've run hard to the right.
It's not uncommon for candidates to drop out of runoffs that it appears they have no chance to win based on the deficit they face going into it. But it would be a first in the nation's second largest state if a candidate who trailed by a single point called it quits after advancing to overtime in a primary election. Such a development would be all the more monumental if the candidate who finished first in the opening round surrendered without a fight in OT.
Trump could seek to soften the pain, disappointment, embarrassment and anger that someone who quit a race they had a good chance to win with the carrot of high-ranking position or role in his administration. But that could be good for two years at best if Trump's disapproval ratings continue to spike to record levels.
Paxton has gambled his political career on the Senate race - having decided to give up a relatively safe position as the state's AG out of the belief he could knock off a longtime incumbent who would have a massive fundraising advantage as the establishment darling in the race. Paxton also is losing his wife, State Senator Angela Paxton, who filed for divorce after he'd entered the Senate race as a result of apparent marital discord due to infidelity.
But Paxton has perservered despite the distractions of a breakup the year after his impeachment in the Texas House by the Republicans who control the chamber. The attorney general led Cornyn in most of the polls on the Senate competition - and the race between the two was always expected to end in overtime.
Paxton supporters on the right expressed outrage with the possibility that Trump could try to squeeze him out of the race after he trailed the heavily-armed incumbent by no more than 1.2 points in Tuesday's primary election. Texas conservative podcast host Sara Gonzales pleaded with Trump in a social media post on Wednesday to cancel plans that he appears to have to push Paxton out of the race.
"Mr. President
@realDonaldTrump,
I am one of your biggest supporters and I am urging you as someone who is in the Texas grassroots: do NOT endorse Cornyn," Gonzales wrote on X. "It will be one of your biggest mistakes. The majority of Texas voters voted AGAINST Cornyn last night. We don’t want him!"
more to come ...
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