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* Dade Phelan (R) |
| 2 |
* Shelby Slawson (R) |
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* John Smithee (R) |
| 4 |
Todd Hunter (R) |
| 5 |
Ellen Troxclair (R) |
| 6 |
* Tom Oliverson (R) |
| 7 |
* James Frank (R) |
| 8 |
* David Cook (R) |
| 9 |
* Ana-Maria Ramos (D) |
| 10 |
Briscoe Cain (R) |
| 10 |
Cody Harris (R) |
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* Announced |
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A loose-knit collection of Texas House conservatives who oppose Speaker Dade Phelan are planning to huddle on Friday amid a push to consolidate forces behind a singular candidate for a leadership contest that currently features the incumbent Republican, five GOP challengers and a lone Democrat.
GOP State Rep. Shelby Slawson of Stephenville appears to be
a leading promoter for the anti-Phelan meeting that could be a mix of House Republicans who are in Austin and others participating on Zoom. Slawson announced for the speaker's race just hours before Phelan emerged triumphant in a primary runoff in late May.
Slawson's apparent role in the anti-Phelan unification effort has prompted her elevation to the second spot on the Capitol Inside House Speaker Rankings for 2025 below the incumbent who's seeking a third term in the dais.
The upcoming meeting's organizers appeared to realize that a handful of House Republicans who've declared themselves as speaker candidates were going nowhere as individuals with little or nothing to separate themselves from the pack with positions that are identical on the most volatile issues. The Republicans who want to replace Phelan after two terms in the dais may decide to vote on a consensus candidate in a move that would not be binding.
The current crop of official challengers includes State Reps. David Cook of Mansfield, James Frank of Wichita Falls, Tom Oliverson of Cypress and John Smithee of Amarillo. But the Republicans who meet this week could rally behind someone who hasn't entered the competition up to now.
The Republicans who want to give the incumbent speaker the boot have expressed support for a prohibition on Democrats serving as committee chairs. All hope to garner at least 76 votes in a GOP Caucus meeting before the official election on opening day of the 2025 regular session. That would eliminate the need for Democratic support on which all four GOP speakers relied since Republicans seized control of the Legislature's lower chamber in 2003.
And that essentially is why Phelan is still ranked as the favorite despite substantial problems that he has created for himself in two terms as speaker. With Republicans holding an 86-64 edge on the current House roster, Phelan would only need 14 GOP votes if the Democrats united behind him again and the major parties broke even in fights for the west wing in the November 5 general election.
Democrats could pick up a half-dozen seats in the House with Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as proven baggage for down-ballot Republicans in the top two spots on the ticket in 2024. The Democrats flipped a dozen House districts from red to blue in 2018 when Cruz escaped with a narrow victory in his first re-election race. Trump was the president at the time.
The more seats the Democrats wrestle from the GOP this fall, the fewer Republicans the current speaker would need if he has all the minority party's members in his camp. Democrats would take the House back if they pick up 12 seats this fall. State Rep. Ana-Maria Ramos of Dallas is the only Democrat who's running for speaker at this point in time.
The anti-Phelan representatives are taking partial pages from playbooks that Republicans have used in winning races for speaker. The GOP was preparing to assume control of the House in 2003 when a group of moderate Republicans sought to undermine Tom Craddick's bid to be the party's first speaker in Austin since Reconstruction in the 1880s.
The renegades were known as the ABCs - which was short for Anyone but Craddick. But Craddick locked the gavel down when he enlisted support from a dozen Democrats who were rewarded with committee chairs and other key leadership posts on the new speaker's team.
The veteran Midland lawmaker had bipartisan support in his three successful campaigns for the leadership post.
Republican Joe Straus knocked Craddick off in the 2009 speaker's contest with a coalition that included almost all of the Democrats after a general election that culminated with 76 GOP seats and 74 for the opposing party. With most of the Democrats on board, Straus needed very few Republican votes to win.
A small group of Republicans who opposed Craddick met on the New Years weekend in 2009 and selected Straus to be the consensus candidate. Dennis Bonnen depended on Democrats as well in his winning bid for the gavel in 2019.
Forty-six Republican representatives and GOP nominees for the House signed a letter in June with a vow to only vote for candidates who promise to exclude Democrats from committee chairmanships. That could kill any hopes that a consensus challenger has for bipartisan support and strengthen Phelan's status as the candidate to beat in January.
